By eFXdata — Jun 13 - 01:30 PM
Societe Generale Research discusses its tactical bias on the USD this week.
"The US has retail sales and industrial production data to look forward to this week, but all eyes will be on central bank meetings. The FOMC is expected to hike by 50bp, the BOE by 25 or 50bp (the former more likely after this morning’s poor data), while the SNB and BOJ are likely to stay on hold. The BOJ will come under much more scrutiny now however, as higher US yields drag JGBs with them and the BOJs yield ceiling comes under real pressure at last," SocGen notes.
"Last week’s CFTC data tell us the market is long dollars but not exceptionally so. Yen and sterling shorts are substantial, and the net long euro position still stands out (as bizarre, if nothing else). Staying long dollars with trailing stops behind us, in case turnaround Tuesday sees a big correction?," SocGen adds.
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary