The dollar index turned soft on Friday as the U.S. currency's recent recovery ran out of breath in the face of softer U.S. Treasury yields, though it managed to trim the worst of the losses as the U.S. session wore on. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller did the dollar no favors, and more Fed bashing from U.S. President Donald Trump also weighed on the greenback. Though U.S. housing starts came in above-forecast overall, single-family housing starts -- which account for the bulk of homebuilding -- dropped 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 883,000 units last month. The dollar finally managed to begin clawing back a portion of its losses after 10 a.m. and the release of unexpectedly strong University of Michigan sentiment. EUR/USD bounced off its trend low, USD/JPY turned positive as Japan election angst took over, USD/JPY failed in its foray above the daily cloud and AUD/USD's rebound fizzled somewhat.

U.S. Treasury yields fell 2-5bp across maturities and the 2s-10s curve steepened by about a basis point. The S&P 500 was 0.09% lower in New York afternoon trade, with sentiment hurt by a Financial Times that said President Donald Trump was pushing for steep new tariffs -- at least 15% to 20% -- on all European Union goods.

WTI crude eased 0.17% as the mixed the U.S. economic data offset worries the European Union's latest for its war in Ukraine could reduce oil supplies.

Copper rallied 1.52%, driven by Chinese buyers, hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal and higher risk appetite among other investors.

Gold advanced 0.4% as the weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.21%, USD/JPY +0.11%, GBP/USD -0.04%, AUD/USD +0.25%, DXY -0.23%, EUR/JPY +0.32%, GBP/JPY +0.08%, AUD/JPY +0.37%.(Burton Frierson)

• GBP$ near flat in NY afternoon, -0.02% at 1.3415; Fri range 1.3476-1.3410

• Early test of daily cloud top resistance by 1.3466 unraveled into NorAm cls

• Pair rallied on further Trump Fed bashing, calling for drastically lower rates

• BoE rate path in focus, Aug cut priced at 80%, no cut seen in Sept.

• UK fiscal uncertainties remain despite rise from 3-day lows sub-1.34

• GBP$ supt 1.3400 big-figure support, 1.336 Jul 6 low, 1.3291 the 55-DMA

• Res1.3466 the bruised daily cloud top, 1.3476 Fri high, 1.3556 30-DMA

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Bank of America notes a hawkish shift in recent FOMC commentary, with even moderate voices highlighting tariff-related inflation risks and supporting a prolonged hold. The tone suggests that a September rate cut is now less likely unless incoming labor data decisively weakens.

Key Points:

• Tariff-Driven Inflation Concerns Rising:

  • NY Fed President Williams warned tariffs could add up to 1pp to inflation in late 2025 and early 2026—well above BofA’s forecast.

  • Governors Kugler and Bostic echoed concerns over pipeline inflation from tariffs, supporting a hold on policy for "some time."

• Dovish Exceptions Are Less Convincing:

  • SF Fed President Daly remained dovish, but even she hinted at rate cuts being backloaded into Q4, not imminent.

• Implications for September:

  • BofA believes the probability of a September rate cut has diminished.

  • Labor market data will now be the key determinant for timing any cuts.

Conclusion:

The balance of Fedspeak this week has tilted hawkish, with inflation risks from tariffs pushing the Fed toward caution. BofA sees the September meeting as increasingly unlikely to deliver a rate cut unless labor data deteriorates sharply. Patience remains the prevailing stance.

• JPY flat, range bound conditions persist ahead of JP election

• Election angst explains yen's inability to benefit from initial USD drop

• Betting exchanges (Polymarket) attach 64% prob that JP PM is out this year

• Japan's ruling coalition seen losing upper house majority

• Confirmation would weigh on yen further, opening up 150 for USD/JPY

• Should ruling coalition maintain control, USD/JPY could return to 145

• Resistance: 149.00/19 (weekly highs), 149.71 (200DMA), 150
USDJPY daily chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

HSBC's multiverse modeling sees USD/JPY fairly valued within a 146–152 range, but warns that a number of political, macroeconomic, and policy shifts could trigger a JPY rebound. Key among these are a US-Japan trade deal, renewed Fed easing, or direct Japanese FX intervention.

