By eFXdata — Mar 15 - 08:30 AM
Societe Generale Research summarizes its expectations for this week's FOMC, BoE, and BoJ policy meetings.
"The bond market still dominates and this week's FOMC, BOE and BOJ meetings loom larger than economic data do (though we'll watch tomorrow's US retail sales). The FOMC will talk dovishly, nudge the IOER up to keep Fed Funds on their 0-0.25% band, but probably won't do anything to directly help the long end. So, no cavalry to the rescue for bonds. The BOE will do nothing at all and the BOJ will, at most, tweak a bit. If markets can get through Wednesday without bonds taking another bath, the dollars bounce may start to run out of steam," SocGen notes.
"That's too many ‘ifs' for comfort but we're inclined to stick with a preference for oil and growth-sensitive currencies not the ongoing appeal of CAD, NOK, AUD and NZD... EUR/USD is currently in a 1.1840-1.20 range, and a break to the downside remains a big risk," SocGen adds.
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary