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Goldman Sachs Research previews the US August CPI report due on Friday.
"We expect a 0.23% increase in August core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.40% (vs. +2.4% consensus). We expect a 0.39% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.4% consensus), reflecting higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a similar 0.22% increase in core PCE in August," GS notes.
"Looking beyond August, we expect monthly core CPI increases of around 0.2% for the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories and shrinking contributions from tariff-related price increases, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associated oil price increases prove more persistent than expected," GS adds.