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Aug 17 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - Patience Needed As Bear Market Re-Groups
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 17 - 05:30 AM
  • Price continues to lack bounce out of recent 1.2662 lows
  • Marginally better bid but unable to make much progress
  • Price back inside its 30DMA Bolli envelope, which is bullish
  • We have an offer by 1.2890 and may revise lower on a soft weekly close
  • Daily bear momentum holding but stochs bull diverging
  • Aug 15 low 1.2662 and 30DMA lower Bolli, 1.2663 key

GBP/USD Trader:

EUR/GBP Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 17 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD - Respects Thursday's High On UK Data-Free Friday
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 17 - 03:10 AM
  • GBP/USD ran into resistance ahead of 1.2754 after vaulting 1.2726 (Asia top)
  • 1.2754 was Thursday's two-day high after some profit-taking on USD longs
  • IMM speculators upped net long USD position to 19-mth high in week to Aug 7
  • Data for week to Aug 14 likely to show further rise in net USD long position
  • USD sentiment set to remain prime influence on cable on UK data-free Friday
  • 1.2700, 1.2662 (Wednesday's 14-mth low) and 1.2650 are support levels

GBPUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 17 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Close Above 10DMA To Cause Major Trend Damage
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 17 - 02:55 AM
  • Long upper wick Thurs but mkt opens Frid inside the 30DMA Bolli envelope
  • Wed hammer candle bull signal completed by Thursday bull close
  • Scope for further gains and a run to our 1.1425 offer
  • Key levels topside 1.1430, Aug 14 top and 1.1455 10DMA
  • Close above the latter could trigger major damage to the s/t bear trend
  • If offer met would set a tight stop and possible reverse play

EUR/USD Trader:

EUR/USD Daily Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 17 - 03:48 AM
USD/JPY - Range-Bound, O-Bon Holidays Finale, In Ichi Cloud
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 11:30 PM

  • USD/JPY quiet, O-Bon holidays finale, 110.72-111.05 range EBS
  • Bids from @110.70, trail down, offers above 111.00, trail up
  • Option expiries brackets/tether - 110.50 USD2.2 bln, 110.80-90 751 mln
  • Also another USD530 mln between 111.00-15 strikes, 111.40-45 500 mln
  • US yields on soggy side, help cap, Nikkei up with Wall St, supportive
  • EUR/JPY above recent lows but soggy alongside EUR/USD, Asia 126.08-25 EBS

USD/JPY: Click here

EUR/JPY: Click here

Yield on US Treasury 10s: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 17 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Ekes Out Small Gains Despite RBA's Lowe
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 11:15 PM
  • AUD/USD up 0.11% Friday despite RBA Gov Lowe talking the A$ down
  • Governor Lowe also says rates to stay at record lows "for a while yet"
  • USD broadly a little lower in quiet end of week trading
  • AUD/USD range for the day 0.7253/80, last at 0.7268
  • Initial support at this week's lows in the 0.7203/15 zone
  • Res at s/t 38.2 Fibo at 0.7298, 10 DMA at 0.7319 - close above key for bulls

AUD daily: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 17 - 01:24 AM
EUR/USD: Lowering N-Term Profile On Significance Of 1.15 Break; Where To Target? - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 02:30 PM

Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of revising its near-term forecast profile on the ground of 'the significance of the break of 1.15.'

Danske now sees EUR/USD at 1.12 in 1M, 1.13 in 3M, 1.18 in 6M, and 1.25 (unchanged) in 12M .

"Short term, we think the relative-rate support to USD and EUR political risks will dominate, leaving EUR/USD in a sub-1.15 range but we see the cross staying above 1.10. However, in our view, the break of 1.15 on Turkey accelerated the recent fall and the Turkish risk premium should eventually fade and alleviate some of the downward pressure from USD carry near term. In addition, the relative cyclical picture may shift in favour of the euro area towards year-end and hold a hand under an otherwise strained pair," Danske argues. 

