EUR/USD could extend south to 1.10 this northern hemisphere summer on the back of expectations that the eurosceptic Lega and anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) will emerge from the next Italian election in a stronger position than at present.
Some polling models predict M5S and Lega could between them hold up to two-thirds of the new parliament compared with just over half now.
The next election could be held as early as September--with fears among investors that the vote could become a de facto referendum on Italy's euro membership.
Efforts to form an M5S/Lega coalition government collapsed on Sunday after the Italian president Mattarella rejected a eurosceptic pick for the key economy ministry.
Mattarella said he rejected Paolo Savona because he had threatened to pull Italy out of the euro zone nL5N1SZ0RE nL5N1T019Z.
The latest monthly Sentix index, published Tuesday, showed 13% of surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next 12 months.
This is the highest level since April 2017--before Le Pen failed to win the French presidential election a month later nL5N1T01F8.
EUR/USD was last at 1.10 in May 2017.
EURUSD: Click here