Key Points:

• Model-Implied Range for USD/JPY:

  • HSBC's multiverse model shows a current fair-value band of 146–152, based on data as of July 8.

  • The modeled range has moved sideways in recent months, reflecting broad uncertainty.

• Reversal Catalysts for JPY Strength:

  • A US-Japan trade deal with lower-than-expected tariffs could ease fiscal concerns and revive BoJ rate hike expectations.

  • Undervaluation of the yen: JPY REER is ~10–35% below historical averages depending on timeframe, pointing to upside potential.

  • BoJ lifers are under-hedged, increasing potential for JPY appreciation if sentiment turns.

• Other Downside Risks for USD/JPY:

  • Fed rate cuts (HSBC still expects one in September).

  • A global risk-off event or a sharp US slowdown.

  • Renewed doubt about Fed independence, particularly amid US political noise.

• MoF FX Intervention:

  • HSBC notes a possible “line in the sand” at 155–160, with past intervention and hawkish BoJ signals capping USD/JPY.

  • This intervention threshold may have shifted lower due to U.S. scrutiny over currency manipulation.

Conclusion:

While HSBC sees USD/JPY as fairly valued between 146–152, the pair is vulnerable to a reversal from several angles—especially trade diplomacy, Fed policy, and potential MoF intervention. Further upside is possible but not without growing policy and valuation constraints.

EUR/USD's uptrend survived a scare and the currency pair is poised for a potential rally, as recent developments suggest dollar bulls may be losing momentum.

On Thursday, EUR/USD broke below its uptrend line originating from the February 3 low but managed to close above it, indicating a possible false breakout. This resilience allowed EUR/USD to rally away from the trend line on Friday.

U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials have provided a lifeline for euro bulls. A second look at June retail sales data revealed that inflation-adjusted sales showed only modest increases, leading to a softening in U.S. yields. Notably, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks have further weighed on U.S. yields and helped tighten spreads, with Daly suggesting the possibility of two rate cuts before the end of 2025, and Waller advocating for a July rate cut.

As the U.S.-German 2-year yield spread tightens, along with the terminal rate spreads for the Fed and European Central Bank, the dollar's yield advantage over the euro diminishes. This shift in dynamics supports EUR/USD's ability to maintain its uptrend, which began in February. Should yield and rate spreads continue to converge, the pair may be positioned to test and potentially break the 3-3/4-year high established on July 1.
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(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole outlines bearish JPY scenarios into Japan’s Upper House election this weekend. A poor showing by the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition could weaken PM Ishiba’s influence, trigger leadership changes, and prompt a fiscal pivot back to Abenomics—all seen as JPY-negative.

Key Points:

• Ishiba at Risk: A poor LDP-Komeito result could force PM Ishiba to step down or remove Secretary-General Moriyama, a fiscal hawk.

• Fiscal Pivot Likely: Credit Agricole expects any political setback to push Japan toward more expansionary fiscal policy, weighing on JPY.

• Market Precedent: After the Oct 2025 Lower House loss, USD/JPY rose 0.6% on the following Monday, pricing in a policy pivot.

• Election Math: LDP-Komeito needs 50 seats to retain its Upper House majority, but economists estimate they may only win 46.

• Investor Reaction: A confirmed loss could trigger political uncertainty, credit concerns, and further JPY depreciation.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole sees political fallout from a weak LDP-Komeito election performance as a catalyst for renewed JPY weakness. Markets may price in a return to looser fiscal policy and leadership instability, accelerating downside risk for the yen.

