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By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 03 - 02:18 AM
  • Yesterday breaks below key techs concerned EUR/USD traders sitting long

  • EUR/USD reached 1.1952 EBS but then rallied to close 1.2091

  • Pair traded below 100-DMA 1.2031 and daily cloud but closed over both

  • Today's range 1.2079-93 has unfolded above daily cloud base at 1.2074

  • Consolidation that began Dec 2020 continues

  • High probability that a cloud twist on Mar 12 at 1.2107-15 attracts

  • Consolidation is unfolding at the upper-end of a big rise; bullish

EURUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Mar 03 - 02:17 AM
  • Majority of Wed's UK budget measures already reported, so no surprises

  • Suggests GBP markets unlikely to react, and options confirm that

  • Overnight expiry implied volatility is traders guess of actual volatility

  • At 11.0 on London open, it's same level it was before budget capture

  • Break-even for simple vanilla straddle is $64-pips either direction

  • 1-month implied volatility 8.05 vs 8.3 Tues and 9.5 peak last Fri

  • Still well above recent low and fair value - nL2N2L00Z0

For more click on FXBUZ

Overnight expiry GBP/USD option implied volatility Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 02 - 10:14 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.62% higher at 0.7820 after AUD outperformed

  • After trading at 0.7815 it was around 0.7825 when Aus Q4 GDP was released

  • It came I much better than expected and AUD/USD traded up to 0.7839 nL2N2L100N

  • Sellers emerged ahead of resistance at 0.7840/50 and it fell to 0.7820/25

  • The 10-day MA is at 0.7843 and 50% of 0.8007/0.7692 is at 0.7849

  • A break above 0.7850 targets the 61.8 of that move at 0.7886

  • Rising commodities and strong Aus economy underpinning AUD nL3N2L10FO

  • Support is at the 55-day MA at 0.7714 and break would suggest top in place

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Mar 02 - 10:10 PM
  • Touch softer, at the base of a quiet 1.3955-1.3970 range pre budget

  • Budget spending proposals pro jobs - key are tax initiatives nL2N2L03C9

  • Britain to ease listing rules to buttress London after Brexit nL5N2L02UQ

  • Delicate balance between easing rules and lowering regulation standards

  • Charts; bearish 5 & 10 DMA cross, while momentum studies head lower

  • Close below rising 21 DMA - 1.3898 today would be a negative signal

  • Bias is higher while 21 DMA holds - it has been support on the close in 2021

  • 1.3823, 61.8% of the February rise is pivotal support

    For more click on FXBUZ

gbp 2 mar 3 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 02 - 08:57 PM

The Australian dollar rose early Wednesday on news of surprisingly strong economic growth in the last quarter of 2020nL2N2L100N.
The 10-year Australian government bond yield also climbed in response to the data and that may provide the fuel for the AUD/USD to attempt a sustained break above 0.8000.

While the Q4 GDP data is old news, the above-forecast result came at a time of periodic lockdowns, border closures and ongoing uncertainty in Australia.
The strong breakdown of the growth data bodes well for 2021 when vaccine rollouts in Australia and globally are expected to drive a significant economic rebound.

The Reserve Bank of Australia met on Tuesday and reiterated their commitment to extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy and to maintaining a cap on the three-year government bond yield nL3N2L00DC. Yet if the 10-year bond yield continues to rise in anticipation of the Australian economy rebounding faster than the RBA expects, it will underpin the AUD/USD.

The 0.8000 level may prove stubborn resistance, as the AUD/USD completed a bearish outside week on Friday after hitting a two-year high of 0.8007 on Thursday.
A break above the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8007-0.7692 drop at 0.7886 would pave the way for at least an attempt to break back above 0.8000.

For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 02 - 07:41 PM
  • AUD/USD moved up to 0.7835 from 0.7825 after Aus Q4 GDP better than expected nAZN0UWT00

  • AUD/USD close to resistance that comes in at 0.7845/50

  • The 10-day MA is @ 0.7847 and 50% retracement of 0.80077/0.7692 is @ 0.7849

  • A break above 0.7850 targets the 61.8 of that move at 0.7886

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

aud/usd 2 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Mar 02 - 07:26 PM
  • Touch softer - closed +0.35% amid broad USD weakness as yields settled

  • Pressure on Germany to start easing COVID-19 lockdown next week nL5N2L02RR

  • French bankers seek EU law to move euro clearing from London nL2N2L01Z0

  • Bank of England will fight the move, but a drift to EU over time is viable

  • Techs; bounce leaves conflicting 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages

