RBC provides a preview of the upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for November, set to be released on December 8. The bank forecasts a job gain with specific attention to the impact of recent labor strikes.
- Forecasted Job Gain: RBC predicts a job gain of 185k for the November payroll report.
- Impact of Labor Strikes: The forecast includes the caveat that part of this month's job strength is due to the return of workers from labor strikes. Notably, the end of the UAW strike at the end of October and the conclusion of the nearly four-month SAG-AFTRA strike on November 9 contribute to an expected payroll boost of around 40k.
- Striking Workers in Household Survey: Striking workers are not counted as unemployed in the household survey, so their return to work does not influence the unemployment figures from the previous month.
- Expected Rise in Unemployment Rate: RBC anticipates an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.0%, marking the first time it reaches this level since January 2022.
RBC's forecast for the US November NFP report highlights a moderate job gain influenced by the resolution of major labor strikes. While the return of striking workers is expected to boost the payroll figures, the unemployment rate is predicted to tick up, reaching a level not seen since early 2022. This outlook provides insights into the current labor market dynamics in the US, balancing the effects of strike resolutions with broader employment trends.