Synopsis:

ANZ expects EUR/USD to continue trending higher into year-end, supported by resilient Eurozone fundamentals, haven demand, fading USD appeal, and a slowing ECB easing cycle. Despite geopolitical risks, the pair is forecast to reach 1.20 by December.

Key Points:

• EUR Haven Appeal:
  EUR/USD rallied from 1.08 to 1.16 in Q2, driven partly by safe-haven inflows amid global uncertainty, particularly Middle East tensions.

• Macro Backdrop Improving:
  Eurozone Q1 GDP rose 0.6% q/q, and May CPI dipped to 1.9%, meeting the ECB's target. PMI data suggest manufacturing contraction is easing.

• ECB Outlook:
  The June rate cut to 2% likely marked the end of the aggressive phase, with only one more cut expected in 2025.

• USD Weakness Expected:
  ANZ sees two Fed cuts by year-end, alongside softening US data and renewed tariff concerns, reducing USD appeal.

Conclusion:

Barring major geopolitical disruptions or a sharp oil surge, EUR/USD is set for further gains with ANZ maintaining a year-end target of 1.20, supported by improving Euro area data and growing haven demand for the euro.

• NY opened near 1.1600 after 1.1577 traded on EBS overnight, pair slid early on

• 1.1583 traded, buyers emerged however as overnight US yield, US$ slumps resumed

• Those drops intensified on Fed Chair Powell 's comment on rate cuts later this year

• USD/CNH fell below 7.1635, stocks rallied & gold
bounced after the comments

• EUR/USD hit 1.1641 which last traded October 2021, EUR/USD was up +0.46% late in the day

• Techs are bullish; RSIs rising, pair above 10- & 21-DMAs, rally followed May's bull hammer
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6510, dipped down to 0.6488 early, buyers emerged

• Pair then hit a 4-session high of 0.6519, traded up +0.75% in NY afternoon

• US yield slump helped drive broad based US$ selling

• USD/CNH drop, equity & copper gains reinforced US$ selling

• Drops in AUD/JPY and gold did not deter AUD/USD bulls

• AUD/USD techs lean bullish; RSIs rising & pair back above the 10- & 21-DMAs

• Australia May CPI & weighted CPI are data risks in Asia trading hours
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

TD Securities anticipates a near-term USD rally driven by a positioning squeeze as geopolitical risks escalate and market narratives shift. However, they view this as tactical, not structural, and recommend using the expected USD strength to re-initiate shorts at better levels.

Key Points:

• Narrative Shift Underway:
  The "sell America" theme may be giving way to a broader geopolitical risk narrative, centered on Middle East tensions and U.S. involvement.

• Positioning Dislocation:
  TD's geomacro index shows a disconnect between geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, signaling complacency in USD shorts.

• Terms of Trade Shock Playbook:
  Any major escalation in the Middle East (especially disruptions to Iran's energy exports) would pressure Asia and Europe, while boosting US assets, gold, and inflation expectations—supportive for the USD in the short term.

• Tactical USD Strength Ahead:
  A massive adjustment in USD positioning could trigger a short-term rally—what TD sees as a "purge" that allows better entry points for medium-term USD shorts.

Conclusion:

TD remains strategically USD bearish, but sees tactical upside in the Dollar as geopolitical shocks force positioning resets. Investors should watch for USD strength as a contrarian opportunity to sell, once the squeeze plays out.

June 24 (Reuters) - After Monday’s bullish key day reversal, GBP/USD has extended gains during Tuesday’s session, aided by the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and the passing of peak geopolitical uncertainty may allow market participants to revert back to the dollar short trade. The recent whippy price action means that positioning is likely less of a hurdle for a fresh leg lower in the greenback, which in turn should keep cable on the front foot.

In light of a couple of Fed officials leaving the door slight ajar for a July rate cut, upcoming U.S. data, namely payrolls and inflation, will be particularly interesting.

