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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
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AUD / USD
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USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 04 - 12:35 AM
  • -0.2%, as the base of a 0.6931-0.6892 Asian range, with lighter flow

  • Very different flow and price action today - profit taking into US payrolls?

  • Broadly as expected retail sales & trade data nL4N2DH0GF had little impact

  • Government launched an AUD680 million construction package nL4N2DH029

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track north - positive setup

  • Uptrend targets a test of 0.7020-32, 2020 high and Dec 31 top

  • Upper Bollinger band at 0.6902 suggests AUD overbought short term

  • London 0.6857 low and earlier 0.6931 high initial support-resistance

gbp 2 jun 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 04 - 12:05 AM
  • -0.25%, as markets saw a little profit taking in a quiet 1.2526-1.2579 range

  • Price action and volumes very different to earlier in the hectic week

  • E-Mini S&P gave up early 0.2% gains to trade -0.3%, Nikkei & AsiaxJP +0.1%

  • POLL - GBP to slide if UK doesn't seek a Brexit talks extension nL8N2DG35Q

  • Recent sterling strength is all about USD weakness and the risk rebound

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head north, positive setup

  • 1.2581 upper 21 day Bollinger suggests overbought - buy dips not breaks

  • Trend targets a test of the 1.2648-75 area April high and the 200 DMA



gbp 2 jun 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 03 - 09:40 PM
  • Trade balance 8,800M poll 7,500M, retail sales -17.7% poll -17.9%

  • Muted knee jerk response to data that came in close to expectations

  • Government launched an AUD680 million construction package nL4N2DH029

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track north - positive setup

  • Upper Bollinger band at 0.6906 suggests AUD overbought short term

  • Uptrend targets a test of 0.7020-32, 2020 high and Dec 31 top

  • London 0.6857 low and earlier 0.6931 high initial support-resistance

aud 2 jun 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 03 - 09:05 PM
  • Early gains on E-Mini S&P's evaporated and AUD profit taking kicked in

  • Trades -0.25% after initially up 0.15% - trade and retail sales in 30 mins

  • Government launched an AUD680 million construction package nL4N2DH029

  • Coronavirus appears under control, with no deaths in over a week

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track north - positive setup

  • Uptrend targets a test of 0.7020-32, 2020 high and Dec 31 top

  • Upper Bollinger band at 0.6911 suggests AUD overbought short term

  • London 0.6857 low and earlier 0.6931 high initial support-resistance


aud 2 jun 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 04 - 09:25 AM

Citi maintains a structural bullish bias on AUD but flags a scope for a correction in the near-term.

"AUD has earned a lot of attention given choppy moves on Wednesday characterised by the race to 0.7000 and subsequent capitulation. Our Sydney trader warns to stay liquid and patient: “in terms of price action yesterday, it looked exhaustive (if not the whole week). It felt like the final capitulations of legacy short risk and underweight AUD positions. The rally has been impressive in the local unit matched only by the market's disdain for the USD. Recent unrest across America only heightens the risk of another wave of contagion which can lead to further lockdown measures which will hinder the economic recovery process," Citi notes. 

 "Data wise, AUD April Retail Sales printed marginally better than expectations (-17.7%MoM vs -17.9%e, 8.4% prior). The deep negative print is unsurprising as it captures peak lockdown and there was little to draw from the details. In line with our Sydney trader, we may see some retracement lower continue but maintain our bullish thesis overall and think there could be upside risks to May retail sales with the economy recovering ahead of schedule," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 03 - 07:05 PM
  • Touch softer after closing up 0.55% on economic recovery hopes nL8N2DG1PB

  • German coalition parties agree 130 bln euro stimulus package nL8N2DG3XU

  • ECB prepares more financial aid for virus-stricken euro zone nL8N2DG4AJ

  • Authorities in Europe are getting their act together to spark growth

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head north - positive setup

  • Rising 1.2429 21 day Bolli suggests buying dips not breaks at these levels

  • Next stop for uptrend is a test of 1.1292, 76.4% March fall

  • London 1.1184 low & NY 1.1258 high initial support-resistance



eur jun 4 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jun 03 - 06:40 PM
  • AUD/USD opens +0.3% after volatile trading day; gains slow ahead of 0.7000

  • Dips to 0.6857 in NYK from 0.6982 Asia high on p/taking, fresh buying ensues

  • Supported by elevated risk appetite on signs of global economic rebound

  • Commodities rally boosts; copper touches Mar high, iron ore @ 10-mth highs

  • AU Apr rtl sales, trade bal due Thur; watched for economic recovery signs

  • Volatility here to stay, weekly close key for bulls nL1N2DG0ERnL4N2DF2UY

  • Resistance 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7000; support 0.6895-0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6840



CHINA IRON ORE: Click here

AUD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 04 - 08:30 AM
Societie Generale Research discusses its tactical bias on EUR and AUD. 
"A correction in US equities and in EUR/USD, against a backdrop of improving Covid news, and European fiscal movement, would be welcome. Relative Eurozone vs US growth expectations are already too gloomy, and should improve, and as long as we don't get a major FX policy change in Beijing (in favour of a weaker currency) the foundations for a better long-term euro outlook are being built.

