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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Jul 17 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - Stalling For Now As US Yields Ease
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 08:40 PM
  • GBP/USD staged a decent pullback from the 2-year low at 1.2383 hit in London
  • Pair rallied to 1.2459 when US yields slipped and focus returned to Fed cuts
  • There wasn't any fresh GBP news, but hard Brexit concerns continue to fester
  • GBP/USD would need to clear 10-day MA (1.2491) for downward pressure to ease
  • Selling rallies the favoured strategy while Brexit uncertainty persists

audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 09:48 PM
EUR/USD - Holding Above Support As Lower US Yields Underpin
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 07:40 PM
  • EUR/USD managed a small bounce from 1.1200, as US yields eased
  • Dovish Fed expectations remain entrenched despite recent upbeat US data
  • EUR/USD support around 1.1180 where June 18 low & 76.4 retracement converge
  • Resistance at the 10-day MA at 1.1234 and break relieves downward pressure
  • EUR/USD likely to stay in narrow range in Asian session

eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 08:36 PM
USD/JPY - Retreats On Fanciful Fed Rate Cut Expectations
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 07:05 PM
  • USD/JPY drifts lower as chances of Fed 50 bps cut in July jumps to 35%
  • Hurt by fall in U.S. yields on concerns over never ending US-China trade war
  • Wall Street decline weighs; Netflix shares tumble 13% in after-hours trading
  • BOJ will swiftly mull easing if momentum derailed -Kuroda nL8N24I2E3
  • Japan trade data Thur, option hedges strangle pre-Fed volatility
  • Support 107.80,107.55-60, resistance 108.15, 108.35; 107.50-109.00 into Fed?

Bets on bold first rate-cut from the Fed png: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 05:00 PM
EUR/JPY: L-Term & S-Term Trends - ING
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 03:15 PM

ING summarizes its technical bias for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/GBP. 

EUR/USD

Long-term trend: Down. Still moving within an 8-year falling trend channel

Short-term trend: Neutral. No short-term strength, sideways between 1.1185-1.1435

EUR/JPY

Long-term trend: Down. A test of the solid horizontal around 111.95 should be expected

Short-term trend: Down. Deteriorating after making a lower high at the MA-50 line

EUR/GBP

Long-term trend: Neutral. Prices will meet strong resistance between 0.9000 and 0.9100

Short-term trend: Up. New short-term highs are confirming the uptrend

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Softer With UST Yields As Fed Cut Odds Rise
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 01:40 PM
  • USD/JPY ends NY -0.14% at 108.09, Wed range 108.33-108.06
  • Falling UST yields, narrowing US-JP bond spreads weigh on USD RVSP, RVMM
  • USD/JPY mid-range as Fed easing weighed against its effect
  • Weak U.S. housing data, lingering glbl trade & growth issues weigh on USD
  • USD/JPY res just above 10-DMA 108.30, supt by 107.80 recent low area

JPY Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-U.S.-Sino Trade Fears Gives AUD/USD Bulls An Opportunity
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 01:00 PM

President Trump stated on Tuesday that, if needed, the U.S. could impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods nW1N21900R.
The comment soured risk sentiment which sent emerging market currencies lower versus the greenback and USD/CNH CNH= up toward 6.8850 nL4N24I0Z6.
As a result, AUD/USD slid toward its 10-DMA today.
However, bids into the 0.6990 area coupled with a reversal in the greenback's rally stemmed the tide, putting Aussie bulls back in the game.
The bounce has resulted in a hammer candle forming near the 10-DMa along with the daily RSI turning up.
Meanwhile, the body of July's candle has shrunk which helps lengthen its lower wick and strengthen its positive implications.
Indeed, the signs suggest bulls are flexing their muscles ahead of Australian jobs data due Thursday.
Should the employment and unemployment rate components of the report suggest Australia's job market is on solid ground, short-term rates could rise as the chances of RBA cuts diminish RBAWATCH.
Since Australian 3-month bank bill futures still suggest one more RBA rate cut in the current cycle, a robust jobs report could drive AUD/USD above 0.7050/70 resistance and trigger stops.
A test of the 200-DMa and 0.7140/60 resistance zone is then likely.

chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - Bull-Friendly Data Gives Little Relief To Longs
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 08:55 AM
  • EZ June HICP revised up nL8N24I25N, US housing data below f/c nLNSHIEF7B
  • Data combination fails to inspire bulls, pair slips from day's 1.1222 high
  • Broad US$ bid, wider DE-US spreads & US-Sino trade fears weigh upon EUR/USD
  • Daily cloud helps cap, RSIs slip lower, techs take on a bearish tint
  • 61.8% Fib of 1.0340-1.2556, June 18 & July 9 lows are key s-t support
  • Break those supports opens the door to a 1.1100/10 test
  • Bulls need above 1.1285/90 to regain some control

chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 11:00 AM
AUD/NZD: Likely To Trade In 1.04-1.07 Range Over The Remainder Of 2019 - NAB
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 09:15 AM

NAB discusses AUD/NZD outlook and expects the cross to trade in a 1.04/1.07 range over the remainder of  2019 with higher levels likely to be seen closer to year-end.

