• EUR net spec short 63,256 contracts as of Tuesday versus short of 52,334 contracts previous week

• JPY net spec long 55,440 contracts versus long of 71,982 contracts previously

• GBP net spec short 91,095 contracts vs 82,568 short

• AUD net spec short 63,239 contracts vs 46,814 short

• MXN net spec long 52,402 contracts vs 75,167 long

• CHF net spec short 24,617 contracts vs 26,752 short

• CAD short 78,671 contracts vs 53,210 short
EUR net spec Oct 2 2026

(Burton Frierson)

(Corrects typo in line 2)

• NY opened near 1.1235, pair rallied after the September jobs report

• The softer data sent the USD, US yields , USD/CNH down

• Riskier assets like gold, silver, equities rallied to reinforce the USD selling

• EUR/USD hit 1.1285 but then a good portion of the data-induced gains faded

• USD, yields turned up, gold & silver turned down & oil moved upward

• EUR/USD sat near 1.1250 late, it traded up only +0.10% in NY's afternoon

• Daily RSI turned up but monthly RSI indicates longer-term downward momentum

• Widening Bolli bands, pair's hold below 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6935 after 0.6914 traded overnight, pair rallied early

• USD, US yields fell after the US September payroll data

• Gold, silver, copper, stocks rallied while USD/CNH fell to 6.7008

• AUD/USD hit 0.6976, bulls couldn't add to those gains however

• USD, yields moved upward while gold and silver turned lower

• AUD/USD neared 0.6945 late, it traded up only +0.23% in NY's afternoon

• Techs are mixed; daily RSI rising but pair is below the 10- & 200-DMAs

• AUD/USD could be entering a consolidation phase, also a bearish signal
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research argues that EUR/USD is unlikely to repeat the 20222 sell-off.

"We are cautious on the EUR from current levels but doubt that a repeat of the aggressive 2022 sell-off is on the cards.

Firstly, the Eurozone economy shows considerable resilience, supported by robust domestic demand. It also remains to be seen whether the contagion from the OAT sell-off would intensify significantly further, in a blow to the EUR," CACIB notes.

"Also, the ECB is very focused on containing inflation, and its hikes support the EUR rate appeal. The downside risks to our EUR outlook would grow, however, if the EGB market sell-off escalates and thus tightens European financial conditions, limiting the ECB’s ability to hike too aggressively," CACIB adds.

• GBP marginally firmer post-payrolls but later pared gains. Range: 1.3184-1.3256

• Spot remains confined to narrow ranges, with rebounds lacking conviction

• Attempts to break below 1.3200 have stalled ahead of the 1.3140-60 support zone

• Initial resistance sits at 1.3274, followed by 1.3300

• Shallow dips in US yields also keep dollar risks leaning higher, putting a lid on cable

• However, sterling still performing against EUR, but support at 0.8500 holds for now
GBPUSD hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research maintains a bullish bias on GBP over the medium-term.

"Like France, the UK faces budget proximity risk, yet GBP has outperformed, only lagging JPY & USD over the past month. GBP is no longer the fiscal punching bag within G10 FX, partly due to "safety in numbers", but also more fundamental improvements. Sticky FDI inflows have provided a meaningful fillip to the UK's balance of payments. Gilts are under pressure due to global moves but outperforming cross-market, aided by the BoE's overhaul of the QT sales process. Finally, strengthening EU-UK ties now appears a more focused objective for the UK government," BofA notes.

"While serious negotiations are unlikely near-term, the prospect of all options being on the table is a medium-term positive for GBP. We stay constructive," BofA adds.

• EUR/CHF meets headwind pre-0.9325 after rallying off 0.9260

• 0.9325 was EBS low on Thursday. 0.9260 was 10-week low at 1232 GMT

• Drop to 0.9260 prompted by wider French-German bond yield spread

• Hedge funds account for around 50% of French spread blowout, Fidelity says

• More EUR/CHF offers likely near 0.9350 and 0.9375

• 0.9260 is more than 2% below Wednesday's 17-month high

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook for the coming week.

"The EUR/USD pair set a fresh cycle low of 1.1215 this week, which we think is more a function of both the move up in the USD combined with France’s fiscal concerns," ANZ notes.

"EUR/USD is testing under 1.13 today. We think this is likely close to the floor. The move in the OAT-bund spreads and USD rally have all been absorbed. It is hard to see any developments in the week ahead that could take the EUR/USD lower, so we expect the 1.12– 1.13 range to hold in the week ahead," ANZ adds.

CIBC Research reviews today's US September jobs report.

"US job report came in softer than expected. September added 29K jobs in the US labour market, below the consensus expectation of 90K. Downward revisions brought employment in July and August combined 60K lower than previously expected. The downward revisions and the soft September print brings the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% m/m, below the 0.3% consensus expectation, which pulled the annual wage growth to just 3.0%, down from 3.1%. The participation rate ticked up slightly from 61.6% to 61.8%," CIBC notes.