Elsewhere, Bank of England speakers offered little new insight, though while there is a risk of a more dovish BoE outlook, downside risks to GBP are likely better expressed against euro, as opposed to the dollar. That said, with the dust settling on the geopolitical front, GBP/USD can continue to drift higher. Resistance sits at 1.3650, which held on first attempt. A daily close above 1.3600 would likely embolden the bulls. Support resides at 1.3400.
gbpusd daily chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Bank of America highlights that recent EUR/USD strength has been fueled primarily by Real Money investors based in Europe, signaling a potential regime shift in USD positioning. Meanwhile, USD selling remains limited among US-based investors, suggesting more room for broad-based Dollar weakness.

Key Points:

• European-Driven USD Selling:
  EUR/USD demand in Q2 was dominated by European Real Money investors, pointing to persistent non-US buying pressure.

• Underweight USD Positioning in the US and Asia:
  Real Money and Hedge Funds in the Americas (AMRS) and Asia show limited USD selling, implying additional room for repositioning lower in USD, especially against EUR.

• Regional FX Themes:

  • CAD: Bought in AMRS

  • EM FX: Bought in Europe

  • JPY: Bought in Asia

  • GBP: Sold in both AMRS and Europe

  • SEK: Sold in both AMRS and Asia

Conclusion:

BofA sees the geographic skew in USD selling—especially heavy European participation and light AMRS engagement—as evidence of a partial regime shift in global FX flows. With significant USD exposure still held by US and Asian investors, further Dollar downside remains likely, particularly versus EUR.

• USD/CAD (-0.2%) largely taking its cue from the dollar leg

• Little fanfare over Canadian CPI as core measures match estimates

• Iran/Israel ceasefire paves way for dollar downside

• Risks lean in favour of a return to the mid-June lows at 1.3530-35

• RSI sub-50 also signals underlying trend is skewed to the downsde

• Resistance at 1.3810 (55DMA), further ahead at 1.3990-1.4000
USD/CAD daily chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole’s latest positioning model shows EUR remains the most crowded long in G10 FX, while NZD holds the largest short exposure, reflecting divergent investor sentiment and flow dynamics.

Key Points:

• EUR as Top Long:
  The Euro continues to see broad-based buying, with inflows from banks, corporates, and real money, even as hedge funds reduced exposure.

• NZD as Top Short:
  The New Zealand Dollar remains the largest short, led by IMM-driven hedge fund buying offset by outflows from banks, corporates, and real money.

• Tactical vs. Strategic Flows:
  EUR demand was mainly tactical, while NZD positioning reflects more structural bearish sentiment.

Conclusion:

EUR remains structurally supported by broad-based investor demand, while NZD continues to suffer from widespread outflows. The divergence highlights positioning asymmetry across G10 and could shape upcoming FX volatility.

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs argues the recent USD weakness reflects a structural "reset" in investor capital allocation rather than a terminal decline. Despite near-term upside risks from geopolitics and positioning, the longer-term path for the Dollar points lower.

Key Points:

• Structural Shift:
  The Dollar’s 8 percentage point underperformance vs. EUR/USD relative to cyclicals reflects a capital reallocation, not just macro data divergence.

• FX Hedging Impact:
  Shifting capital flows are also changing FX hedging ratios, reinforcing Dollar weakness as global investors adjust exposures.

• Short-Term Risks Favor USD:
  Geopolitical tensions and bearish USD positioning could temporarily support the Dollar as safe-haven demand resurfaces.

• Long-Term Dollar Risk:
  The main challenge to the bearish view is if US asset returns remain compelling enough to attract global capital despite relative value concerns.

Conclusion:

Goldman sees the USD in a reset phase, not collapse. Long-term weakness is driven by global capital rotation away from the US, but geopolitical shocks and safe-haven flows still pose short-term upside risks. The broader trend, however, remains USD-bearish.

