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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Krishna K  —  Jan 27 - 11:56 PM
  • AUD/USD weighs on 0.7623 support, 23.6% of Nov-Jan rally as APAC stocks wilt

  • Sudden sell-off on Wall Street, talk of distress sales by hedge funds weigh

  • New virus variants, uneven distribution of vaccine rollouts sour risk mood

  • Clear break of 0.7623 1st hint correction has lot further to runnL1N2K305T

  • Initial target 0.7547-55 followed by 0.7503, the 38.2% Fibo of Nov-Jan rise

  • Resistance 0.7655-60, 0.7700; sell rallies

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 27 - 09:56 PM
  • -0.3%, as local stocks follow Wall Street south, busy 0.7623-0.7667 range

  • Next round of UK, Australia trade talks set for February nL1N2K22D7

  • Charts; momentum studies slip, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • 0.7635 rising lower 21 day Bollinger band and 0.7642 Jan range low tested

  • Key support around 0.7640 should prove resilient, unless the USD surges

  • Close below 0.7635 would target 0.7502, 38.2% Nov-Jan rise nL1N2K305T

  • Earlier 0.7667 Asian high then 0.7700 NY afternoon high first resistance

  • A soft close today could trigger a significant unwinding of USD shorts

For more click on FXBUZ


aud 2 jan 28 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jan 27 - 09:44 PM

The Australian dollar is on the verge of breaking strong double Fibonacci support at 0.7623-41 as a technical correction to its near one-way rally of more than 11% since November finally gets underway.

A clear break of this support is likely to trigger a decline to 0.7547-55 followed by 0.7503, which is the 38.2% retracement of the AUD's November-January rally.

Wall Street's selloff on Wednesday purportedly triggered by hedge funds selling long positions in stocks to pay for losses shorting videogame retailer Gamestop nL8N2K22EA and the Federal Reserve's cautious tone on the pace of the U.S. economic recovery nL1N2K21TK have provided the immediate catalysts for a long awaited market correction.

With quite a few global stock indexes having posted record highs in January nL1N2JF0DS, the massive price moves in many shares globally are indicative of a frothy market and offer ominous signs that a deeper stock market selloff is in the offing nL4N2K22LPnL8N2K22G4.

This is likely to result in rising risk aversion, triggering a correction in the commodities and metals markets nL1N2K20IV with a knock-on effect on the AUD.

Rising coronavirus cases and the uneven distribution of vaccine rollouts are also likely to weigh on risk sentiment, thereby increasing the risk of a AUD/USD drop to 0.7500

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 27 - 07:06 PM
  • -0.2% early as risk appetite continues to sour - E-mini S&P -8%

  • Australia/UK trade talks a work in progress, next round in Feb nL1N2K22D7

  • China shuns Australian coal and various foods, but not iron ore nL4N2K2564

  • Charts; momentum studies slip, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • 0.7638 rising lower 21 day Bollinger band and 0.7642 Jan range low in view

  • Key support around 0.7640 should prove resilient, unless the USD surges

  • Close below 0.7635 would be a bearish signal for 0.7502, 38.2% Nov-Jan rise

  • Earlier 0.7667 high then 0.7700 NY afternoon high first resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

aud jan 28 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 27 - 06:42 PM
  • -0.15% after closing -0.3% on broad USD strength and EUR weakness

  • English lockdowns set to last at least until March nL1N2K216Z

  • COVID toll continues to surge, as does vaccine rollout nL8N2K25OP

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 weekly and monthly moving averages trend north

  • Upper 21 day Bolli band capped this trend on close - 1.3753 resistance

  • Close below rising 1.3637 21 DMA needed to undermine current uptrend

  • NY 1.3659-1.3740 range is initial support-resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp jan 28 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jan 27 - 05:47 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 1% lower on rising risk aversion as stocks sell off globally