  • Lower 21 day Bollinger band a base on Tuesday - key support today at 1.1993

  • 1.2093-95, 5 and 21 day moving averages are initial resistance

  • Consolidation extends - 1.1993-1.2198 21 day Bollinger bands define range

    For more click on FXBUZ

eur mar 3 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 02 - 05:46 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.62% higher after outperforming in broad USD fall

  • Calming bond yields supported risk currencies and weighed on USD

  • AUD best performing currency Tuesday - as key commodities broke higher

  • Copper rose over 2.5% and completed a bullish outside day nL2N2L00W5

  • AUD/USD traded as high as 0.7837 before closing just above 0.7820

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.7842 and 50% of 0.8007/0.7692 at 0.7850

  • Support comes in at the 21-day MA at 0.7775 and the 55-day MA at 0.7714

  • Aus Q4 GDP is out today and the market is expecting +2.5% Q/Q

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 02 - 03:00 PM

UOB Research discusses Spot Gold technical outlook and sees a scope for a decline towards $1670 within the next couple of months. 

"The bottom of the weekly Ichimoku chart sits at $1,761 and this level is also close to the Dec 2020 low of $1,764. Spot gold not only cracked this major support level, it also closed below the 55-week exponential moving average for the first time since May 2019. Note that spot gold has not closed below the 55-week exponential moving average since April 2019 and this is also the first time it closed below the Ichimoku cloud since Jan 2019," UOB notes.

"All in, the technical developments suggest further spot gold weakness within these couple of months. The next major support is at $1,670. This level is near the rising trend-line that started from May 2019 and is also close to the June 2020 low. A break of this major support could potentially trigger a sharp sell-off. On the upside, a break of $1,820 would indicate that spot gold is not ready to head lower towards $1,670 just yet," UOB adds. 


UOB Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 02 - 03:21 PM
  • USD/JPY ran into overbought pressures near key hurdles at 107.05/08/16

  • August's high and 61.8% Fibo of the June-January slide are at 107.05/08

  • The 50% Fibo of the March-January drop is also at 107.16

  • Failure to close above 107.08/16 would trigger an overdue correction

  • Support's at the 50% Fibo of the Jun-Jan drop and Feb. 17 EBS high at 106.22

  • The Feb. 22 high and Feb. 25 and 26 lows at 105.84-85 are secondary support

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 02 - 02:47 PM

The dollar fell on Tuesday, losing early gains as 10-year TIPS yields softened throughout the U.S. session and allowing EUR/USD to recover after breaking temporarily below 100-day moving average support.

It was the second time in four sessions that EUR/USD reversed after appearing to achieve a range breakout.

EUR/USD found a strong bid below 1.2000 after breaking the 100-DMA at 1.2028, rising back toward Monday's 1.21015 high on EBS as 10-year TIPS yields fell nearly 8bp intraday.

EUR/USD's rebound ignored further indications that next week's ECB meeting will signal a stronger response to rising yields, perhaps through greater use of PEPP nL5N2L04UBnIfp777kJD.

Thursday's Treasury yield spike and mini-panic helped reverse EUR/USD away from that day's 1.22435 high.

Fed officials have mostly remained mum about this year's rapid bear Treasury yield curve steepening, though Fed Governor Lael Brainard said bond-market volatility last week "caught my eye" nW1N2FT038.

The Fed's largely focused on the need to delay any tightening due to it's loftier inflation and employment goals that they don't see being achieved any time soon nL2N2L01J5.

For the rest of the week, Treasury yields and the dollar will be guided by Wednesday's ADP, ISM services and beige book report, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday and Friday's employment report.
If the upbeat expectations for these data are met, EUR/USD's recovery could be short-lived nL2N2L01JM.

USD/JPY's 106.955 peak neared important resistance, with tech studies flashing overbought warnings nL2N2L01Q0.
But there may be one last push to key topside objectives at 107.05/08 or 107.32 before a more pronounced pullback.
The mid-Feb swing high and 50% Fibo of the June-January drop at 106.22 would then be the first important support.

Sterling, in four short sessions, nearly retraced half of this year's 1.3451-4240 advance with a fleeting 1.3860 low, near the 50% Fibo at 1.3846.
A close above Monday's high by 1.4000 would help shake off the dip below the 21-day moving average nL2N2L01I8.