July 18 (Reuters) - Following this week’s inflation and jobs data, the view that the Bank of England will deliver back-to-back rate cuts has been pushed back, with markets scaling back expectations for a September cut. However, while this would naturally support a currency, this is unlikely to be the case for the pound. Broadly speaking, the data reflect a growing stagflation risk. The labour market is cooling, albeit to a less extent than initially feared, and inflation remains sticky at elevated levels. Consequently, this is not an environment that will likely increase appetite for the pound. Among the key expressions of this view is EUR/GBP upside although the cross has struggled of late to take out resistance at 0.8700 and the preferred bias is likely to fade dips. Another downside risk to the pound comes from the moves in gilt yields. The 30-year yield is roughly 10-15 bps away from the April and May highs. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year yield is nearing the danger zone of 4.80-4.92%. Higher levels will likely lead to a negative feedback loop for the pound where higher yields increase fiscal concerns, further exacerbating the move higher in yields. This is what we saw at the start of the year, leading to something of a bond vigilante trade where both GBP and gilts fell.
BoE probability

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• U.S.-listed shares of copper miners up, tracking a rise in prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange

up 0.7% to $9,735 per metric ton

• Prices rise to a more than one-week high, driven by Chinese buyers, hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal and higher risk appetite among other investors

• Global mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Group

up 1.2% and ~1%, respectively

• Copper miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan rise 1.4% and 1%, respectively

• Canadian miners Hudbay Minerals , up 1.1% and Ero Copper , gains 1.2%

(Reporting by Katha Kalia in Bengaluru)

• EUR/USD options are betting on a 1.1500-1.2000 range with binary options

• Traders are placing no-touch barriers either side of these parameters

• Range binaries are a short volatility trade and only risk their premium

• If neither barrier has been touched by expiry holders receive fixed payout

• Example - 3-month expiry 1.1400-1.2100 double no touch (DNT) premium 15.0%

• Holder pays 15% of total payout they want to receive if barriers untouched

• Premiums increase as time elapses and if volatility subdued within range

• Longer expiries and closer barriers reduces premium and vice versa

• Huge EUR/USD barriers and triggers already reside at 1.2000

• Related - EUR/USD directional clues from the FX options market (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1556 EBS on Thursday

• The target for a minor correction of May-Jul rise is 1.1538

• EUR/USD which was overbought on daily chart was almost oversold on Thursday

• Pair rises to 1.1634 on Friday

• A rally has followed immediately after a minor correction

• Targets for a bigger rise: 1.1840, 1.1927 and 1.2015

• The Ichimoku cloud is an important guide for FX traders

• *



EURUSD


EURUSD targets

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• It is often productive to counter trade a 200-DMA

• The level is subject to the law of diminishing returns

• Initial tests of a 200-DMA often fail

• USD/JPY is approaching the 200-DMA which is 149.71

• The 150 mark is an important psychological level

• There is a high probability of big supply from corps and option traders

•
USD/JPY

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 31 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3410-1.3441

• There are large 1.3400-10 option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut

• 1.3441 is also high water-mark since Thursday's low of 1.3375

• Ascent to 1.3441 spurred by Fed's Waller saying July 30 rate cut justified

• Fed rate hold expected on July 30. BoE rate cut expected on August 7

• BoE scrutinizes lenders for dollar risk amid Trump worries, sources say

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/3-pm London Friday July 18

• EUR/USD: 1.1560-70 (4BLN), 1.1600 (3.3BLN), 1.1650 (2.4BLN)

• GBP/USD: 1.3400-10 (1.7BLN), 1.3425 (200M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8640-50 (307M)

• USD/CHF: 0.7900 (451M), 0.7975 (426M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6455-60 (1BLN), 0.6480 (950M), 0.6500 (380M), 0.6525 (452M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5930-45 (494M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3725-30 (1.1BLN), 1.3750 (430M), 1.3800-05 (341M)

• USD/JPY: 148.00 (674M), 148.25 (923M), 148.50 (818M), 148.75 (247M)

• 149.00 (325M)

• FX options wrap - Signals build around USD/FX moves (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.3% Fri as it continues to rally following Thur's sharp sell-off

• A solid 0.8% reversal from the 0.64545 low attributable to short covering

• Pair continues to push upper hourly Bollinger band, momentum likely to fade

• RBA Aug rate cut now assumed following a shock unemployment spike in Jun

• U.S. Jun housing starts (poll 1.3m), Michigan consumer sentiment due Fri

• RBA Jul monetary policy meeting minutes due for release 0130 GMT Tue

• Range Asia 0.64865-0.65105, support 0.6373, resistance 0.6595 0.66875
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study


AUD Daily 200-DMA & Support Level

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY, JPY crosses do little in Asia, caution ahead of Japan elections?

