Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs expects Thursday’s US Durable Goods report to reveal a sharp rise in headline orders, but a soft core print, signaling early pressure on business investment from the trade war.

Key Points:

• Headline Durable Goods Orders:
  Forecasted at +5.0% (vs. +1.5% consensus), driven by a spike in commercial aircraft orders.

• Core Capital Goods Orders (ex-aircraft & defense):
  Expected at –0.2% (vs. +0.1% consensus), reflecting March declines in manufacturing survey components, particularly new orders and shipments.

• Implication:
  While the headline figure will appear strong, underlying business investment is likely weakening, offering one of the first quantifiable signs of trade war stress in capex data.

Conclusion:

Goldman warns that Thursday’s data may mask core weakness beneath a strong headline, as trade-related uncertainty begins to weigh on corporate investment decisions.