British finance minister Rishi Sunak promised to do "whatever it takes" to shield the economy while exiting the pandemic nL9N2JS023.

AUD/USD extended its rebound away from the 55-day moving average that caught its fall from Thursday's peak, as last week's risk-off flows into month-end and amid the spike in Treasury yields has been followed by calmer markets, while the RBA meeting yielded only a brief pullback.

A Chinese official warned about potential cross-border financial risk tied to financial asset bubbles in the U.S., Europe and other major economies nL2N2L0074.
This as the Biden administration is maintaining a hard line toward China on trade and other issues and Chinese growth tails off.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Mar 02 - 01:38 PM
  • GBP/USD firm into NY close +0.32% at 1.3973; Tues range 1.3974-1.3860

  • UST long-end yields move lower; recent USD longs cover sub-1.39

  • Sterling rebounds from lows but may still be tested nL2N2L01I8

  • Res at 10-DMA by 1.3999, 1.4065 upper 30-wk Bolli, 1.4240 Feb 24 trend high

  • Supt 1.3828 30DMA, 1.3707 55DMA, bears in control sub1.3547 50% 1.2854-1.424

  • EUR/GBP ends NY flat by 0.8650, Tues range 0.8665-37; early GBP strength fades as USD broadly hit

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 02 - 01:30 PM

MUFG Research sees a scope for further USD gains on the back of long-term yield spread.

"The long-term yield spread between German Bunds and US Treasuries continues to widen reaching 175 basis points. The spread is moving back closer to pre-pandemic levels from February when it was trading closer to 200 basis points and is now well above levels from during last summer when it was trading between 100 and 120 basis points," MUFG notes.

"The Fed’s greater tolerance for allowing higher yields than the ECB’s could be contributing to the widening yield spread in the near-term. In contrast, the ECB has clearly expressed more concern over rising European yields.. The developments are offering more support for the US dollar in the near-term," MUFG adds 

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 02 - 12:31 PM
  • EUR/USD breaks below 76.4% Fib of 1.1952-1.22435, hits 1.1992 (EBS)

  • Sharp bounce ensues though, daily cloud base neared, bull hammer forms

  • Daily RSI diverges, chance rally to extends is growing

  • Monthly RSI falling though & pair still below 10 & 21-DMAs

  • Bulls likely need break above 55-DMA, cloud top to take back control

  • Rally sellers likely lurk near 21- & 1-DMAs then near 1.2145/55

  • For more click on FXBUZ

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 02 - 10:45 AM

Societe Generale Research flags a scope for further EUR/USD downside on the back of positioning adjustment in the near-term.

"Short dollar positions are finally beginning to be cut back, which is a necessary condition for further weakness but also a testing period, since the dollar will either trade sideways for a bit longer, or go up. In 2018, cutting back EUR/USD longs took EUR/USD from 1.25 to 1.14 before a big EUR/USD short then took it further. Dollar bears will now have their mettle tested," SocGen notes.

"A week ago EUR/USD was testing the top end of its range. Now it's testing the bottom end, dragged lower. by these yield and rate moves, not to mention the contrast between how the Fed and ECB talk about the economic outlook... That should see the euro find some support before too long but, this morning and maybe this week, there is no doubt that the momentum is with the dollar and against the euro," SocGen adds. 

Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Mar 02 - 09:46 AM
  • Fallout from last Wed's strong bull signal clouding direction

  • Tight doji candle action hinting at market indecision

  • Despite speed and magnitude of price turn the primary bear trend is holding

  • We bid by 0.8630, 0.8637 today's low, for 0.8730-40 area

  • The makings of a pivotal week as trend courts reversal risk and resumption

  • Key trigger points remain 0.8540 and 0.8730, recent price extremes

    For more click on FXBUZ

EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 02 - 09:30 AM

Danske Research flags a downside risk for EUR/USD over the coming weeks.

"We have already seen EUR/USD turning more cyclical and is trading lower on upbeat US data (like ISM) and markets are now roughly pricing 60% odds of a hike in 2022. US real rates are still priced in negative territory and the real rates curve have mostly steepened beyond the 5-year point. We see a substantial risk of further steepening in the 2-4year segment of the dollar real rates and with it, we would expect dollar to strengthen broadly too. Rising real rates need not be particularly negative for inflation expectations, though," Danske notes. 

