Goldman Sachs shares its forecasts for the upcoming US jobs report for December, offering a detailed analysis of expected payroll increases, unemployment rates, and average hourly earnings.
Payroll Increase Forecast:
- Goldman Sachs predicts a 190k increase in payrolls, which is above the consensus estimate of 170k.
- This expectation is influenced by mild winter weather and favorable December seasonal factors, estimated to contribute roughly +50k to the payroll figures.
Unemployment Rate Projection:
- The unemployment rate is forecasted to be 3.7%, lower than the consensus prediction.
- This projection is supported by a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating fewer end-of-year layoffs.
Retail Payroll Decline:
- A significant reduction in retail payrolls is anticipated, reflecting weaker brick-and-mortar holiday spending.
Average Hourly Earnings Increase:
- An increase of 0.30% in average hourly earnings is expected, which could lower the year-on-year rate to 3.9%.
- This reflects diminishing wage pressures but also includes positive calendar effects contributing 5-10 basis points.
- The broader GS Wage Tracker indicates a 4.4% increase in wages over the past year.
Goldman Sachs provides an optimistic outlook for the December US jobs report, with expectations of a solid payroll increase and a lower-than-anticipated unemployment rate. Despite a projected decline in retail payrolls and moderated wage growth, the overall employment landscape appears resilient. The report's findings will be crucial for understanding the current state of the US labor market and its implications for broader economic conditions.