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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Burton Frierson  —  Oct 07 - 03:45 PM

  • EUR net spec long rises to 43,682 contracts by Tuesday from 33,797 the previous week

  • JPY net spec short 81,623 versus 82,556 contracts

  • GBP net spec short increases to 49,539 contracts vs 46,424 the previous week

  • AUD net spec short decreases to 27,764 contracts vs 34,653 the previous week

  • NZD, CAD shorts both increase



Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 07 - 01:40 PM
  • After choppy overnight trading AUD/USD opened NY near 0.6425

  • Upside surprise for Sept. US jobs nL1N3172NB sent AUD/USD lower

  • US rates EDH3 gains as a higher Fed terminal rate was priced in

  • Safe-haven US$, yen bought; USD/CNH neared 7.1325, AUD/JPY hit 92.47

  • Equities ESv1, commodities HGv1 dropped to bolster risk-off sentiment

  • AUD/USD fell to 0.6370 before bouncing, pair sat near 0.6385 late

  • Falling RSIs, ongoing consolidation, price below 10-DMA are bearish signs

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 07 - 01:30 PM

MUFG Research reacts to its latest GBP/USD short ToTW position which hit its 1.1450 stop earlier this week.

"We have closed our short cable trade idea after the stop-loss was hit earlier this week," MUFG notes. 

"We underestimated the scope for the GBP to extend its rebound, and our recommendation to re-establish short GBP exposure proved premature," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 07 - 11:50 AM

GBP/USD fell on Friday to a low of 1.1090 -- near Monday's intraweek trough -- after solid U.S. payrolls data nL1N3172NB and further losses are likely, particularly if next week's U.S. CPI and retail sales data further underpin Fed rate-hike expectations.

Slowing sterling's fall, BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden reinforcing the need for sharper rate hikes to tackle 10% inflation nL8N3182JI, with the market pricing in rate hikes of 100bp in November and December and a bank rate peak near 5.7% by mid-2023.

Markets priced in most of that massive tightening when surging gilts yields forced BoE intervention, though emergency purchases are slated to end on Oct.
14.

A close below the 38.2% Fibo of the rebound from September's 1.0327 record low to Wednesday's 1.1493 high at 1.1048, as well as the kijun and tenkan now at 1.1033/16, could put in play the 50% and 61.8% Fibos at 1.0910/772.

But a full retracement to the 1.0327 nadir may be a stretch in the near-term unless gilts dive after BoE support ends or unless U.S. CPI and retail sales are well above forecast next week.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 07 - 11:05 AM

ING Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP/USD in the near-term.

"While moving largely in line with other European currencies, the pound continues to show a higher beta to risk sentiment compared to only a few weeks ago. This is likely a legacy of the late-September meltdown that is there to stay," ING notes.

"We still deem the pound’s current levels as unsustainable given the fragility in the bond market and the UK’s deteriorated fiscal and current account position. A return to sub-1.10 levels in Cable is a question of when rather than if, in our view," ING adds. 

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 07 - 09:50 AM

EUR/USD slid to a six-session low beneath the 10-day moving average on Friday after U.S. jobs data added to a euro-negative news flow that could lead to a test of 0.9500.

Solid September U.S. employment data nL1N3172NB left investors expecting the Fed to remain hawkish nL1N31813P and keep rates higher for longer, with futures markets pricing in a higher peak in borrowing costs EDH3, enhancing the dollar's yield advantage over the euro.

The payrolls report followed German import and export prices in August indicating inflation remains hot, which negatively impacted consumer spending and industrial output nL8N3181GL.
The data increases the probability of a euro zone recession, which could constrain the ECB's rate-hike intentions.

EUR/USD technicals highlight downside risks.
Daily and monthly RSIs imply downside momentum remains and EUR/USD trades below the falling 10-, 21- and 55-DMAs.

The U.S. and German data should give EUR/USD shorts a boost of confidence, increasing the chances of another test of support near 0.9500, a break of which would bring the 0.9000 area into focus.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 07 - 10:00 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights the importance of next week's  G20 finance ministers meeting in Washington.

