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Nomura Research maintains a buy-ob-dips stance on JPY crosses, preferring long CHF/JPY expressions.
"The lack of sufficiently hawkish BOJ comments to out-hawk market pricing makes a bullish yen pivot difficult. Nevertheless, a fast pace move higher in USD/JPY towards 160 will further increase the risk of MOF intervention and/or a NY Fed rate check, thus increasing short JPY exposure from here does not seem to be sensible from a risk-reward perspective," Nomura notes.
"Thus, we maintain our buy-on-dips stance on JPY crosses, with with CHF/JPY standing out as an attractive long for the following reasons: 1) May seasonality is typically supportive (hit ratio of 90% since 2016); 2) EUR/CHF has not yet entered territory (below 0.91), where the SNB would likely push back against CHF strength; 3) rising equities, as markets become more “accustomed to” geopolitical headlines, providing a tailwind for JPY crosses," Nomura adds.