Bank of America Global Research previews the US October CPI report due on Tuesday.

For the October CPI report, we forecast both headline and core CPI to rise 0.2% m/m (headline 0.17% unrounded, core 0.22% unrounded, see Exhibit 2 for full details). Since the BLS was unable to publish a complete October 2025 report due to the shutdown, it is unlikely to publish y/y estimates. Using linear interpolation to fill the missing data, however, we estimate that both headline and core inflation would rise a tenth on a y/y basis. We look for the NSA headline index to print at 336.815," BofA notes.

"A 0.2% core PCE print should lock in a December hike. We think only an indisputably soft 0.1% could affect the calculus," BofA adds.