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Mar 15 - 09:55 AM

G10: The Recession Playbook; 3 Takes On How FX Behaves During Recession - JPM

By eFXdata  —  Mar 15 - 08:37 AM

JP Morgan Research provides a playbook for how FX behaves during recession but a US recession is still not part of its forecast for the next six months,

"1. The broad USD index has on average strengthened by 10% around recessions (ranges between 6% and 19%). Most times, the strengthening occurred at the onset of the recession although 2008 was different," JPM notes. 

2. USD, CHF, JPY & SGD are historically the top performers around recessions

3. In DM, NZD underperforms while EM weakens broadly vs. USD. EUR/USD has traditionally not been a good recession short unless it has been viewed as a growth currency prior to the recession," JPM adds. 

JP Morgan Research/Market Commentary


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