"This release suggests that while job gains are softer than previously thought, unemployment rate still remain low. This means the September CPI report will be a crucial data point mid-month for the upcoming FOMC meeting," CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6914 overnight, buyers emerged, pair turned positive

• 0.6946 traded in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.6935, up +0.08%

• US yield , USD/CNH drops helped lift AUD/USD

• Gold, silver, copper & stock gains also contributed to the pair's gains

• AUD/USD remained within Thursday's trading range, indicates consolidation

• Consolidation is bearish as is falling monthly RSI, hold below 10- & 200-DMAs

• US Sept. payroll report due, robust jobs data could drive AUD/USD down
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• US-listed shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies rise as bitcoin and ethereum advance

• Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, rises 2.1% to $86,376.5, up for a fourth straight session; ether gains 1.9% at $2,749.3

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global jumps 2.9%, while bitcoin bull Strategy gains 3.1%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets gains 1.8%, while Webull adds 1.2%

• Crypto miners also gain ground: Riot Platforms 2.2%, Mara Holdings 2.7%, Bit Digital 3%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by the two eldest sons of President Donald Trump, surge 3.3%; ABTC is a majority-owned subsidiary of Hut 8 , which is up 1.9%

• Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet gains 2.5%; BTC mining machine maker Canaan jumps 3.1%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF adds 2.1%; iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rises 2%

• Ether-linked stocks Bitmine Immersion Technologies

and Sharplink Gaming up 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively

(Reporting by Anand Gopal in Bengaluru)

Oct 2 (Reuters) - USD/JPY bulls have had a structural advantage in October, which, if past trends continue, could see the pair climb in coming weeks to break back above 160.

USD/JPY has posted a positive return in October in 18 of the last 26 years, or 69% of the time, including in each of the last five years. However, seasonality should not be considered in isolation, rather it must be corroborated by other factors.

USD/JPY remains underpinned by the continued wide policy rate gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

This week USD/JPY failed on Monday and Wednesday to sustain a break under the 156.68 Fibo, a 38.2% retracement of the 150.89 to 159.03 (September) EBS rise, which is a bear trap.

A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a technical level but subsequently reverses and is usually a bullish sign.

The 14-day momentum reading is positive, further reinforcing the underlying bullish market structure for a 160 retest.
Seasonality Chart


Daily Chart


Central Bank Expectations Chart

(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

A USD/JPY death cross — a bearish signal that occurs when the 55-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average — may tempt traders to gamble on a decline.

While this would be a trade against the recent trend, in which the dollar rose strongly following a US interest-rate hike on September 16, there are reasons beyond the technicals why it could prove popular.

Expectations for further US rate hikes have diminished slightly following softer-than-expected inflation data and a drop in oil prices while surprisingly strong Japanese inflation data has raised the probability that the Bank of Japan raises rates further or faster than previously expected. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is trading in an area where some form of intervention to support the yen is widely anticipated. This could limit the yen's downside or trigger a rally, which could significantly enhance profits for those betting on a drop or limit their losses.

Those picking tops — selling into a rising market — may already have had some success, as the rally stalled ahead of the 55-day moving average. That average has since fallen to cap USD/JPY at a lower level and is now set to fall below the 200-day moving average, triggering the sell signal.
USDJPY

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Seems comments from Japanese officials eventually impacted USD/JPY

• From 158.21 early high and 157.92 around time of comments, off to 157.55 EBS

• EconMin Kiuchi admitted Japan out of deflation, loose BOJ policy no needed

• Granted, he did say "excessive loose policy" and not loose policy per se

• And he did say BOJ and government should continue to communicate closely

• That said, government may now be less antagonistic towards BOJ hikes

• FinMin Katayama also hinted at review of 200 or so funds worth Y7 tln

• This suggested maybe moves to spur more domestic investment

• With Tokyo CPI jumping, CPI data finally turning up with wholesale prices

• USD/JPY weakness this afternoon has the pair back into its hourly Ichi cloud

• Cloud currently 157.39-70 and ascending, 100-HMA in cloud at 157.52

• Breaks below the 100-HMA and cloud could see more USD/JPY weakness

• This however looks to be contingent on what US NFP/jobs data has in store

• Related , , on official-speak

• On Tokyo CPI , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Friday October 2

• EUR/USD: 1.1175-80 (870M), 1.1230-40 (300M), 1.1250 (290M), 1.1300 (380M), 1.1375 (2.2BLN)

• GBP/USD: 1.3230 (592M), 1.3250 (450M). EUR/CHF: 0.9410 (231M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6915 (260M), 0.6975-85 (548M), 0.7000 (340M), 0.7050-55 (949M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4100-15 (853M), 1.4275 (270M), 1.4300 (550M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (2.5BLN), 157.50-55 (1BLN), 157.75 (500M), 158.00 (2.9BLN), 159.00 (1BLN)