The Australian dollar is even more overbought than the euro. The last time the AUD 14-day RSI was over 70 was the last time the spot was over 0.70, at the end of December. Consolidation here would be very healthy," SocGen notes. 

The market will overweight the odds of no deal until the UK sees an extension, and also, ‘a deal' covers a range of deals and the most likely outcome is that it's no a very good deal for the UK economy. On that basis, EUR/GBP is still likely to spend a decent part of the coming months in a 0.90-0.95 range," SocGen adds. 
Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 03 - 02:25 PM
  • NY opens near 1.1215, pair trades heavy early as US$ & yen are bid

  • 1.1184 trades on EBS, bids emerge then ADP sees big upside beat nL1N2DG0R7

  • Risk-on sentiment intensifies, US$ & yen sold, EUR/JPY hits to 122.51 on EBS

  • EUR/USD trades to 1.1252 on EBS, little pull back seen, near 1.1240 late

  • Techs are bullish, RSIs rise, pair closes above 61.8 Fib of 1.1495-1.0636

  • EUR/USD longs have the advantage but do face some risks nL1N2DG178















eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 03 - 01:30 PM

ANZ Research maintains a structural bearish bias on NZD through year-end.

"By virtue of its economy, New Zealand was highly exposed to the pandemic’s fallout. It experienced a total drop in tourism, which will weigh on domestic incomes, spending and house prices. Even as regional tourism resumes, and with government support, a weak global demand backdrop is likely to slow the domestic recovery.  The RBNZ’s dovish guidance – a willingness to consider negative rates and a preference for quantitative easing across the curve – has created a setting for domestic rates outperformance. This policy divergence is likely to dampen the NZD’s performance, particularly against more cyclical currencies that are policy constrained either by choice or by proximity to an effective lower bound," ANZ notes. 

"Our AUD/NZD forecast reflects this. We have lifted it to reflect the sustained weakness in the NZD leg, stemming from a relatively lower rate structure. Against the USD and JPY, however, we think the risk environment is the predominant driver. We are cautious on the global recovery and see rising risks from geopolitical tension as a potential downside catalyst to the market view. This is reflected in our NZD/USD forecast path to 0.55 by year-end," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 03 - 12:35 PM

AUD/USD bulls appear set to test 0.7020/40 resistance, after overcoming an overnight setback that had suggested the rally was set for a correction nL1N2DG0NN, but risks still loom.
After a brief dip below 0.6860, AUD/USD turned positive after the May ADP report nN9N2BW00J.
Solid gains for equities ESv1, yen sales driving AUD/JPY back up near 75.75 and USD/CNH falling back below 7.1200 helped lift AUD/USD near 0.6960.
Daily technicals are bullish again and already bullish monthly techs have been bolstered as RSI rises.
But, AUD/USD longs should tread cautiously.
If Friday's jobs report echoes ADP, U.S. interest rates could rally as investors consider the possibility of the Fed taking its foot off the gas pedal.
U.S. rates rallied after ADP's big upside surprise, and the U.S. dollar could reverse much of its recent fall if Friday's data sends rates higher again.
Another concern for AUD/USD longs is severely overbought daily RSI, which implies a correction could be coming.
AUD/USD's rally off the March low is unlikely to end but a correction to key support near 0.6770 or even to the 200-DMA is possible.




aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 03 - 11:00 AM

MUFG Research warns from chasing EUR higher around current levels.

"The EUR/USD rate has continued to advanced, breaking above the 1.1200 level, the top end of the range we have stated was now in place for EUR/USD. The prospect of a more robust rebound in Europe with COVID-19 well under control and more policy support on the way has helped drive EUR higher. The EU recovery Fund and the prospect of more QE from the ECB tomorrow that reinforces tighter periphery spreads are helping," MUFG notes. 

