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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
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USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Nov 20 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Helped South By Concerns About U.S.-China Relations
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 06:20 AM
  • AUD/USD elicited support just shy of 0.6800 after breaking below 0.6810

  • 0.6810 was Asian session low. More bids are tipped at 0.6785 (Tuesday's low)

  • Drop to threaten 0.6800 influenced by concerns about China-U.S. relations

  • U.S. Senate passes Hong Kong rights bill backing protestors, angers Beijing

  • See: nL2N27Z1VC. 0.6835 was Tuesday's high, after shorts got squeezed

  • Without a China trade deal, the U.S. will hike tariffs - Trump nL2N27Z0YP

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 07:24 AM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY Should Dip This Year But Rebound Next Year
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 05:05 AM

Position adjustment is likely to weigh on USD/JPY this year before growing risk appetite weakens the yen in the year to come nL2N28005I.
Traders recently placed a large bet on USD/JPY rising and the chance that some of it will be reduced before this year ends is high.
The entire $4 billion bet has been established in five weeks.
The likely short-term nature of the betting heightens the chance some of it's pared before the year ends.
USD/JPY has been trading above 108.00 while these bets were being established, so they have little insulation should USD/JPY drop.
That said, it's clear that risk taking in broader financial markets is running hot, with stocks rallying and major markets reaching record highs.
That will undoubtedly rub off on currency traders.
FX volatility is low, which will support carry trades nL2N28005Z.
Next year, the yen is likely to be sold to fund those trades.
A thick and rising daily Ichimoku cloud 107.71-106.68 should underpin USD/JPY.







USDJPY and betting Click here

USDJPY and Ichimoku cloud Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - Massive USD/JPY Option Hedging Can Dictate Price Action
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 03:50 AM
  • DTCC charts show a massive USD 5-billion USD/JPY expiries in 108.20-50 zone

  • The bulk of these mature at 10-am New York cut on Thursday

  • Those with exposure to the strikes typically "delta hedge" via cash market

  • Hedging activity often draws/keeps cash close to the strikes as expiry looms

  • USD/JPY options reflect downside fears in spot nL2N27Z05V


USDJPY option expiries: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 05:00 AM
GBP/USD - Bull Run Fades As Break Outs Set To Fail
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 02:50 AM
  • Looks like a false break as bears push price back inside a daily channel

  • Channel top 1.2945 and intact with no close above despite Mon-Tues breaks

  • The key weekly cloud break also failing: long upper candle wick showing

  • Daily positive momentum fading and RSI pointing down

  • Support provided by converged 10 and 21DMAs at 1.2880

  • Downside risk: we stand aside for now









GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

GBP/USD Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Downside Cushioned By Cascading UST Yields
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 12:50 AM
  • EUR/USD barely flinches despite broad Asia stocks selloff on trade woes

  • Cascading UST yields keep dollar bulls at heel; 10y slips to 1.750%

  • Persistent threat of US-China trade deal falling through nL2N280023

  • But EUR/USD bears deterred by Ichimoku Cloud support at 1.1064

  • Need to pierce Cloud base 1.1003, which would trigger another bearish cue

  • Triggering Bollinger downtrend channel would increase bearish momentum









EUR: Click here

UST10y: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 01:24 AM
USD: FOMC Minutes On Wed May Appear Stale From Balance Of Risks Assessment - Barclays
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 02:15 PM

Barclays Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow's FOMC minutes.

"We expect the minutes to show that members favored one further cut in the policy rate in October and agreed to send a message that the Fed was through with providing insurance for now given the lag between changes in the policy rate and economic outcomes. That said, the FOMC statement contains an easing bias owing to residual uncertainties plaguing the global outlook and we expect many members to hold the view that the Fed should be prepared to ease further (eg, act as appropriate) to sustain the outlook," Barclays notes. 

"The minutes may appear somewhat stale in any assessment of the balance of risks given the October employment data and reported progress on US-China trade discussions came after the committee met. We also expect to read extensive discussion on the steps taken to quell unrest in short-term funding markets and progress toward a standing repo facility," Barclays adds. 

