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Nov 17 - 06:55 AM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Bulls Shouldn't Be Too Optimistic

By Richard Pace  —  Nov 17 - 04:40 AM

AUD/USD's topside may be limited, according to a daily client note from Commerzbank, which cites recent comments from Reserve Bank Australia Governor Phillip Lowe.

Lowe said on Monday RBA's recent rate cut was made in response to other central banks easing.
Australia's higher interest rate had fuelled inflows, lifting the AUD and making it harder to support the labour market.
This clear commitment to the AUD exchange rate as a decisive factor of monetary policy confirms Commerzbank's view that AUD's scope for further appreciation is limited.

AUD/USD is once again approaching September's high at 0.7400 and progress on the labour market, on which the RBA is focusing, is unlikely for now, according to Commerzbank.
On the contrary, the labour market data for October, due on Thursday, is likely to show that the unemployment rate has risen above 7%.

FX option flows can provide likely targets, but they aren't betting on much above 0.7500 anytime soon.
76.4% Fibo retracement of the 0.8136-0.5510 2018-2020 drop is at 0.7516.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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