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Nov 10 - 09:55 AM
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CIBC: Hot October CPI Leaves Fed on Track to Deliver a December Hike

By eFXdata  —  Nov 10 - 09:08 AM

CIBC Research reviews the October CPI report.

"Both headline and core CPI came in hotter than consensus expectation for October, solidifying the odds of a December rate hike. Total CPI grew 0.4% m/m, higher than the 0.3% expected by the consensus. Gasoline explained almost all of the slowdown in the monthly pace of headline inflation. Food inflation saw a notable pick up this month as its monthly pace increased from 0% to 0.5% in October, both food at home and restaurants accelerated. Core CPI grew 0.3% m/m, higher than the consensus expectation of 0.2%. Core goods increased 0.2% m/m, a touch below last month’s pace, the deceleration is partly due to a monthly contraction in used cars and trucks after the solid growth last month. On core services, shelter increased 0.3%, slightly slower than September due to slower growth in hotels. Transportation services posted a solid growth of 0.8%, the highest since January, driven by motor vehicles related services such as motor vehicle insurance and fees," CIBC notes.

"With both headline and core CPI firmer than expected and the upside surprise was somewhat broad-based, we think that will convince the FOMC to deliver a 25 bps hike in its upcoming December meeting," CIBC adds.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary

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