Source:
Barclays Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Unmoved By Risk-Off Mood In Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:15 PM
  • EUR/USD barley traded inside a 1.1070/79 range through the Asian morning

  • Asian equities moved lower on heightened concerns over US-China trade talks

  • US senate passed HK Rights bill and China responded negatively nL2N27Z1VC

  • EUR/USD resistance @ 100-day MA @ 1.1090 % 61.8 of 1.1180/1.0989 @ 1.1107

  • Support at 1.1042 where the 10 & 55-day MAs converge






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 11:00 PM
EUR/USD - 1.1100 Vulnerable, But Little To Suggest A Trend
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 08:10 PM
  • Another low key day in Asia, with tight range trading the likely outcome

  • 1.1000-05 1.1BLN, 1.1045-55 500M and 1.1115 611M close strikes look safe

  • Daily topside cloud break was sustained yesterday - a positive signal

  • Targets a break of Monday's 1.1090 high, then 1.1107, 61.8% Nov dip

  • Horizontal Tenkan & Kijun lines do not suggest a trending move

  • 1.1064 cloud top is now initial support, 1.1084 Kijun line resistance

eur nov 20 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - Rally Sputters But Longs Not All Washed Out Yet
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 08:00 PM
  • GBP/USD rally squashed after mixed post-debate poll nL8N27Z6HR

  • But further upside can't be ruled out yet, if 1.2920 support holds

  • Base of Bollinger uptrend channel key to keeping bulls in the game

  • Failure to defend 1.2920 exposes possible correction to 1.2834

  • PM Johnson still favored to win Dec election, should boost GBP

  • But no-deal Brexit still a possibility as time runs short








Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 08:36 PM
USD/JPY - Trades Soft, Looking For A Decisive Risk Move
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 06:25 PM
  • -0.1% after closing off 0.1%, led by a fall in long end UST yields

  • Trades lead data - polls exports -7.6%, imports -16%, balance 301.0B

  • Little lead from Wall Street, data unlikely to impact - range trading

  • Horizontal Tenkan and Kijun lines do not suggest a trending move

  • Rising daily cloud for the next few week may provide underlying support

  • Major resistance at 109.35/50, 61.8% 2019 fall and the November high

  • 108.00 410M, 108.15-30 700M, 108.50-60 700M and 108.75 250M close strikes

jpy nov 20 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 05:00 PM
GBP/USD: Scope For A Setback Ahead Of Elections Reduced But Not Eliminated - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 01:00 PM

MUFG Research discusses GBP/USD outlook ahead of the UK Dec-12 General Elections. MUFG is short GBP/USD* targeting a move towards 1.2600.

"The likelihood of the GBP suffering a setback in the run up to the election has now been reduced although certainly not eliminated. It will still be difficult for cable to break above 1.3000 until there is more clarity. Public opinion polls would need to shift decisively to trigger a more volatile GBP. It has not happened yet broadly, although we note Britain Elects Poll Tracker shows the gap closing," MUFG adds. 

"Downside risks for GBP would increase if the gap starts to narrow across a wider number of polls, which would increase political uncertainty. It would open up GBP more to weakness coming through from the UK economy. Key support for cable is located at 1.2800, and then at 1.2700, the 200-day moving average," MUFG adds. 

--

*Recorded in eFXplus Orders

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Greenback Sales Trump RBA's Effect
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 01:35 PM
  • Despite upbeat US housing data US$ selling is the theme in NY

  • AUD/USD rallies in NY and adds to gains from Europe's morning nL2N27Z0G0

  • Rally stalls just short of 10-DMA and Nov. 14 high, little pull back seen

  • Cloud top supports, daily bull hammer forms, RSI rises, techs favor longs

  • Effect of RBA minutes short-lived, shorts concerns grow nL2N27Z0QT

  • Break above 0.6840/65 is likely to drive test of 200-DMA & October high








chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Heavy On Trump's Tough Trade Tone, Testing Yield Support
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 12:50 PM
  • Trump says China has to make a trade deal, tariffs up if not nW1N26M02Q

  • Comes after Bloomberg story deal depends on cuts in tariffs since May

  • USD/JPY below Monday's 108.51 low following falling Treasury yields

  • 10-yr Tsy yields probing 100-DMA & up TL off Oct-Nov lows by 1.78%

  • A break and close below would signal bigger risk-off fall in USD/JPY

  • Pair's already top-heavy, uptrend from Aug at risk below 107.99/89 props

  • Bulls need a trade deal and 109.49+ close to take control again

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 01:24 PM
USD: Risk Of A USD Spike Into Year-End On A Sharp Rise In Net USD Demand - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 11:20 AM

Citi flags a risk of a sharp rise in net USD demand over coming weeks, which may result in rising USD liquidity premiums and a subsequent spike in USD against its counterparts.

"Investor focus shifts to the prospect for a potential broad based tightening in the year-end USD liquidity premium following the NY Fed’s update on its money market operations schedule. More recently after September end, USD liquidity premiums have been shrinking on expectations that the Fed will likely be able to adequately supply USD funding to year-end," Citi notes. 