"Ahead of the meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors on 12 and 13 October in Washington DC, FX investors have been speculating about the prospects for a concerted intervention to weaken the USD across the board. The main argument brought forward in favour of a potential Plaza Accord 2.0 is the disruptive impact that the strong USD is having on global financial stability and therefore the global growth outlook," CACIB notes. 

"Another reason for a concerted action to put an end to the USD rally is the fact that USD-buying begets more USD-buying. Indeed, the central banks that intervene to defend their currencies vs the USD tend to sell US fixed income securities and thus boost the USD rate and yield advantage. The strong USD and growing funding costs have made the servicing of USD debt more expensive," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 07 - 09:12 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US jobs report for the month of September. 

"Hiring remained brisk in the US in September, showing that the Fed has more work to do to meet its goal of taming an overheated economy. The 263K jobs created were slightly above the consensus of 255K, and that was bolstered by an 11K upward revision to the prior two-month job tally. The health care and leisure and hospitality sectors posted the largest increases in jobs, with other industries mostly seeing modest gains," CIBC notes. 

"The household survey recorded a 204K increase in jobs, and combined with a retrenchment in the labor force participation rate, that left the unemployment rate two ticks lower at 3.5% (vs. 3.7% expected). Wage growth continued at 0.3% m/m pace, leaving wages up by 5.0% over the past year, which remains too high to be consistent with 2% inflation," CIBC adds.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 07 - 07:15 AM
  • AUD/USD fell to a 7-session low overnight, 0.6385 hit then bounce ensued

  • Drop aided by US$ buying driven by a rise in US interest rates EDH3

  • USD/CNH rally above 7.1325 also helped send AUD/USD to the session lows

  • EquityESv1, commodityHGv1 slides, AUD/JPY drop added weight

  • US$ buys abated, AUD/USD neared 0.6430, sits nearby at NY's open

  • Consolidation of recent fall, monthly inverted hammer are bearish signs

  • US jobs data looms, an upside surprise may rally US rates, US$ again

  • Consolidation then likely ends and the May 2020 low comes into focus

  • For more click on FXBUZ



Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Oct 07 - 05:45 AM

Oct 7 (Reuters) - Sterling looks set for further volatility through the end of next week - when the Bank of England's temporary long-dated gilt purchase programme is due to end.

The pound might be negatively impacted if the programme ends as planned on Oct.
14 and long-dated gilt yields spike in the aftermath.
This risk may at least be postponed if the BoE announces an extension to its gilt backstop by a week or two (BoE QT is scheduled to begin on Oct.
31).

Extending the backstop could encompass a new date for UK finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng's fiscal plan, assuming it is brought forward from Nov.
23 next week.
The plan could help sterling and gilts if it is well received - in contrast to Kwarteng's "fiscal event" on Sept.
23, which torpedoed the pound.

GBP/USD has traded a daily range in excess of two cents on seven consecutive days since the BoE stepped into the gilt market on Sept.
28, having traded a two-cent+ daily range just once in the six weeks before Sept.
23. nL8N3174BI

Related comments: nL1N3150FNnL1N3140K8

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Oct 07 - 04:55 AM
  • Cable hits 1.1217 after rally from low just shy of 1.1114 (Thursday's base)

  • Rally aided by position adjustments after failure to break 1.1114

  • Price action reminiscent of Wednesday in reverse (after 1.15 failure)

  • 'Flicker of optimism' re: EU-UK dispute over NI protocol is positive for GBP

  • See: nL1N3180FY. 1.1217 is ex-support point (23.6% Fibo of 1.0327-1.1493)

  • U.S. employment report due 1230 GMT; September NFP f/c 250k nL1N317296

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Oct 07 - 04:45 AM
  • Swiss FX reserve has slumped by 118 billion francs since May

  • USD is 38% of reserve (equiv 45 billion dollars 118 billion drop)

  • That is a great deal of potential support for EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD has been afforded an unusual degree of support below parity

  • EUR/USD traders long, techs bearish, US/EZ rate divide weighing

  • Little hedging for parity break and economists bullish

  • Reserve changes may one of main factors supporting EUR/USD

  • Today's NFP release could spark USD rally


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Oct 07 - 02:50 AM
  • Double day highs 1.1490-93 and pullback to 1.1114

