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Apr 18 - 04:55 PM

USD/JPY - Fresh 20-Year Highs, With 128.53 The Next Near-Term Target

By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 18 - 02:45 PM

  • One-way traffic up to 20-yr highs, USD/JPY by 127 on Fed-BOJ divergence

  • US data keeps pointing to inflation Fed needs to fight with hikes, QT

  • BOJ worried about abrupt yen dive, but still far from its CPI target

  • MOF unhappy with yen slide, imported inflation, but no intervention yet

  • Next target is 161.18% Fibo off Mar. 31 swing low, at 128.53

  • Might coincide with Tsy yields nearing key 2018 peaks nL2N2WG0TQ

  • Sans MOF or BOJ yen support, Tsy yields remain the main driver

  • Nat gas and oil also in the mix amid Ukraine war, bad for Japan importers

  • USD/JPY uptrend, O/B and spec-heavy as it may be, is intact above 10-DMA

  • Little in the way of historical resistance until the 133.00s

  • Daily on-close pivot point is Friday's 125.90 low on EBS

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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