• Tokyo also eyeing a long weekend, flows light and insignificant ahead

• USD/JPY 148.30-62 EBS, another inside day after 146.92-149.19 Wednesday

• Larger parameters defined by 145.77 100-DMA below, 149.71 200-DMA above?

• Defense of presumed Japan importer option barriers at 150.00 also eyed

• Tech support from 148.17 ascending 100-HMA, Ichimoku cloud 148.02-05

• Large option expiries today at 148.00, 148.25, 148.50, 148.00-10 Monday

• JGB-US Tsy rate differentials tad wider today but still in narrowing trend

• FinMin Kato verbal intervention overnight suggest concern over weak JPY

• EUR/JPY 172.28-75 EBS, below 173.22 high Wed, best since 173.41 July 12 '26

• CHF/JPY a leg down from 186.01/05 double top July 15-16, Asia 184.53-185.08

• Large CHF449 mln 187.00, CHF450 mln 189.50 option expiries above Monday

• GBP/JPY at recent highs, 199.09-60, 199.82 high July 9, 200 resistance

• AUD/JPY also a leg down from 97.43 July 15, buoyant though, 96.29-70

• Holding near large, A$893 mln option expiries at 96.50 Monday

• NZD/JPY 88.00-55 and perking up, below 88.84/90 double top July 15-16

• CAD/JPY 107.89-108.20 and on hold below 108.72 July 16 high, best since Jan

• MXN/JPY 7.8998-7.9240, on hold below 7.9425 high July 15, best since Aug '24

• ZAR/JPY 8.2987-8.3451 and best since 8.3630/42 double top Feb 12/13

• Summer JPY-funded carry demand continuing, concerns over Japan elections too

• Related comments , , , also

• And , on Japan elections , Japan CPI
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB opens little changed, further range trades likely

• Pair traded 32.47-32.58 range in NY, closed at 32.49

• Supports at 32.40, 32.30; resistance at 32.60, 32.80 intraday

• Bullish USD outlook and Thai growth/tariff uncertainty underpin

• DXY last at 98.44, eyes clean break above 99.0, targets 100.0 mark

• Strong US economic data boost USD outlook, stocks extend rise

• Eyes on SET and gold prices, which had curb THB losses

• Thai stock markets rallied on expectation new BOT governor will cut rates
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• +0.01% after closing unchanged, resilient with the U.S. dollar up 0.35%

• UK, Germany hail wide-ranging treaty, deepening ties in the face of threats

• Bank of England scrutinizes lenders for US dollar risk amid Trump worries

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages head lower, momentum studies ease

• 21-day Bollinger bands expand - daily chart retains a negative bias

• Resistance levels: this week's 1.3503 high, then the 1.3620 July 9th top

• 1.3373 June base and 1.3345 lower 21-day Bolli band likely resilient support

• A close above this week's 1.3503 high would end the downside bias
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• +0.15% after closing off 0.35% with the U.S. dollar up 0.35%

• UK and Germany hail their wide-ranging treaty, deepening ties post-Brexit

• Slovakia to allow approval of new EU sanctions on Russia on Friday

• Charts - daily momentum studies fall, 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• 5, 10 & 21-DMAs conflict, closed below the 21-DMA for a third day, bearish

• Resistance starts at this week's 1.1725 high, then July 7th 1.1789 top

• 1.1537, 0.382% of the May/July rise, then 1.1531 lower 21-day Bolli support

• 1.1600 3.350 BLN and 1.1650 2.441 BLN close July 18 strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.5% from Thur 0.64545 low despite USD buoyancy on upbeat Jun data

• U.S. retail sales +0.6% m/m (poll +0.1%), import prices +0.1% (poll +0.3%)

• DXY +0.3% from Thur lows, still struggling to break 98.85 55-DMA cleanly

• AU employment solidifies RBA Aug rate cut, but it was already pencilled in

• RBA Jul monetary policy meeting minutes due for release 0130 GMT Tue

• Overnight range 0.64545-919, support 0.6398 0.6373, resistance 0.6595
AUD Daily 200-DMA & Daily DXY

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley argues that rising US foreign direct investment (FDI) is not inherently USD-bullish. They highlight that FDI is a relatively small contributor to FX flows and that a weaker dollar could, in fact, encourage further FDI.

