• Seasonal headwinds keep the yen pressured as USD/JPY tests 151

• Meanwhile, short-term flows are also supportive of the pair

• However, the divergence with rate spreads signals cross/JPY should be lower

• This underpins the view that cross/JPY upside is a fade

• Meanwhile, risk of an earlier BoJ hike may also limit upside

• Timing wise, JPY bearish seasonals often peter out from Apr 5

• Resistance = 151.30 (Mar high), 151.59-67 (200-day MAs), 152.00
USDJPY vs spreads

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)