"However, the far bigger negotiation lies ahead. Assuming a deal at EU Leaders level is reached on the Recovery Fund, the deal must then be passed in national parliaments as part of the budget for the period 2021-2027. Merkel’s popularity is on the rise again following Germany’s handling of COVID-19 but Merkel is also on the way out and hence her influence domestically is still not what it was. The haggling in Germany this week is an indication of what lies ahead in Germany and indeed in other countries and is a risk that warrants caution in expecting EUR to continue advancing higher from here," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 03 - 10:55 AM

EUR/USD has rallied nearly 4.2% from the May 14 daily low (1.0775 EBS) and has even held today's gains after a massive upside surprise to May ADP employment data nL1N2DG0R4, but longs could get a wake-up call if May NFP data also sees an upside surprise.
While the dollar =USD is generally weaker today U.S. interest rates have crept higher after the ADP report.
Fed funds futures prices FFN1 are sliding while the rising U.S. Treasury 10-year yield US10YT=RR threatens to break trend line resistance from the February monthly high.
If the May employment data suggests the jobs market is less dire than expected, interest rates could rally further, leading, potentially, to dollar short covering if investors begin to wonder whether the Fed would take its foot off the gas pedal slightly.
EUR/USD gains from the May 17 low could quickly erode in that scenario as longs take profit.
Daily RSI is extremely overbought, suggesting a EUR/USD rally correction could be due.
A better-than-expected jobs report could sink EUR/USD toward the 200-DMA and old resistance in the 1.1010/30 zone.





eur/usd Click here

usd/10y Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 03 - 08:30 AM
  • May ADP employment results are much higher than estimates nN9N2BW00J

  • UST yields add to gains while fed funds & eurodollar prices sink a bit

  • US$ bounces slightly after data but market reaction is muted overall

  • EUR/USD dips below 1.1190 but quickly recovers towards 1.1200

  • Pair holds most of day's gains, holds above 61.8% Fib of 1.1495-1.0636

  • Daily, monthly RSI imply bull momentum intact, test of March 16 high likely

  • Key risks remain though, ECB & US claims on Thurs, May NFP data due Friday














eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 03 - 07:20 AM

Attached correct charts

No change is expected from Bank of Canada policy announcement at 10 a.m.
New York, 3 p.m.
London Wednesday, but any hint of optimism from the new governor could fuel CAD demand against the now ailing USD nL1N2DG0FW.
That would help USD/CAD complete its usual dire performance in June.
A study of USD/CAD performance for each June since 2000 shows it has fallen in 13 of the past 20 years (or 65% of the time).
Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it's a useful tool when combined with other factors.
USD/CAD has accelerated lower this week, after a big drop last week.
USD/CAD looks to be on course to register a close at the end of this week below the 1.3608 Fibonacci level, a 61.8% retrace of the 1.2952 to 1.4669 (December to March) rise.
That would increase the odds that USD/CAD will close down in June and would leave the 1.3357 Fibo, 76.4% retrace of the same 2020 gain, vulnerable to an assault. nL1N2DG0GYnL1N2DF0BRnL1N2DE0QFnL1N2DD09OnL1N2DD06W


USD/CAD Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 03 - 06:10 AM

Word "above" added to title

  • Many shorts seem to have been squared now, according EBS flow data

  • A build up of USD/JPY shorts led to the big squeeze higher nL1N2DF0BB

  • Biggest gain since May 11 puts key 108.85 Fibo under threat nL1N2DG0EO

  • USD/JPY hit 108.85 and then stumbled to 108.42 in Asia, up again in London

  • Technical outlook bullish as spot closed above the 200-DMA, now at 108.39

  • Our 107.75 2 week call option strategy expires on Thursday nL1N2D30FI

  • EUR/JPY's correlation with USD/JPY high, 30/60-day logs are +0.69/+0.57

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Daily Bollinger Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jun 03 - 05:15 AM

Despite recent EUR/USD gains, the options market has struggled to build a case for gains above the medium-term range highs, in the low/mid 1.12s.
Shorter-dated implied volatility has seen some demand, as it profits more from intraday spot volatility, but options past one month have been much slower to react.
The benchmark one-month implied volatility paid 6.8 Wednesday, but is up just 0.3 vols since EUR left the 1.0900 handle.
Risk reversals show implied volatility is back in favour of EUR calls over puts (topside) out to two months, but the premium is tame, and dealers have been loathe to add more, despite EUR/USD gains.
EUR/USD is back at levels seen pre-crisis and still below the August range top at 1.1250, where range binary option barriers reside -- which could be the level that sparks more bullish attention if breached.
For now, focus is on the European Central Bank Thursday.
Options are on alert for heightened volatility nL1N2DG0AZ, but dealers shouldn't ignore the effect of 6 billion-plus expiries on spot nL1N2DG0BK





1-week and 1-month EUR/USD 25D risk reversals Click here

EUR/USD implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jun 03 - 03:30 AM
  • 1.1292 is a 76.4% retrace drop from 1.1495. Break over implies 1.1495 return

  • Pair must reach 1.1369 to fulfil min tech correction of drop for this trend

  • 38.2% drop from 1.2556 to 1.0636 is 1.1370

  • 1.1203 is 23.6% retrace drop from 1.3995 (start ECB policy to avert crisis)

