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Dec 27 - 01:55 PM

EUR/USD - Higher High And Low Helped By China Hopes, ECB-Fed Rates Convergence

By Christopher Romano  —  Dec 27 - 12:55 PM
  • EUR/USD about flat and in a 1.06115-6695 range on EBS

  • Closest high to Dec. 15's central bank meetings peak at 1.0737

  • Two-yr bund-Tsy yields spreads rose 39bp from Dec. 14 Fed day level

  • The 1.0737 peak was capped below 61.8% of the 202s's fall at 1.0744

  • Index has been consolidating the O/B rebound from Sept lows since then

  • Risk was on early on China reopening/demand hopes nL1N33G0FF

  • Those hopes are beyond the current big pandemic wave woes nL1N33H013

  • ECB stays hawkish amid its tardy inflation fight nFWN33E0BJ

  • But German businesses remain hopeful damage will be limited nL6N33H03O

  • EU govts using fiscal supports, Spain topping its props nL8N33H1MK

  • Wild card for euro could be energy prices amid moves vs Russia, response

  • Dollar consolidation is likely until top-tier US data late next week

  • If ISM, JOLTS and NFP beat, could see EUR/USD drop to props by 105

  • If data are weak, the 61.8% Fibo at 1.0744 will be in play

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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