"The easing biases by both the RBA and RBNZ look to be well priced by the market and reflected in the AUD/NZD cross. Similar below trend growth outlooks for both antipodean economies point to a range trading environment while a softening dairy outlook vs a stable bulk/metals outlook suggest the cross has some upside," NAB notes. 

"We still expect the AUD/NZD to trade in a 1.04/1.07 range over the remainder of  2019 with higher levels likely to be seen closer to year-end. AUD is more sensitive to China’s fortunes, thus a new bout of US led trade tensions is a key downside risk for the cross. But upside risk in the event of good news in this respect," NAB adds. 

Source:
NAB Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 09:48 AM
GBP/USD: New Lows But Negative Momentum Likely To Continue Into Next Tuesday - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 08:32 AM

MUFG Research discusses GBP outlook and flags a scope for further downside in the very near-term.

"Our short-term GBP/USD model below highlights the divergence with spot that illustrates the increased negative Brexit risk premium. But the flow of economic data is also now pointing to the potential of recession in the UK. The jobs data yesterday was impressive with the weekly average earnings, ex-bonus 3mth annual rate jumping to 3.6%, the highest since July 2008. However, the less closely watched jobless claims print is indicating a softening labour market," MUFG notes. 

"The pound is at new lows but we see still strong fundamental reasons for the negative momentum to continue, at least into the formal announcement of the new PM next Tuesday and possibly through to the BoE meeting on 1st August, the day after the FOMC meeting," MUFG adds. 

Source:
BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 08:36 AM
USD/JPY - Sting Taken Out Of Tuesday Rally, Price Struggling
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 06:15 AM
  • Small bid from the Wed open but not convincing as Tues rally fades
  • Tues 108.37 high intact as price keeps to a 108.11 to 108.33 range
  • 14-day momentuml positive but fading and RSI not confirming the Tues rally
  • Initial support at 107.80-83, recent lows: to stall further weakness
  • We maintain an offer by 108.50 for sub-107.00 but will revise on sub-107.80

USD/JPY Trader:

USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - Euro Zone Inflation Up, Easing Pressure On EUR/USD, A Little
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 05:10 AM
  • Euro zone HICP rises to 1.3% in June from 1.2% yy and vs 1.2%
  • Still below ECB's target but given spec shorts may ease pressure on EUR/USD
  • Inflation results probably mean short-term gain, longer-term pain for euro
  • EUR/USD today lifted 1.1200 to 1.1217 (EBS) on another slow day
  • Larger option expiries today lie higher should offer stiff resistance
  • EUR 1.8bln expiries 1.1220-1.1250. Daily cloud 1.1227-32 likely to cap

EUR/USD daily Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Traders Should Cover Risk Ranges Will Fall Further
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 04:00 AM

Factors weighing on EUR/USD are growing while traders have reduced bets it will fall.
That is likely to lead to a bigger drop, but vols near record lows mean traders should expect a slow slide and lower ranges, not a steep decline.
The gap in interest rates hurting EUR/USD may not change.
Data suggest the U.S. economy doesn't need much support, the Federal Reserve looks likely to provide some anyway.
The dollar should do well.
The euro zone is struggling and the European Central Bank looks set to ease, so the gap in rates isn't going to narrow for long.
Unlike Fed stimulus, an ECB rate cut would push rates deeper into negative territory.
As cash is searching for higher yields the euro will suffer, but it will suffer slowly.
The EUR/USD range has fallen gradually this year to the current 1.11-1.14.
Fewer traders are short, so it's likely to slip to 1.10-13, but huge option interests will underpin that range and a big rise in shorts is likely.