  • 38.2% drop from 1.3995 is 1.1736, 50% is 1.2167

  • 1.1685 is 23.6% retrace drop from all time high @ 1.6040. 38.2% is 1.2517

  • EUR/USD is testing levels that could open door for 1.17/18 nL1N2DG0EB

  • From l-term perspective 1.17-18 much needed value to sell within downtrend





EUR/USD Click here

EUR/USD Click here

EUR/USD Click here

EUR/USD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jun 03 - 02:25 AM
  • Overnight/Next day (Thurs 10-am New York) expiry options capture ECB

  • Dealers have added implied vol premium to highlight increased event risk

  • It's 13.0, vs 10.0 pre ECB - break-even for straddle 61 vs 47 EUR pips

  • Shows how much dealers must capture, in either direction before profit

  • Short dated topside vols at a premium - O/n 1.1250 paid 14.5 today

  • Recent EUR/USD gains leaves dealers wary of more topside potential s-term

  • Huge option expiries may provide a n-term anchor nL1N2DG0A3


Overnight EUR/USD implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 03 - 10:38 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's BoC policy decision. 

"Stephen Poloz didn't make any waves in his final monetary policy decision, with only a scattering of adjustments to scale back the central bank's market operations. The Bank left the overnight rate at what it deems its effective lower bound of 0.25%, and made no changes to its large-scale asset purchase program of Government of Canada bonds.The only change came via reductions in the frequency of operations for repo and bankers' acceptances, as functioning in those markets have improved," 

"That said, the Bank went out of its way to state that he endorsed the decision. With Poloz not making any major changes today, it might not be too long until Macklem puts his stamp on policy, with a lot of work still left to be done to bring the economy back to life," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 03 - 12:00 AM
  • Surged from an early 0.6886 low to 0.6982, then consolidated around 0.6940

  • Huge volumes at the Asia open and solid interest for the rest of the session

  • GDP as polls expected -0.3% q/q - Australia in recession nL4N2DG0IS

  • Technically AUD has gone from a corrective setup to bull market nL4N2DF2UY

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track north - positive setup

  • 21 day Bollinger bands a good indicator of an over stretched market

  • Upper Bollinger band at 0.6867 suggests AUD overbought short term

  • Earlier 0.6886 low & 0.7020-32 2020 and Dec 31 top first support-resistance

aud 3 jun 3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 02 - 11:40 PM
  • +0.2%, with solid risk appetite early, then a correction, E-Mini S&P +0.25%

  • Plenty of interest from the Asia open, traded a 1.2548-1.2615 range

  • UK to change immigration rules if China imposes HK security law nL8N2DF62M

  • Current cable strength is all about USD weakness and a risk rebound

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head north, positive setup

  • 1.2546 upper 21 day Bollinger suggests overbought - buy dips not breaks

  • Targets a test of the 1.2648 April high, then 1.2673 200 DMA

  • 1.2560 267M strikes and earlier 1.2548 low first supports

gbp 2 jun 3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 02 - 09:40 PM
  • GDP -0.3% Q/Q median forecast -0.3% and 1.4% Y/Y as expected

  • Knee jerk 20pt dip, from highly overbought levels

  • GDP impact likely short lived, risk and the USD to dominate

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track north - positive setup

  • 21 day Bollinger bands a good indicator of an over stretched market

  • Upper Bollinger band at 0.6871 suggests overbought short term

  • Earlier 0.6886 low & 0.7020-32 2020 and Dec 31 top first support-resistance


aud 3 jun 3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jun 02 - 08:45 PM

The Australian dollar's speedy 25% ascent from its March low of 0.5510 is no bear market correction.
Rather, it has the makings of a new bull market following a near nine-year, 50% decline from its 1.1081 peak in 2011.
The extended drop that culminated in a "spike bottom" and a quick reversal on March 19 is typical of major changes in trend. Strong technical signals of a nascent bull market come from Friday's daily close above the 200-DMA at 0.6658 and Monday's acceleration above the 55-WMA at 0.6725 for the first time in two years.
The break above 0.6823, the 50% retracement of the 2018-20 drop from 0.8136 to 0.5510, and 0.6825, the 23.6% Fibo of the 2011-2020 drop from 1.1081 to 0.5510, strengthens this notion.
The momentum of the AUD rally suggests a weekly close above the 100-WMA currently at 0.6925 is likely after a period of consolidation.
A test of the Dec 31, 2019 high at 0.7032 and the 200-WMA at 0.7286 will then follow.
A weekly close above the 200-WMA confirms a bull market.
Corrective declines should now hold support at the previous resistance of 0.6658-85.
Only a drop below 0.6373-78, the lows in early May, will jeopardize the scope for a full-fledged AUD/USD bull market.


AUD: Click here

AUD Monthly: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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