Key Points:

• FDI flows are relatively modest, typically contributing between -1% and +1% of GDP to the US financial account.

• Portfolio flows, not FDI, dominate USD-impacting capital movement.

• A weaker USD can boost FDI by making US assets more competitive and attractive to foreign investors.

• Many FDI deals don’t involve immediate FX conversions, limiting their effect on the USD spot rate.

Conclusion:

Contrary to popular belief, stronger FDI inflows do not necessarily imply a stronger dollar. Morgan Stanley maintains that USD weakness and rising FDI are not mutually exclusive—and may in fact reinforce one another.

The dollar rose on Thursday with the help of firming Treasury yields in the wake of unexpectedly strong U.S. data.

The rally was relatively contained, however, with the U.S. currency retreating from its highs.

Initial jobless claims came in below forecast, as did continued claims -- which only posted a rise due to a downward revision to the previous week.

Retail sales exceeded forecasts on a headline and control basis. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly reiterated that it is "reasonable" to expect two interest rate cuts before the end of this year, particularly with the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs looking more muted than originally expected. In contrast Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said the U.S. Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates "for some time" as the impact of Trump administration tariffs begins passing through to consumer prices, with tight monetary policy needed to keep inflationary psychology in check. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, seen as a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said there needs to be a new accord between the Treasury Department and U.S. central bank, referencing a 1951 pact that separated federal debt management from monetary policy.

The Bank of England has asked some lenders to test their resilience to potential U.S. dollar shocks, three sources said, the latest sign of how the Trump administration's policies are eroding trust in the U.S. as a bedrock of financial stability. EUR/USD was mired in bearish technical signals and USD/JPY rose as the dollar maintained the upper hand, though failed to take out resistance. Sterling clawed back from the lows and kept support intact, while a double-top pattern highlighted bearish AUD/USD technicals.

U.S. Treasury yields were mostly firmer by as much as 3.8bps, with the front end leading the way. The 2s-10s curve flattened by 1.64bps. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% by late New York trade as strong economic data and positive earnings reports cheered investors. The Nasdaq Composite rose to a record high.

WTI crude rose 1.67% after drones struck Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for a fourth day, pointing to continued risk in the volatile region.

Copper fell 0.39% and gold slid 0.25%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.45%, USD/JPY +0.56%, GBP/USD -0.05%, AUD/USD -0.65%, =USD +0.41%, EUR/JPY +0.14%, GBP/JPY +0.46%, AUD/JPY -0.06%.(Burton Frierson)

• USD/JPY (+0.5%) firms, dollar maintains upper hand

• Bulls lacked ability to take out 149 after U.S. data

• Pullback in U.S. yields, 10s reject 4.5% provides yen reprieve

• Though dips remain shallow ahead of JP election, CPI

• Thurs range = 148.00-149.09

• Ongoing low vol environment keeps yen weaker on the crosses

• Fed September cut: A long shot getting longer
USDJPY hourly chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole has revised its GBP forecasts lower, citing growing downside risks to the UK economy that could prompt a more aggressive easing cycle from the Bank of England. Despite this, they still expect GBP to recover moderately versus the USD and outperform the EUR in 2026.

Key Points:

• Recent UK data and developments have increased downside risks to growth.

• BoE may respond with more aggressive rate cuts than previously expected.

• GBP/USD forecast for Q4 2025 cut to 1.37 (from 1.40).

• EUR/GBP forecast for Q4 2025 revised up to 0.85 (from 0.83).

• GBP still expected to outperform the EUR in 2026 despite near-term pressure.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole sees near-term GBP weakness as likely due to economic headwinds and more dovish BoE expectations. However, they maintain a constructive longer-term view, especially against the EUR.