EUR/USD shorts and vol Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Down, Stops Eyed Nearby Ahead Data That Usually Weighs
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 02:45 AM
  • EUR/USD lower towards modest 1.1200 buying interests ahead EZ HICP data
  • A lack of inflation has continually weighed euro with core rate just 1.2% yy
  • Tech account stops eyed below 1.1190. Push to lower bound 1.11-1.14 eyed
  • Very low vols suggest significant move lower unlikely but, ranges may slip
  • Low vols while restricting moves also fuel carry trades, weigh euro
  • Big paring euro shorts ups chance sustained downside pressure

EZ HICP Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - Pivots Around 1.1210 In Quiet Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 16 - 11:25 PM
  • EUR/USD could only manage a 1.1207/15 range through the Asian morning
  • Sentiment is mildly bearish, but lower end of recent range deterring sellers
  • market still fully pricing in Fed cut, so EUR/USD may find support near lows
  • Support @ June 18 trend low & 76.4 retracement of 1.1005/1.1412 @ 1.1177
  • A break below 1.1175 targets a full retracement toward 1.1100
  • Resistance at 1.1239 where the 10 & 55-day MAs converge

eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Edging Towards 0.7000 As Small Stops Triggered
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 16 - 11:10 PM
  • Small stops below yesterday's low have been triggered to 0.7002 low
  • Selling emerged after Tokyo buying ended and AUD/USD hit 0.7020
  • Dalian iron ore is down over 2.0% and providing catalyst for the selling
  • Support at 0.6993 where 10-day MA and 38.2 of 0.6910/0.7045 converge
  • Break below 0.6990 would suggest short-term top in place at 0.7045/50
  • Extended moves unlikely ahead of key Aus jobs data tomorrow

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 17 - 01:24 AM
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 12:00 AM

EUR/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW Weakness in EUR is expected to extend lower but major 1.1180 support is unlikely to yield so easily. Expectation for EUR to trade sideways was incorrect as it staged a surprisingly deep decline but the down-move was checked by the strong 1.1200 support (overnight low of 1.1200). Downward momentum has improved and from here, barring a move above 1.1245 (minor resistance is at 1.1225), the weakness in EUR is expected to extend lower but the major 1.1180 support is unlikely to yield so easily (next support is at 1.1155).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected to trade with a ‘downside bias’ but is unlikely to challenge 1.1100. After trading in a relatively subdued manner for a few days, EUR staged a surprisingly sudden and sharp decline and tested the bottom of our expected 1.1200/1.1310 sideway trading range (first indicated last Thursday,11 Jul, spot at 1.1255). From here, a move below 1.1200 and the mid-June low near 1.1180 would not be surprising. However, downward momentum is not as strong as we prefer and EUR is unlikely to ‘accelerate’ lower. Overall, EUR is expected to trade with a ‘downside bias’ for now but is unlikely to challenge the year-to-date low near 1.1100 (there is another support at 1.1155). On the upside, only a move above the strong 1.1260 resistance would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW GBP could weaken further to 1.2365. While we expected GBP to weaken yesterday, the manner by which it crashed through several strong support levels with ease came as a surprise (overnight low of 1.2396). The rapid drop appears to be running ahead of itself but as there is no sign of stabilization just yet, GBP could weaken further to 1.2365. Only a move back above 1.2460 would indicate that the weakness in GBP has stabilized (minor resistance is at 1.2440).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP is in a ‘negative phase’, could trade towards 1.2340. We indicated yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.2515) that “a dip below 1.2470 is not ruled but GBP has to register a NY closing below 1.2440 in order to indicate that it is ready to move below the year-to-date low near 1.2410”. However, the rapid pace of how the price action evolved was unexpected as GBP plunged to a 27-month low of 1.2396 (before closing -0.89% lower at 1.2405, the largest 1-day decline in almost 4 months). The sharp decline indicates that the ‘sideway-trading phase’ that started last Friday (12 Jul, spot at 1.2525) has ended earlier than expected. From here, GBP is deemed to have move into a ‘negative phase’ and could move to 1.2340. On the upside, only a break of the 1.2490 ‘key resistance’ would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. On a shorter-term note, 1.2460 is already a strong resistance level.

AUD/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW AUD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6995 and 0.7040. Despite overall positive indications, AUD was unable to crack the strong 0.7050 resistance (high of 0.7045). Upward pressure has fizzled out with the rapid pull-back from the high and 0.7050 is likely to remain unchallenged for today. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and AUD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6995 and 0.7040.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Sustained AUD strength is only likely if it can move and stay above the major 0.7050/70 resistance zone. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

AUD continues with its advance and registered a 4-day gain of 1.62% yesterday (15 Jul), the largest since January. While upward momentum has improved, we have doubts about the sustainability of the current advance. As highlighted yesterday, AUD has to break above the major 0.7050/70 resistance zone in order to indicate that it is ready to move higher in a sustained manner. 0.7050 was near the high registered earlier this month (and in early May) while 0.7070 is the minor peak in late April as well as a declining trend-line resistance (not visible in the chart below). In other words, the levels between 0.7050 and 0.7070 are solid resistance levels and at this stage, the risk for a clear break of this zone is not high. That said, only a move below 0.6980 (level was at 0.6960 yesterday) would indicate that the upside risk has diminished. Looking ahead, if AUD were to move and stay above 0.7070, it would suggest last month’s 0.6832 low could be a significant bottom.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.6685/0.6725 range. NZD traded between 0.6696 and 0.6738 yesterday, relatively close to our expected range of 0.6700/0.6740. That said, the weak daily closing of 0.6698 suggests upward pressure has eased. From here, NZD is expected to trade sideways to slightly lower, likely within a 0.6685/0.6725 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Sustained NZD strength only if NZD were to close above 0.6740 in NY. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

