Sterling is likely to remain confined to near-term ranges as repeated failures by bears to sustain momentum below the psychological 1.3400 threshold and bulls' inability to take out resistance above 1.35, leave the currency lacking a clear directional catalyst. The pound edged slightly lower following less-hawkish commentary from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who signaled that policymakers feel no immediate urgency to raise interest rates. Tempering an otherwise bearish climate for sterling is optimism over an imminent U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension, currently awaiting approval from U.S. President Donald Trump. On the data front, Thursday’s slightly below-forecast U.S. PCE price index tempered hawkish Fed policy expectations, adding a less-dollar-friendly layer to the macro backdrop, which may prod sterling bulls to recast their focus on 1.35.

From a positioning standpoint, today's upcoming IMM positioning data is anticipated to reveal a decrease in GBP short bets. This aligns with the pound's 0.35% rise in the recently closed reporting period and the broader trend of reduced geopolitical and domestic UK risks, which had previously fueled significant sterling selling versus the dollar.

Technically, the pair is cradled by immediate support at the bruised 200-DMA of 1.3423 and recent trend lows just below 1.3380, with more significant support by the lower 30-day Bolli at 1.3352. On the upside, resistance sits at the daily cloud top by 1.3451, followed closely by 1.3481, the 50% Fib of 1.3658-1.3304 and capped by recent highs at 1.3504 and 1.3509 earlier this week.
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(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)