• AUD/USD rallied 0.6456-0.6516 overnight, NY opened near 0.6510, up +0.74%

• Easing of geopolitical tensions helped drive a bid for riskier assets

• USD/CNH fell toward 7.1700, stocks and copper
rallied

• Gold fell sharply, reinforced investors are shunning safe-havens

• AUD/USD rallied above the 10- & 21-DMAs, traded to a four session high

• Techs are bullish; RSIs rising, a rally follows Monday's daily bull hammer candle

• US June consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index are data risks

• Fed's Powells' testimony to House Financial Services Committee begins 10:00 am EDT
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY tracks oil prices lower following Iran-Israel ceasefire announcement

• Note that lower oil prices typically benefits the yen (net importer of oil)

• Yen also underpinned by dovish remarks by Fed's Bowman (typically hawkish)

• Bowman joins Waller in opening the door to a July cut (probability = 22%)

• Support at 145 holds for now (200-hour MA)

• Monday's high at 148 likely marks the interim top for the pair
usdjpy hourly chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners fall premarket, tracking decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1.2% at $3326.38/ounce, as of 0857 GMT

• Gold prices slipped as risk appetite improved after a ceasefire came into effect to end a 12-day war between Iran and Israel, denting demand for safe-haven assets

• Top miners Newmont down ~2% and Barrick Mining

dips 1.4%

• South African miners Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti , Harmony Gold decline between 2.4% and 2.6%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines down 1.9% and Kinross Gold fall 1.8%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

• EUR/CHF continues to trade within its well-defined range (0.9300-0.9450)

• Though as tensions between Israel & Iran ease, EUR/CHF can drift higher

• Inability to sustain a drop on tensions will have encouraged EUR/CHF bulls

• However, while risks lean on the upside - a catalyst is lacking

• Therefore, in the short-run, EUR/CHF remains stuck in a range

• Resistance = 0.9430-50, break opens up 0.95. Support = 0.9300-10
EURCHF daily chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD up to 0.6513 as safe-haven USD falls on Iran-Israel ceasefire news

• 0.6513 is highest level since June 18 (0.6373 was Monday's six-week low)

• The 0.6500 level is now a support point (0.6495 was Friday's high)

• There is a big 0.6500 option expiry on Thursday; A$2 billion strike

• Australian May inflation data due at 0130 GMT; weighted CPI f/c 2.3% YY

• Trump says U.S. interest rates should be at least two to three points lower

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Donald Trump said Tuesday a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was in place

• Iran's last missiles fired before ceasefire, Iran's SNN reports

• EUR/USD rises to 1.1619 EBS just shy 2025 peak at 1.1632

• Dip to 1.1452 following U.S. attack alleviated overbought situation

• Pair looks set for a more significant gains toward 1.1800

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Olympio Metals Ltd jump 97.7% to A$0.085, their highest since March 18, 2024

• The critical minerals explorer observes visible gold in its first drilling program at the Bousquet gold project in Quebec

• Around 1.8 million shares change hands, compared with the 30-day average volume of around 93,880

• Session lifts YTD gains to 120.5%
(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru) ((Shruti.Agarwalmailto:))

• Shares of Emerald Resources fall 2.5% to A$4.495, their lowest since June 12

• The gold explorer anticipates its flagship Okvau gold mine will produce 21Koz for June quarter, below forecast of 25Koz–30Koz

• Co produced 28.2Koz of gold in the same quarter last year

• Stock on track for worst day since June 16, if trend persists

• Stock up 38.3% YTD, including moves in current session
(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• Up 0.35% with broad-based risk appetite on Israel/Iran ceasefire

• Iran's Araqchi says if Israel stops attacks on Iran, Tehran will not respond

• There is no scheduled Australian data or RBA events, risk appetite leads AUD

• Risk 'on' - E-mini S&P +0.55%, Brent oil -2.97%, Nikkei +1.15%, ASX 200 +1%

• Charts, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages coil with neutral momentum studies

• 21-day Bolli bands ease - dailies show neutral signals at familiar levels

• 0.6422 lower 21-day Bolli band, then yesterday's 0.6373 low, first support

• Friday's 0.6495 high, then 0.6552 June and 2025 top are the first resistance
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Israel-Iran ceasefire news, tepid Iran reprisal vs US bases sends USD down

