• AUD/NZD has soared from 1.06 to 1.22 over the past year, one of the standout G10 movers

• Bulk of the move rate-driven, with AU-NZ yield spreads firmly in AUD's favour

• Iran war-driven oil spike added a secondary tailwind for the cross

• But with the RBA flagging a pause, the upside from rates looks increasingly priced

• Thus the rate differential trajectory from here will be the key swing factor

• U.S.-Iran deal chatter also building, if confirmed, this would be a net NZD positive

• Positioning is the big headwind - the market is long and crowded

• As such, there is a plenty of fuel for a sharp unwind

• Technically, 1.22 is proving a tough hurdle. 1.2050 (55DMA) is first meaningful support
AUDNZD vs DMAs


FX positioning by investor types


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))