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Nov 30 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Bulls Should Be Wary Of ECB's Line In The Sand

By Richard Pace  —  Nov 30 - 05:15 AM

EUR/USD is approaching September's two-plus-year high and a wealth of option barriers and related resistance around 1.20, but bulls should also remember the European Central Bank's comments when EUR/USD last traded at 1.2000.

The ECB's chief economist, Phillip Lane, was quick to comment on EUR/USD breaching 1.2000 in September, stating that the EUR/USD exchange rate does matter and is endogenous to monetary policy.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will be speaking Monday and Tuesday, and there is an ECB meeting on Dec.
10 - opportunities to air any displeasure with the exchange rate.

EUR/USD FX options aren't betting as heavily on the topside as they were in July and August, certainly for a near-term break higher nL1N2IG0CL.

That doesn't mean EUR/USD won't keep gaining, but it's likely to remain a grind, at least until after the ECB meeting, when the central bank's outlook and expectations should be clearer.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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