  • Wall Street rattled by retail investor vs hedge fund battle nL8N2K22EA

  • Fed cautious tone on economic recovery adds to risk-off tone nL1N2K21TK

  • London copper down 2.4%, Dalian iron ore weakest in 2 weeks; to weigh on AUD

  • AUD closes below 0.7725, 21-DMA, 1st time since Nov 3; opens 0.7551, 55-DMA

  • Decline nears 0.7624-41 double Fibo support; break opens 0.7600 and 0.7550

  • Resistance 0.7700-05, 0.7720-30 ; sell rallies to 0.7725 with 0.7750 stops

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 27 - 04:14 PM
  • EUR/USD falls below the daily cloud top & 55-DMA, hits 7-day low

  • 38.2% Fibo of 1.1602-1.2349 pierced as well but EUR/USD bounces

  • Daily bull hammer forms which gives longs some encouragement

  • Falling daily, monthly RSIs imply bear momentum is in place though

  • EUR/USD longs need break above 21-DMA, Jan 22 high to gain some control

  • For more click on FXBUZ





eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jan 27 - 02:42 PM
  • Risk-off flows favoring the dollar get USD/JPY past down TL from March

  • Surge past the 103.95 TL leaves prices o/b intraday, steadied pre-Fed

  • Statement a shade more dovish about recovery vis-a-vis vaccinations

  • Powell affirms Fed focus is on fully supporting uncertain recovery

  • Bulky net spec short positions could aid rise if TL becomes support

  • 104.18 high's by the B-wave high from Jan. 14, close above is next hurdle

  • Thur's cloud top, Jan's high and 100-DMA @104.32/40/46 are major resistance

  • Also watching 10-yr Tsy yields support by 1.0%, its January breakout point

  • Risk-off dollar bid tied to S&Ps drop. It's Jan. 15 pullback low is pivotal

    For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 27 - 02:08 PM
  • GBP/USD ends NorAm -0.12% at 1.3717; Wed range 1.3721-1.3659

  • Pair whipsaws firm on exp'd steady Fed, soft w/EUR after dovish ECB lean

  • Sterling should float to the top after EUR/USD undertow abates nL1N2K21FF

  • Fed holds rate says path of econ will depend on course of virus, vaccines

  • Fed holds policy steady as US econ recovery appears to moderate nL1N2K21TK

  • GBP puts in new 2021 high at 1.3750 vs USD, later firms to 8-mos high vs EUR

  • GBP/USD res 1.3759 Wed high, 1.3800 upper 30-w Bolli; supt 21-DMA by 1.3630

  • EUR/GBP falls 0.23% to 0.8832, Wed range 0.8855-13; EUR dogged by COVID, low rate growth angst

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 27 - 12:48 PM
  • Bull hammer signal generated Jan 26 gets negated today

  • AUD/USD falls from 0.7764 & hits 0.7644, bearish outside candle forms

  • Falling daily, monthly RSIs imply bearish momentum is back

  • Inverted monthly hammer reinforces growing bearish sentiment

  • Jan 4 daily low, 23.6% Fib 0.6990-0.7819 are key supports

  • If they break bears likely to pounce and push AUD/USD much lower

  • For more click on FXBUZ



aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 27 - 10:45 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research flags a scope for a downside correction in AUD/USD from the positioning and valuation front.

"Our FAST FX and Positioning models suggest downside risk for AUD/USD. The primary model for AUD/USD in our FAST FX model estimates that the exchange rate’s short-term fair value was 0.7468 at the end of last week and that the exchange rate was more than 1.5 standard deviations above this fair value," CACIB notes.

"Our positioning indicator also suggests that the AUD is trading in strongly overbought territory. So, position squaring-related downside risk remains high," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 27 - 09:52 AM
  • EUR/USD falls sharply, hits 7-day low on BBG headlines on ECB

  • ECB officials said to see markets underestimate rate cut odds-BBG

  • The 38.2% Fibo of 1.1602-1.2349 gets pierced, 1.2058 trades on EBS

  • Virtually no bounce seen, pair holds near session lows

  • Daily, monthly RSIs imply bear momentum is intensifying

  • January's inverted monthly hammer suggests bears taking control

  • Dec. 2 low (1.2040 EBS) is key support, stops likely below

  • Break of that support puts 1.1885/1.1935 zone in play

  • For more click on FXBUZ



eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 27 - 09:39 AM

Bank of America Global Research flags a scope for further flows-driven GBP upside in the near-term.

