Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley expects the April US CPI report to show steady inflation trends, with both core and headline CPI forecast to rise 0.23% month-over-month, and the year-over-year core CPI holding at 2.8%.

Key Points:

• Core CPI: Forecasted to rise by 0.23% MoM, maintaining the 2.8% YoY pace.

• Headline CPI: Also expected to increase by 0.23% MoM, reflecting stronger energy prices offset by softer food inflation.

• Index Forecast: The NSA (not seasonally adjusted) CPI index is projected at 320.838.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley anticipates a balanced CPI print, with no inflationary surprises. The data should reinforce the Fed's cautious stance, as inflation shows persistence without acceleration.