• USD/JPY from 148.01 high to 146.00 yesterday, Asia 145.70-146.16 EBS so far

• On hold currently just above still sideways 145.15-55 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Cloud base up some but looking to move lower again to 144.34 by July 1

• USD/JPY also back below descending 100-DMA today at 146.71

• Hourly charts shows spot looking to fall below its 145.79-146.18 cloud

• Some support from area of 100-HMA at 145.71, 200-HMA 144.96 below

• Options not a factor? Today only significant expiries 145.00 $597 mln

• US Tsy 10s in bounce from overnight lows on dovish Fed-talk but still easy

• JGB 10s also easy and holding near recent lows, 2s in bounce from lows

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , Fed Bowman-speak , on futures

• US markets , , ,

• More on crude , on Israel-Iran

• On US economy , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


Brent futures:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• +0.2% early after closing up 0.6% with the U.S. dollar down 0.35%

• Cautious initial response to Trump announcing Israel-Iran ceasefire

• UK PMIs beat expectations, but the outlook remains uncertain

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages base, momentum studies conflict

• Horizontal 21-day Bolli bands - daily signals show no strong bias

• June 17, 1.3577 high, then the 1.3632 June 13 2025 high, initial resistance

• 1.3411 lower 21-day Bolli, then yesterday's 1.3373 base are initial support

• Well tested 1.3370/00 is a solid support level after a bullish outside day
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• +0.2% after closing up 0.45% with the USD -0.35%, as risk appetite recovered

• Muted response to Trump announcing an Israel-Iran ceasefire after the close

• WTI oil is off 4.3% to $65.57 on the Israel-Iran ceasefire news

• ECB's Lagarde urges EU lawmakers to speed up launching a digital euro law

• Charts - daily momentum studies rise, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages climb

• 21-day Bollinger bands expand - daily charts retain the topside bias

• 1.1457 21-day moving average, then the 1.1372 June 6 base, initial support

• The 1.1632 2025 high, then the 1.1692 Oct 2021 top are the next resistance

• A close below the close 1.1457 21-DMA would end the May/June topside bias

• 1.1550 1.369 BLN are the only significant close strikes for June 24th
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Up 0.25% as Trump announces an Israel-Iran ceasefire, after closing up 0.1%

• Modest FX impact so far in the twilight zone into the Asia open

• WTI oil is off 4.55%, trading at USD 65.35 in a knee-jerk response

• If true, we can expect a major risk recovery once Asia opens

• Charts, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages slip with neutral momentum studies

• 21-day Bollinger bands ease - overall, a modest negative setup

• Yesterday's -.6373 low then the 0.6344 late April base support

• Friday's 0.6495 high then 0.6552 June, and 2025 top are the first resistance
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley expects a slight improvement in Germany’s June IFO business climate survey and mixed trends in US consumer confidence, with sentiment recovering but labor market views weakening.

Key Points:

• US Consumer Confidence (June):
  Expected to reflect a rebound from April-May lows, consistent with June’s University of Michigan sentiment improvement.
  
  

• Germany IFO Business Climate (June):
  MS forecasts a modest rise to 87.8 from 87.5 in May, suggesting gradual improvement in sentiment despite weak underlying activity.

Conclusion:

The US confidence rebound remains fragile as consumers grow less optimistic about job prospects. In Germany, sentiment may be stabilizing, but the economy still faces structural headwinds. Neither release is expected to shift market direction materially on its own

• NY opened near 0.6380 after AUD/USD traded 0.6449 overnight, 0.6373 hit early

• Downward momentum faded however as US$ buying abated & US yields softened

• Comments on possible Fed cut in July by Fed's Bowman weighed on yields, US$

• US$ sold, yields hit session lows & stocks , copper rallied

• USD/CNH drop below 7.1780 helped AUD/USD rally above 0.6440 in NY's afternoon

• AUD/USD rallied back above the daily cloud top and the 55- & 200-DMAs

• Daily bull hammer candle formed, may be a concerns for AUD/USD bears
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)