"GBP demand is strengthening. Our proprietary flows show both hedge funds and real money buying even more as GBP is rallying this year," BofA notes, 

"The long real money GBP position is a concern, but hedge fund positioning has only now turned positive and is far from the peak two years ago," BofA adds. 

m69.PNG

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Jan 27 - 09:00 AM

Credit Suisse discusses NZD/USD technical outlook and maintains a neutral and cautious bias in the near-term.

"We keep our cautious stance and bias for further near - term sideways trading in place, with the risk of a slightly larger “head and shoulders” top growing, which would only be negated with a move above .7240/48," CS notes. 

"Shorter -term resistance is initially seen at .7199/7205, above which would ease the immediate downside pressure and see a move back to .7217/25, removal of which would expose the key .7240/48 zone...Support moves initially to .7171/67, which ideally holds once more. Beyond here though, support is seen thereafter at .7128, removal of which would increase the pressure on .7103/7084, below which would now complete the larger top," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 27 - 07:29 AM
  • Despite above estimate AU CPI nL4N2K14MM AUD/USD sinks overnight

  • Downbeat risk sinks equities ESv1, copper HGv1, iron-ore DCIOc2

  • Safe-havens US$ & yen get bought, AUD/JPY sinks near 79.95

  • AUD/USD falls back below 10 & 21-DMAs, nears 0.7695 in early NY

  • Daily, monthly RSIs drop but AUD/USD trades in familiar 0.7640/0.7820 range

  • Fed risk looms, investors likely expect Powell to maintain dovish tone

  • For more click on FXBUZ



aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jan 27 - 05:47 AM
  • USD/JPY implied volatility crisis lows - below all G10 USD/majors

  • Fair value historic (actual) volatility measures even lower

  • Short vol positions bank premium as spot lacks volatility - profitable

  • DNT options can return big rewards for minimal risk nL1N2K00M0

  • FOMC now included in overnight options - implied volatility up marginally

  • Break-even for overnight straddle still a modest 32 JPY pips nL8N2K173U




Overnight expiry FX option implied volatility Click here

USDJPY 1-month volatility measures Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jan 27 - 05:09 AM

By their forward-looking nature, FX options can offer clues on the outlook for a currency pair, and there's been a clear shift in EUR/USD pricing and flows since the start of 2021.

Spot and option traders were hoping EUR/USD was mimicking price action from the turn of 2018-19 when it breached 1.20 and then 1.2500, but the 2021 rally stalled at 1.2349 and has been consolidating since.

EUR/USD option premiums have fallen in 2021 - implied volatility to crisis lows - and its additional premium for EUR call over put (topside) options has been erased in one- and two-month expiries.

The premium reduction comes amid a less-bullish EUR/USD outlook, which has seen more traders paring EUR call (topside) positions that would have benefited from a continued EUR/USD rally.
There's hasn't been much demand for options that would benefit from a break below 1.2000 barriers as yet.

Price action suggests dwindling conviction for volatility or directional moves at present, and even tonight's Federal Reserve policy announcement is failing to inspire nL8N2K173U.

For more click on FXBUZ











EUR/USD 1-3-12-month expiry option risk reversals Click here

EUR/USD 1-3-12-month expiry option implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 27 - 03:43 AM
  • Heavy cross but stalling just ahead of the 0.8830 Jan 21 low

  • Buying ahead a strategy but bear trend resumption risk increasing

  • 14-day negative momentum and RSI confirming price drop

  • Weekly support holds the key: converged 100-200DMAs at 0.8839

  • Close below the averages to open up 0.8671 May low point

  • We stand aside for now
















EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 27 - 02:45 AM
  • EUR/USD bulls have found their feet ahead of thickening daily cloud support