  • Daily momentum readings confirm latest price drop and reversal

  • Minimum correction from 1.0327-1.1493 met at 1.1218, next level 1.1048

  • Last week's hammer candle set to be negated by a negative close today

  • Long weekly upper candle shadow noted

  • Will take a close above 1.1543, 10DMA, to change sterling's fortunes

    for more click on FXBUZ



Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Oct 07 - 02:05 AM
  • EUR/USD, on Tuesday, registered a daily close above the 0.9942 Fibo

  • 0.9942 Fibo, is a 61.8% retrace of the 1.0198 to 0.9528 (EBS) drop

  • The market relapsed on Wednesday, failing to close above 0.9942 level again

  • That failure set up a bull trap: mkt breaks above a tech and then reverses

  • Scope for a drop through 0.9708 Fibo, 61.8% of the 0.9528-0.9999 rise

  • We are looking to get short on recovery moves. Offer at 0.9900

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N3170BZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Oct 07 - 01:35 AM
  • EUR/USD: 0.9690-00 (1.6BLN), 0.9730-40 (1.29BLN)

  • 0.9750-55 (1.14BLN), 0.9770-75 (820M), 0.9800-10 (2.17BLN)

  • 0.9845-55 (1.98BLN), 0.9860 (254M), 0.9870-80 (694M)

  • 0.9900 (1.79BLN), 0.9915-25 (1.84BLN), 0.9940-50 (1.2BLN)

  • USD/JPY: 143.90-00 (380M), 144.55-57 (417M), 145.00 (235M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9900 (212M). EUR/CHF: 0.9625 (260M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.1050 (255M), 1.1150 (230M), 1.1220 (255M)

  • 1.1300 (585M), 1.1400 (572M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (1.1BLN), 0.8900 (536M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6370 (371M), 0.6545-50 (309M), 0.6535 (395M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3715-20 (535M), 1.3885 (900M)

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 06 - 11:40 PM

  • +0.2% near the top of a 1.1137-1.1187 range with light flow on D3

  • Position adjustments often dominate in Asia ahead of volatile U.S. jobs

  • UK retailers sales growth sinks to new post-COVID low - BDO nL8N3172NN

  • Cost of living crunch set to weigh on most sectors - tough winter in the UK

  • Charts, daily momentum studies conflict, 21 day Bollinger bands edge lower

  • 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages show mixed signals - neutral daily setup

  • Close below 1.1104 10 day moving average would be bearish for next week

  • Asian 1.1137 low and NY 1.1253 high are initial support and resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Oct 06 - 11:15 PM
  • AUD/USD opened -1.22% at 0.6411 after USD soared on hawkish Fed-speak nL1N31723T

  • After trading at 0.6405 it tracked higher as USD eased slightly

  • AUD/USD traded up to 0.6432 and is trading around 0.6425 into the afternoon

  • AUD/USD move mostly due to position adjustments ahead of US jobs

  • AUD vulnerable if US payrolls are strong, as USD will gain and risk will sell-off

  • There was no reaction to RBA Financial Stability Review, which partly explained decision to scale back rate hike to 25 BPs nS9N2ZT01B

  • AUD/USD support at Thursday 0.6390 low and 2022 trend low at 0.6363

  • Resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.6596 with sellers eyed ahead of 0.6550

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Oct 06 - 08:50 PM
  • RBA Financial Stability Review warned of increasing financial stress nS9N2ZT01B

  • The AUD/USD hasn't reacted to the review and remains around 0.6410/15

  • The RBA warnings partly explain their decision to hike 25 BPs instead of 50

  • Market is focussed on external factors in determining AUD/USD direction

  • Price action today will be driven by positioning for the US jobs data

  • A strong US payroll report will likely send USD higher and risk assets lower

  • AUD would be especially vulnerable if the US payroll numbers are strong

  • Support is at the trend low at 0.6363 and yesterday's 0.6390 low

  • Resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.6596 with sellers ahead of 0.6550

