AUD/USD weathered volatile price action after the RBA decision and on lingering U.S.-Sino trade deal concerns but the pair's inability to make headway below 0.7000 suggests bears could be in for hardship.
AUD/USD spiked up near 0.7050 after the RBA held rates steady and said they will be paying close attention to the labor market over the coming months.
Australian employment data has been solid and more Australians are entering the workforce nL3N2200K4.
Both factors could diminish expectations for cuts, which Australian short-term rates markets YBAM0 suggest will be a one-and-done scenario.
Rate cuts are largely priced in to AUD/USD so once they do occur their impact will be limited.
The heightened U.S.-China trade fears soured risk sentiment and drove AUD/USD toward pre-RBA levels, but news that China's Vice Premier Liu will attend talks later this week suggested additional tariffs could possibly be delayed.
Should tensions ease, AUD/USD shorts nL1N22F1GK are likely to get squeezed hard, allowing for a return to April's high.
However, short-term risks are to the downside, as techs highlight, with monthly RSI biased down and a long upper wick forming on the daily candle. If AUD/USD fails to gain traction below 0.7000 soon the upside risks will grow.
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