  • The daily cloud currently spans the wide 1.1938-1.2105 region

  • Pressure is building for eventual gains that will likely test 1.2202 Fibo

  • 1.2202 Fibo is a 50% retrace of the 1.2349 to 1.2054 January fall

  • We are looking to get long at 1.2120, this is ahead of Tuesday's 1.2108 low

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2K10H5

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 27 - 02:28 AM
  • All points north after strong Tues rally and long lower candle shadow

  • Major bull target 1.4303, 50% Fibo 1.7192-1.1413 Jul 2014 high-Mar 2020 low

  • Our 1.3640 long stop raised to entry, target 1.3785

  • 14-day momentum now confirming price gain but RSI hints at adjustment

  • New trend high at 1.3753, initial resistance: support at 1.3674, 10DMA line

  • Corrective action today, bulls need to hold the line at 1.3610, Tues low

    For more click on FXBUZ
















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jan 27 - 02:17 AM
  • OTC FX options expire before Wed's fed at 10-am New York/15-gmt

  • EUR/USD: 1.2100 (714M), 1.2150 (612M), 1.2200 (1.1BLN) 1.2250 (1.5BLN)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3700 (281M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.2600 (940M), 1.2750 (582M), 1.2850 (660M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.7300 (284M)

  • USD/JPY: 104.10 (430M), 104.50 (351M), 104.65 (502M)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jan 27 - 12:33 AM
  • AUD/USD -0.1% in cautious Asia, bulls take profit ahead of FOMC Wed meeting

  • Dovish Fed hopes persist but mainly priced in, traders grow warynL1N2JX1NY

  • Downside limited as optimism on U.S. fiscal aid package persistsnL1N2K104T

  • Global growth hopes underpin as IMF upgrades 2021 forecasts nL4N2K204D

  • AU Q4 CPI above forecasts but core inflation remains subdued nL4N2K14MM

  • Will not change RBA expectations; c.bank meets Feb 4 nL4N2JU0SQ

  • Support 0.7720-25, 0.7700, 0.7660-70 strong; resistance 0.7760-65, 0.7780-85

  • For more click on FXBUZ


AUSTRALIA CHINA TRADE: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 26 - 10:19 PM
  • -0.05% at the base of a 1.3730-1.3753 range with solid interest in Asia

  • UK, Switzerland to push ahead with financial services deal nL8N2K15JK

  • UK retailers report biggest annual price falls since May nL8N2K15E7

  • Fresh round of lockdowns is hitting the retail sector hard nL8N2K12T3

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 daily, weekly and monthly moving averages head north

  • Strong trending setup - blue sky until 1.4303, 50% of the 2014-2020 fall

  • Close below rising 1.3631 21 DMA needed to undermine current trend

  • Progress of the UK's vaccine rollout likely key for GBP nL1N2K2021

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 3 jan 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 26 - 10:13 PM

The old market adage 'the trend is your friend' is supporting sterling at present, but that could dramatically change if there are any significant problems with Britain's coronavirus vaccine rollout.

The UK's successful initial rollout of vaccines nS8N2HX042, while the European Union and U.S. remain a work in progress, is behind the current sterling strength. President Joe Biden is working hard to improve the U.S. programme nL1N2K12BJ, while the EU has vaccine supply issues nL8N2K16B9.

Sterling is trending north despite Britain's poor performance in managing the coronavirus, with record deaths and worse expected nL8N2K15MK, combined with significant teething troubles for UK manufacturers trading with the EU nL1N2K111I.

The dollar remains significant for GBP/USD, but sterling is resilient when the USD bounces and rises easily if the USD slips, which is a recipe for further gains.

GBP/USD had a bullish outside day on Tuesday and EUR/GBP a bearish one, reinforcing sterling's positive technical outlook. GBP/USD shows 5, 10 and 21 daily, weekly and monthly moving averages heading north, which is a strong trending setup, with blue sky until 1.4303, 50% of the 2014-2020 fall.
A close below the rising 1.3631 21 DMA would suggest consolidation, while the 1.3451 2021 low is pivotal support.

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 jan 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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