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Sep 17 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-Options Flag Risk Of A Post-Fed USD/JPY Setback
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 17 - 04:30 AM

Price action in USD/JPY options suggests the market thinks it's near the limit of its topside potential.
Option dealers will usually cover any short positions in the direction of travel, which can provide clues on how far they think it will go.
Demand has been seen for strikes in the 108.00-50 zone recently but not much above, even though the pair is testing 108.50.
A few 109.00-50 strikes are trading, but supply has matched demand here, and they trade at an implied vol discount, suggesting they are less likely to be reached.
Risk reversals which show the implied vol premium for JPY calls over puts (downside over upside strikes) on a 1-month expiry, have become softer but hold a substantial 1.5 vol premium for JPY calls, which shows the market is still more concerned about a spot setback.
Near-term focus is Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, with elevated short-dated vol premiums pricing the risk of increased spot volatility and risk reversals showing downside risk premium here, too.


USDJPY risk reversals: Click here

USDJPY IMPLIED VOL: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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