"As often has been the case, USD/CNY shares a trend with USD/Asia, any high beta Emerging Market crosses and Scandies. The macro and price action in recent weeks seem well in line with EUR/USD topping out, EUR/Scandies and USD/Scandies bottoming," Danske adds. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 02 - 08:51 AM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and highlights the importance of the 107.15 level for near-term directional bias.

"With the 50% retracement of the entire fall from March not far above at 107.15, we continue to look for this to then ideally cap for now for a fresh phase of consolidation. Above 107.15 though can see the risk stay directly higher with resistance seen next at 107.53 and eventually 108.17/23 – the 61.8% retracement and July 2020 high," CS notes. 

"Support moves higher to 106.36 initially, then 106.21, with 105.85/82 needing to hold to keep the immediate risk higher. Below can ease the immediate upside bias for a fall back to the 200 -day at 105.54/46," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 02 - 06:50 AM
  • Cable reclaims 1.39 handle after rallying off 1.3860 (low since Feb 18)

  • Rally fuelled by USD paring gains: USD index retreats to 91.144 from 91.396

  • 91.396 = high since Feb 5. 1.3933 and 1.40 are GBP/USD resistance levels

  • 1.3933 was Asian session high. Offers just shy of 1.40 capped cable Monday

  • Poll-Gilt issuance to be second-highest on record at almost GBP 250 billion

  • See: nL5N2KZ6SU. Sunak to unveil UK budget Wednesday (from 1230GMT)

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 02 - 06:09 AM
  • AUD/USD probes for mooted offers pre-0.78 after rallying off 0.7737

  • 0.7737 = European am low (at 0910GMT). 0.7737 was also Asia low, post-RBA

  • RBA commits to keep 3-year yields low amid bond rout nL3N2L00DC

  • Resistance levels beyond 0.7800 include 0.7813 and 0.7830 (10DMA)

  • 0.7813 = 38.2% Fibo of 0.8007 (Thursday's three-year high) to 0.7693

  • 0.7693 was Friday's 3-week low. Aussie Q4 GDP data due 0030GMT nL3N2KZ4O7

AUDUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 02 - 05:16 AM
  • There is talk of good-sized offers close to the 107.00 level

  • USD/JPY has seen a 106.73-93 range on Tuesday on the EBS data

  • 106.93 is the highest USD/JPY has traded since August 31 2020

  • EBS flow data shows increased sales since London started trading

  • FX traders beware of USD/JPY's "cloud twist" on Thursday nL2N2L00G4

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlation remains under +0.5

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 02 - 03:48 AM

FX traders might break a negative seasonal trend this month as USD/CHF rises.
Analysis shows for March since the year 2000 USD/CHF has dropped in 14 of the past 21 years, or 67% of the time.

Seasonality data on its own must be corroborated by other factors.
If global stocks come under sustained pressure again this month, demand would probably grow for the safe-haven Swiss franc, which in turn could limit USD/CHF's upside.

The technical outlook, however, suggests USD/CHF is likely to break its March curse.
Last week, USD/CHF registered a 117-pip rise, its biggest one-week rise since November 2020, which could provide the momentum for spot to close higher this month.
This week, USD/CHF's strong rise has broken the 0.9169 Fibonacci level -- a 76.4% retrace of the 0.9296 to 0.8759 (September 2020 to January 2021) fall -- another positive development.

For more click on FXBUZ

USD/CHF Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 02 - 02:37 AM
  • Yesterday EUR/USD broke and closed below daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.2054

  • Pair reached 1.2028, closed 1.2049 then today broke 100-DMA at 1.2027

  • Asia's range 1.2005-50 EBS, Europe's high is 1.2027, the 100-DMA

  • Likely to see progression towards lower 20-Day Bollinger band 1.1982

  • 2021 low at 1.1952 exposed by this week's bearish breaks

  • Traders still hold many bullish bets ($21bln)

  • Correction targets: 50% Nov-Jan rise 1.1975, 61.8% 1.1887, 76.4% 1.1778

EURUSD Click here

EURUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Mar 02 - 02:10 AM
  • Four day slide just dips below the 21DMA and our 1.3895 bid filled

  • Counter bias trade looks for return to the high 1.41s with a sub-1.38 stop

  • Feb 17 1.3830 low seen pivotal; bears cement control below

  • 61.8% Fibo at 1.3823 off 1.3566-1.4240 climb: 76.4% retrace at 1.3725

  • Topside and the 10DMA the initial hurdle, 1.3990

  • 14-day bull momentum fades significantly: RSI sharply lower from o/b levels

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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