Nordea Research discusses the USD outlook and likes short EUR/USD and long USD/SEK.
"We expect July core inflation to reach levels of 4.8%, driven by local supply shortage from the motor vehicle industry, airline fares and accommodation. We have by the way been almost alone in calling for CLEAR upside to the actual core inflation prints since January, and we are firm that we haven’t seen the peak yet, even despite the rent of shelter tricks by the Biden administration. This means that tapering bets are still fully alive, and now they even risk being solidified or accelerated by the debt ceiling suspension in late-September or early-October," Nordea notes.
"We hence like i) being long USD (against SEK or EUR), ii) 5s30s curve-flatteners (as the 5yr point is kept elevated by the tapering prospects) and iii) 2y1y EURUSD xCcy basis receivers," Nordea adds.