US Retail Sales Could Lift, but Industrial Production Faces Challenges
ING predicts a potential rise in US retail sales, buoyed by robust auto sales numbers for April. However, industrial production may be held back due to falling production indicated by manufacturing surveys, and lower energy prices restricting the upside for oil and gas extraction. Of all the data releases this week, jobless claims might significantly impact rate expectations, though Fed speeches are also expected to be influential.
Dollar's Sustainability Tied to Debt-Ceiling Impasse and Safe-Haven Flows
According to ING, pushback against rate cut expectations could offer some support to the dollar, but this might not be a sustainable driver. The dollar is currently kept afloat by the ongoing debt-ceiling impasse in Washington. ING believes that unless there's significant progress in negotiations, investors' fears might continue to escalate, tilting the balance of risks towards the upside for the dollar. Consequently, this could drive safe-haven flows, potentially extending the rebound in DXY to the 103.50/104.00 area in the coming days.