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Dec 11 - 07:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-GBP/USD Resilient Because Specs Are Punting Dollar

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Dec 11 - 05:35 AM

GBP/USD looks remarkably resilient during Brexit negotiations because traders are punting the dollar.
Cable traders are in line with traders across FX markets, who see the dollar falling.
Brexit risk is better reflected by the weakness of the pound's trade-weighted value. nL1N2IR0MF

A shock might depress cable for a while, but expectations are for more U.S. fiscal spending to add to the global stimulus that's supporting risk appetite.
GBP/USD is likely to be traded as buy on dip.

If a deal is struck, cable should rally, but will probably lag other dollar drops.
Chances are good EUR/USD gains will outstrip cable's, driving EUR/GBP higher.

That's because any deal struck will be biased in Europe's favour and the European Union will continue.
A solo UK will struggle initially.

The ideal spot for buyers is 1.2727, 38.2% of 2020's rally and September's 1.2676 low.
Buying is currently focused on 1.3209, the 38.2% retracement of the rise from Sep's low.

For more click on FXBUZ

GBP retracements 2020 rise Click here

GBP/USD retracements of pre- Brexit rise Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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