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 06 - 08:05 PM

  • -0.05% after closing down 0.95%, on broad hawkish Fed led USD strength

  • Yield differentials were unchanged, 10yr Bunds and UST yields climbed 7bp

  • German recession fears weighed nL8N3173TF, with U.S. economy resilient

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict

  • 21 day Bollinger bands edge lower - signals show no strong bias

  • 1.0044 T/L from Feb 10 and 1.0047, 61.8% Aug-Sep fall major resistance

  • Close below very close 0.9783 rising 10 DMA would be bearish for next week

  • 0.9770/75 820 mlm and 0.9800 2.068 BLN are Friday's close strikes

    For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Oct 06 - 06:45 PM
  • EUR/USD fell 0.89% after US yields and USD rose on hawkish Fed comments nL1N31723T

  • It is testing the 10-day MA @ 0.9783 and clear break would increase pressure

  • Market is pricing in a strong US payroll report that would cement hawkish Fed expectations nL1N31723M

  • Renewed worries over Europe energy supplies and state of UK finances supporting USD as well

  • Only a weaker than expected US jobs report would support EUR/USD

  • Price action after US payrolls will likely be volatile

  • Key support at double-bottom formed at 0.9525/35

  • Key resistance is at a trend-line from Feb 10, which comes in at 1.0044

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Oct 06 - 05:45 PM
  • USD/JPY bid in Asia after rallying 0.3% Thu as Fed pounds rate hike drum

  • Fed officials reiterate broad consensus for continued rate hikesnL1N31723T

  • Boosted by rising US yields; 10-yr rises 7bps, 2-yr up 10bps nL1N3172Q5

  • Traders eye US jobs data Fri that is likely to reinforce hawkish Fed stance

  • Threat of Japan FX action may slow rally as USD approaches 145.40-145.90

  • Fed-BOJ policy divergence limits downside; supports 144.70-80, 144.40-50

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Oct 06 - 01:40 PM
  • GBP$ -1.35% to 1.1165 into NY close, Thurs range 1.1379-1.1114

  • UK DMP survey shines light on persistent UK inflation, UK recession outlook

  • GBP$ hit by dour BoE survey as positions trimmed pre-payrolls nL1N3171A1

  • GBP longs unwind positions on U.S. yield rise, pre-Friday's payrolls report

  • Supt at Thurs low 1.1114, 10DMA 1.1074, 1.0910's 50% of 1.0327-1.1493 rise

  • Sub-1.0910 bears gain momentum for run toward lwr 30-d Bolli supt at 1.0819

  • EUR/GBP +0.58% to 0.8782; GBP bulls shrug off higher UK rates eye inflation-recession risks

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 06 - 01:35 PM
  • AUD/USD fell overnight as US rate US2YT=RR gains drove broad US$ buying

  • NY opened near 0.6465 & lifted after claims, layoff data nL1N3161AZ

  • Bounce was sold as safe-havens US$, yen remained bid on risk-off theme

  • USD/CNH rallied toward 7.0900, AUD/JPY fell to 92.65 before bouncing

  • Equity ESv1, commodity HGv1 drops reinforced risk-off sentiment

  • AUD/USD broke the bear pennant base on daily charts, hit 0.6390

  • US$ buying abated, AUD/USD lifted above 0.6420 late in the day

  • Techs lean bearish; daily, monthly RSIs fall, monthly inverted hammer forms

  • US Sept. jobs & its potential impact on Fed policy is a risk for Friday

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 06 - 01:35 PM
  • US rate gains US2YT=RR helped buoy US$ overnight, EUR/USD was sold

  • NY opened near 0.9890, pair lifted after US jobs data nL1N3161AZ

  • Soured risk drove investors into safe-haven assets, US$, yen bought

  • EUR/JPY fell to141.98 on EBS, USD/CNH rallied towards 7.0900

  • EUR/USD overnight drop resumed, pair eventually hit 0.9789 on EBS

  • US$ buying abates after Europe's close, EUR/USD neared 0.9810 late

  • Techs lean bearish; RSIs falling, monthly inverted hammer is in place

  • Sept. US jobs report & its potential impact on Fed policy is a risk Friday

  • It may take more than a downbeat payrolls to boost EUR/USD nL1N31716A

  • For more click on FXBUZ




Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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