• EUR/GBP holds above recent range lows at 0.8600–20, preserving a modest topside bias

• However, price action lacks conviction as rebounds remain shallow

• Rate spreads & softer energy prices continue to point to higher EUR/GBP

• Despite this, market remains anchored within the well-defined 0.8600–0.8700 range

• Near-term GBP event risk elevated: BoE decision and Makerfield by-election (Thursday)

• Skew of risks leans GBP-negative on potential for a marginally more dovish BoE outcome

• Political backdrop also in focus - by-election fallout hinges on potential leadership pressure on Starmer

• Initial resistance at 0.8650–60, with a further hurdle at 0.8700
eurgbp vs factors


EURGBP daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))