NZD extended its advance and easily moved above the 0.6710 resistance (high of 0.6725). As indicated yesterday, NZD has to register a NY close above 0.6740 in order to indicate it is ready for a sustained advance. The prospect for such a scenario is not high for now but it would continue to rise if NZD can continue to hold above 0.6670 (level was at 0.6640 yesterday) within these few days.

USD/JPY: 

24-HOUR VIEW USD could test 108.50 but a move beyond 108.75 is not expected. Instead of trading sideways, USD rose to an overnight high of 108.37. Despite the relatively strong advance, upward momentum has improved by much. That said, USD could test 108.50 but a move beyond 108.75 is not expected. Support is at 108.10 but the stronger level is at 107.90.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD is expected to trade sideways. There is not much to add as USD traded in an ‘erratic’ manner as it recouped most of last Friday’s decline (closed at 108.22, +0.29%). For now, we continue to hold the same view from last Thursday (11 Jul, spot at 108.30) wherein USD is expected to trade sideways within a 107.50/108.95 range. Looking forward, the risk of a break of the top of the range first appears to be higher. However, USD has to close above 109.00 in order to indicate that it is ready to challenge 109.60. Meanwhile, the 107.50/108.95 range could remain intact, at least for a few more days.

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary
Jul 16 - 11:00 PM
AUD/USD - Firm Tone As Bids Lined Up Around 0.7000
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 16 - 09:40 PM
  • Talk of bids around 0.7000 helping to give AUD/USD firm tone in early Asia
  • Some demand for AUD/JPY also helping to underpin AUD/USD
  • Resistance at 0.7045/50 should prove stubborn ahead of Aus jobs tomorrow
  • Support at 0.6993 where the 10-day MA & 38.2 of 0.6910/0.7045 move converge

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 16 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - In Technical Trouble Due To Hard Brexit Fears
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 16 - 07:35 PM
  • GBP/USD dipped below 1.2400 first time in 2 years - ending day 0.89% lower
  • Market pricing in stronger possibility of hard Brexit nL8N24H4UL
  • Broadly stronger USD after better US retail sales adding weight
  • GBP/USD weak technically with next support at 76.4 of 1.1491/1.4377 @ 1.2172
  • Resistance at former support at 1.2439 and the 10-day MA at 1.2504

gbp/usd 1 Click here

gbp 2 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 16 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Completes Bearish Outside Day As USD Broadly Higher
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 16 - 06:20 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.43% lower, as strong US retail sales sent USD broadly higher
  • AUD/USD resistance at July 4 high at 0.7048 validated by fail at 0.7045
  • Pair completed bearish outside day with support at 10-day MA at 0.6992
  • AUD/USD likely to consolidate ahead of tomorrow's key Aus jobs data
  • RBA focused in labour market as main factor determining policy nRUAGIEF67

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 16 - 05:00 PM
USD: A Persistent But Shallower Path Of USD Appreciation Still Ahead - Barclays
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 16 - 02:00 PM

Barclays Research discusses the USD outlook in light of the latest batch of adjusting its FX forecasts last week. Barclays has moderated the path of EUR/USD to flat in the next quarter and a low of 1.08 (previously 1.06) in Q2 2020.

"While we still expect the Fed to ease in the face of persistently low inflation, sizeable external risks and a moderation of US growth, we think the intensity of cuts and the risks to the path have moderated. An indefinite suspension of further US tariffs and technology sanctions on China – and likely retaliation – imply a modestly better growth path for both economies and for connected trading partners, reducing risks to the global economy. The dominant feature of our prior forecasts was a small near-term depreciation of the USD due to a more aggressive path of Fed rate cuts, but a much stronger USD next year as the US economy rebounded more rapidly because of policy easing and a rising risk premium on non-US currencies (other than the yen) as growth elsewhere continued to languish," Barclays argues.

"The shift in the outlook suggests a moderation of both views. We now see a more persistent but shallower path of USD appreciation, as there is less negative bite from US interest rates in the near term and less of a rise in non-US risk premia, given the improved global outlook," Barclays adds. 

Source:
Barclays Research/Market Commentary
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