• FX options wrap — NFP risk fuels FX hedging surge (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Antares Metals rise as much as 30% to A$0.007, their highest since September 7

• Stock logs largest intraday pct gain since January 22

• Diversified miner commences maiden drilling program at its Quinns Gold and Copper Project, located in Western Australia

• For the week, stock is up more than 60%, set for their best week ever

• YTD, stock down 18.8%

(Reporting by Tejas Harish in Bengaluru)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 0.4%, but poised for a weekly decline of over 1%

• Stock on track to log its worst week since early September

• Gold prices down more than 3% this week and set on track for a second consecutive weekly decline [GOL/]

• Shares of Evolution Mining and Genesis Minerals

set for a weekly drop of 4% and 7%, respectively

• YTD, AXGD slips 2.3%

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.05% Fri, activity subdued ahead of important U.S. jobs data

• Global bond rout has broad USD index trading near 102.20 17-month high

• AUD ultimately targeting major 0.6834 support one, break would hasten fall

• U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +90k

• China suspends refined fuel exports, sources say ban extends through end Oct

• WTI elevated at $92.60 a barrel, energy supply concerns escalate yet again

• Range Asia 0.69135-30 support 0.6865 0.6834 0.6662, resistance 0.7282 0.7660
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.25% in Asia, near ytd lows ahead of pertinent U.S. jobs data

• U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +90k

• China suspends refined fuel exports, sources say ban extends through end Oct

• WTI elevated at $92.95 a barrel, energy supply concerns escalate yet again

• AUD sentiment continues to deteriorate, target 0.6865 support short term

• Range Asia 0.69135-30 support 0.6865 0.6834 0.6662, resistance 0.7282 0.7660
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY as high as 158.45 overnight on broadly bid USD, on high US yields

• Pulling back some in Asia so far, 158.15 to 157.83 EBS

• Market nervous ahead of US NFP/jobs data tonight, US yields higher still?

• Expectations for 90K rise in payrolls like ADP data Wednesday, jobless 4.1%

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials at recent highs in 2s, wider in 10s

• USD/JPY move up o/n stopped in area of 158.50 200-DMA, still heavy above?

• Still well short of recent base in area of daily Ichimoku kijun at 156.64

• Support from 157.69 200-HMA, 100-HMA 157.49 below

• Hourly Ichi cloud to ascend fast, currently 157.04-14, to 157.41-90

• In options, massive $2.9 bln in expiries today at 158.00, pivot or cap?

• But total $4.7 bln in expiries between 157.00-75 too, likely supportive

• Japanese exporter and maybe some more repatriation flows from @158.00 today

• This especially with FX intervention seen back on table by many

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Fed/Fed-speak ,

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -1.1% wtd, hits fresh 0.5594 ytd low Thur as USD index breaks higher

• 0.5845 post-'tariff-day' 2025 low looks within reach as NZ sentiment sours

• China suspends refined fuel exports, sources say ban extends through end Oct

• Brent crude +5.1% to $103 a barrel as supply concerns re-escalates yet again

• Pertinent U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +90K

• Range NZ 0.5601-085, support 0.5581 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% from Thur 0.6904 3-month low after breaching 0.6920 support

• Pair also traded below 52-WMA (0.6919) for first time in over 13-months

• China suspends refined fuel exports, sources say ban extends through end Oct

• DXY hits 102.20 - highest in over 16-months - as global bond rout continues

• Brent crude +5.9% to $103.80 a barrel, Gold +0.5%, Copper down 0.8%

• Bearish AUD signals compounding, next short-term target 0.6865 support zone

• Overnight range 0.6904-56 support 0.6865 0.6834 0.6662, resistance 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

JP Morgan highlights a scope for EUR/USD upside on corporate hedging shift.

"The dollar rally over the past month has pushed DXY above 100 and the euro below 1.14 vs the dollar. Spec positioning has moved accordingly, with the DXY having reached its most overbought level before retracing and the EUR positioning shifted further into negative territory. 

Our momentum signals in are similarly suggesting that momentum traders, such as CTAs are also short the euro and long the dollar," JPM notes.

"Corporate hedging shifts might be making the euro trading long vs the dollar even as spec investors are rather short," JPM adds.

• NY opened near 1.1295 after 1.1337 traded overnight, pair's drop extended in NY

• US yield rallied the USD; USD/CNH climbed above 6.7200

• US-German spreads widened which added weight on EUR/USD

• Drops in gold, silver and equities helped underpin the USD buying

• EUR/USD fell sharply, hit a 16-month low of 1.1215 before bouncing a bit

• The pair sat near 1.1230 late in the session, it was down -0.86% in Ny's afternoon

• Techs are bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, Bolli bands are widening

• Investors will focus on the US September jobs report as a key risk for Friday
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)