The following are brief expectations for today's September FOMC as compiled from the related notes of 10 banks.

Out of the 10 banks projections, 2 banks (Credit Agricole, and Standard Chartered) expect the Fed to remain on hold, while 8 banks expect a 25bp hike at today's meeting. 

Danske: We revise our call for Wednesday's FOMC meeting and now expect a 25bp rate hike. We maintain our forecast for 25bp increases at both the December and March meetings, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.25-4.50% towards the end of 2027 (prior: 4.00-4.25%).

CIBC: The Fed simply can’t wait on the sidelines, and it’s not because core CPI was one tick higher than expected. Failing to at least begin nudging the fed funds rate higher would raise two risks that exceed the risks to the economy from a higher policy rate.

Standard Chartered: We continue to expect the FOMC to hold policy rates on 16 September...An unneeded hike will have a reputational impact if data suggest inflation pressures are diminishing.

Bank of America: The Fed is now widely expected to hike Wednesday by 25bps. Sept FOMC communications likely lean hawkish. SEP will show 50bps of total hikes in '26, Waller may dovish dissent.

Credit Agricole: The Fed’s September rate decision is a very close call, as we see the upcoming FOMC meeting as a truly live one. Even if we have some sympathy for the arguments in favour of a hike, we continue to lean towards the Fed staying on hold once again.

Goldman Sachs: We added a 25bp rate hike at this week's September FOMC meeting to our forecast last Friday following the August CPI report. We continue to expect two cuts in 2027 but now expect them in September and December (vs. June and December previously). 

MUFG: The Fed is now expected to begin hiking rates today after last week’s disappointing US inflation data showed a lack of progress for underlying inflation back towards the Fed’s target. Additionally, the Fed is under pressure to begin hiking rates today to back up their inflation fighting credibility under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

ING: Markets are fully expecting a 25bp hike to 4.0% today, and a surprise hold or strong dovish dissent could have a materially negative impact on the dollar. But that’s a small risk, as the FOMC is likely mindful of any adverse Treasury-market implications. Openness to further hikes by Warsh can leave the dollar broadly supported.

UniCredit: A rate hike (our baseline) should be largely neutral for USTs as markets already discount a bit more than three hikes. If the Fed leaves rates unchanged, we see a clear risk of the long-end selling off as investors factor in a higher inflation risk premium, while yields at the short end could decline.

SEB: We change our forecast to a 25 bp hike after the higher-than-expected August CPI. The large emphasis that the Fed has put on this data makes it very hard for them to credibly abstain from a hike. Still, uncertainty is unusually high.