"However, major bank money market desks in NY are anticipating a sharp rise in net USD demand over coming weeks to year-end and the investor focus is turning on whether the NY Fed’s schedule may be enough to cater for the anticipated demand. Should the Fed fall short, this may result in rising USD liquidity premiums thereby leading to a spike in USD in the FX space," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Bulls Struggle Against Options Market
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:30 AM

GBP/USD bulls have plenty going in their favor -- including a rare bout of certainty over UK politics and -- but they can't count on help from the options market at the moment. Cable has drifted down 0.1% to 1.2940, away from its Oct. 21 trend high of 1.3012 as some of the bullish momentum of a Tory victory -- and Brexit clarity that goes with it -- in the upcoming election ebbs.
While sterling hovers near the top of its recent range, option interest indicates further gains, at least in the near-term, will likely be capped nL2N27Z0I3.
One-month volatility, which includes the Dec. 12 election, has been leveling off near 11.5% GBP1MO=.
Additionally, large GBP/USD option expiries for Thursday and Friday by 1.2900 and 1.3000, Click here , are likely to anchor spot near current levels. Still, with the Tory poll advantage trickling higher, attention is on the upside and GBP support appears firm at the rising 30-DMA by 1.2877 and the 200-DMA by 1.2703.
A close above the weekly cloud, which spans 1.2941-1.2886, would add to bullish sentiment and put 100 and 200-DMA resistance at 1.3063 and 1.3117 in sharper focus.
A rise above 1.3168, the 50% Fib of April 2018 to September 2019 dip will give bulls the advantage, opening the way for a run to March 2019 highs by 1.3380.


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 09:48 AM
GBP/USD: Debate On Tap; 1.3185 Likely To Cap Ahead Of Dec-12 Elections - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 08:28 AM

TD Research discusses GBP tactical outlook ahead of the Dec-12 UK General Elections.

"Across the Channel, the focus remains very much on UK domestic politics as PM Johnson is set to debate the opposition leader on Tuesday. Press reports indicate Labour will release its campaign "manifesto" Thursday with the Conservatives doing the same the following day," TD adds 

"Ahead of this, some polls point to a widening lead by the Conservatives. We think GBP/USD breaking higher looks likely. An initial target for a move higher would be 1.3120, but we continue to think that 1.3185 should cap rallies ahead of the UK general election," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Tests Monday High After Rising From RBA-Spurred Low
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 06:00 AM
  • AUD/USD tests 0.6823 (Monday's high) after extending north from 0.6785

  • 0.6785 was the Asian session low after dovish RBA minutes nL3N27Z0UC

  • Risk-sensitive AUD is benefitting from hope of a US-China trade deal

  • Hang Seng's 1.6% rise positive for AUD too nAZN18JR00nL8N27Z1V9

  • 0.6841 (Nov 14 high, before drop to 0.6770) is an obstacle beyond 0.6823

  • AUD/USD notched its Nov 14 high before weak Australian employment data

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Shorts In Growing Danger Of Being Squeezed
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 05:55 AM

On Monday, EUR/USD rose to register a daily close above the Ichimoku cloud top, which remains at 1.1064, increasing the risk of a short squeeze in coming sessions.
In the week ended Nov.
12, IMM data showed the futures market was short by an equivalent EUR/USD cash position of 7.2 billion euros, down from 7.6 billion euros the previous week.
However, EBS flow data since Nov.
12 shows some of those shorts may have been re-established, increasing the chances of a near-term short squeeze because there are more buy stops around that might be triggered.
If EUR/USD bulls force a daily close above the kijun line, at 1.1085, that will further increase the likelihood for more gains to retest the October 1.1180 peak.
EUR/USD direction is at the mercy of the Federal Reserve FOMC's October minutes due out on Wednesday and Friday's release of flash euro zone PMIs nL1N27Y00C.
Related nL2N27Y00K


EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

IMM Positions Chart: Click here

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - Bulls Rebuild As U.S.-China Deal News Still Awaited
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 04:10 AM

Corrected IMM date

  • FX traders still await news about a U.S.-China "phase one" deal

  • USD/JPY has seen a 108.47-108.75 range, according to prices on the EBS

  • Bulls rebuild, need close above tenkan to tighten grip nL2N27Z060

  • Tenkan line at 108.86, a close above would unmask the Nov 109.49 peak

  • Larger NY cut expiries: 108.30-35 (1.1B), 108.50-55 (1B), 108.90-109.00 (1B)

  • EUR/JPY's correlation with USD/JPY high, 30/60-day logs are +0.73/+0.65

  • Kuroda denies saying BOJ has unlimited tools to ease policy nT9N27700P

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD's Close Above Cloud Top Increases The Odds Of A Squeeze
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 03:05 AM
  • Mon's close above cloud top, at 1.1064, increases odds of a squeeze higher

  • EUR/USD bulls now need to force a close above the kijun line at 1.1085

  • That would strengthen the scope for a test the October 1.1180 peak

  • Looking to get long on dips to 1.1065, ahead of tenkan line at 1.1040

  • "Bear trap" and the daily cloud top nL1N27Y04T

  • A simple way to position for a EUR/USD cloud breakout nL2N27V07H

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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