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Nov 12 - 04:55 PM

COMMENT - US Recap: EUR/USD Rebounds With Help From Sterling

By Randolph Donney  —  Nov 12 - 02:40 PM

The dollar slipped against the euro and yen but made up for it with a big gain versus sterling, which suffered in the wake of disappointing UK GDP data and lack of clear progress in EU-UK trade talks nS8N2GY09S.

Sterling's weakness helped the euro, with EUR/USD gains following on EUR/GBP's coattails rather than making a broader statement about the dollar or Europe's single currency.

More broadly, markets appeared to be consolidating recent losses in negatively yielding currencies such as the euro, yen and Swiss franc that Monday's vaccine and U.S. election news prompted.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the announcement of a COVID-19 vaccine means the end of the pandemic is finally in the offing but it is too early to declare victory.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the vaccine is good news for the medium term but it is too soon to assess the implications for the economy, while the next few months could be challenging. nN9N2HE02B.

The comments could leave markets expecting central bankers to remain extremely accommodative for now.

EUR/USD's correction from Monday's 1.1920 peak found cloud base support on Wednesday and an inside day on Thursday.
An unexpected euro zone industrial production decline in September highlighted Italy's recovery struggles nL8N2HY62G as the pandemic tightens its grip nL8N2HW7KM.

EUR/USD longs should continue to struggle nL1N2HY1SI.
Soft U.S. CPI data nAQN03DGP1 gave 10-year Bund-Treasury yield spreads some support and 10-year Bund-BTP spreads fell to their lowest in near two-and-half years.

Doubts about the EU's vaunted 2021-27 budget approval nB5N2HP02T may be a drag on the euro.

Sterling struck new lows for the week and is approaching 50% Fibo, tenkan and cloud top support at 1.3088/70.

The market is starting to gently price in negative rates by the BoE nL1N2HY1OF, and Governor Andrew Bailey said yield curve control had been discussed, though it is not needed now nL8N2HY39E.

USD/JPY slumped after failing the last three days to close above the daily cloud top at 105.525 or to seriously challenge the primary downtrend line from March, now at 105.85.
That line is reinforced by the 100-day moving average and October's 106.11 highs that were the last in a series of lower rebound highs since March nL8N2HY39E.

With the initial euphoria over Monday's vaccine news waning, the haven yen is starting to make a cautious comeback.
Support is at 105 and the 21-day moving average at 104.80, which caught Tuesday's 104.82 low.

AUD/USD and most high-beta currencies played defense as European and U.S. equities fell.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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