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Danske Research previews the US September CPI report due on Wednesday.
Markets are pricing more than 80% probability of both the Fed and ECB staying on hold in the late-October meetings, so barring major surprises in data or forward guidance, the interest rate differential could remain relatively stable over the next few weeks.But while this week will be a quiet one in terms of economic data, one potential surprise factor could be Wednesday's US September CPI," Danske notes.
"Our forecast is in line with consensus (headline 3.6% y/y, core 2.5% y/y), but as the CPI will be the final major data point before the rate decision, it could carry even more weight for markets than usual," Danske adds.