However, medium term, we expect the euro capital outflows of recent years to fade as the first ECB hike draws closer. Alongside valuation, this is set to support EUR/USD in 6-12M," Danske adds. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
Aug 16 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - Bears Remain In Control - Next Stop 1.2589
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 08:55 PM
  • Slow start in Asia after closing +0.1% amid modest USD weakness
  • Brexit off the radar, retail sales bounced nL5N1V729Y, USD/risk leads
  • Neutral momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 daily & weekly MAs trend south
  • Strong trending setup targets a test of 1.2589 June 2017 base
  • Close above 1.2798 10 DMA needed to undermine downtrend
  • London 1.2690 low & NY 1.2754 high initial support/resistance

gbp aug 17 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 09:48 PM
USD/JPY - Close Below The Cloud Would Be A Strong Negative
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 07:25 PM
  • Flat into Tokyo - opened +0.1% - JPY crosses broadly high as risk recovered
  • Traded within the cloud yesterday - parameters today 110.45 & 111.26
  • Tenkan line again horizontal with the Kijun line - suggests range trading
  • 110.50 2.2BLN, 110.80-90 750M & 111.00-10 470M strikes likely contain
  • Close below cloud would be a strong bearish signal - target 109.90 200 DMA
  • NY 110.56/111.12 EBS range is initial support/resistance

jpy aug 18 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Enjoys Lull In EM Turbulence, Settles In For Lowe
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 06:35 PM
  • AUD/USD ekes out gains as markets settle on hopes of thaw in U.S.-CN feud
  • Helped by pause in EM currency selloff, recovery in metals, solid jobs data
  • Gains muted on Fed-RBA rate divergence, trade tensions, fading EM prospects
  • Lowered inflation forecasts, low wage growth leaves RBA firmly on hold
  • Gov.Lowe's to repeat stance at bi-annual testimony before parliament today
  • Support 0.7200-10, pivotal at 0.7135-60; resistance 0.7310-30

aud: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 05:00 PM
G10FX: USD To Lead Another Leg Higher In FX Carry; Bullish AUD/NZD On Relative Basis - BofAML
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 01:00 PM

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses the shifting dynamics of FX carry, and notes that the USD resides firmly on the asset side of the FX carry spectrum, currently occupying the top yield rank.

"USD has been a top yielder in G10; a fundamentally-strong USD with asset status supports FX carry and further dollar gains

We believe USD will contribute to another leg higher in FX carry for fundamental reasons (strong cyclical position, monetary policy divergence). Our confidence in AUD and NZD - the other two currencies currently on the asset side of the strategy - is lower," BofAML argues.

On a relative basis, BofAML views are constructive AUD vs NZD (see here). "Of the three currencies currently included on the asset side of FX carry, NZD is clearly the weak fundamental link," BofAML adds. 

BofA Merrill Lynch Research/Market Commentary
Aug 16 - 03:48 PM
GBP/USD - Bid On Profit-Taking Fades, Option Int Anchors Spot
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 02:30 PM
  • GBP/USD ending NorAm 1.2706 +0.06%, NY range 1.2754-1.2691
  • Pair bid in early NY ahead of 10AM NY option cut expiries 1.26, 1.27, 1.28
  • Profit-taking on recent USD longs short-lived as DXY back to flat on day
  • GBP/USD support 1.2662 Aug 15/2018 low, then 1.2610 lower 30-week Bolli
  • EUR/GBP flat on day ends NY 0.8937, reverses early rise to 0.8959
  • Significant option int for Friday anchors GBP & EUR; Click here

GBP Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - Helped North By Short-Covering Amid Turkey Focus
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 10:25 AM
  • Short-covering helped inflate cable to 1.2754 after 1.2735 vaulted
  • 1.2735 was Wednesday's high--before it slid to a 14-month low of 1.2662
  • Catalyst for 1.2735 break was modest rise in risk appetite amid Turkey focus
  • Albayrak says Turkey will emerge stronger from lira crisis nL5N1V70CX
  • Offers just shy of 1.2735 kept a lid on GBP/USD in Asia and during Ldn am
  • 1.2700 was low after Trump hailed USD strength nL1N1V70HJ nL1N1V70HG

GBPUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 01:24 PM
NZD: Long AUD/NZD & Short NZD/CAD Attractive Relative-Value Trades M-Term - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 11:30 AM

Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research thinks that around current levels selling NZD on the crosses against AUD and CAD ( long AUD/NZD, short NZD/CAD) are good relative-value trades over the medium-term.

"Sterling has no obvious source of support other than its valuation, and CAD, AUD and NZD are all held back by the Chinese slowdown. Across all of EM, there are political, trade, and China-related growth concerns.

Long AUD/NZD and short NZD/CAD are relative value trades, that have appeal. Bigger overall themes that drive the dollar will have to wait," SocGen argues/ 

Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
Aug 16 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - Potential For Better Levels To Join The Trend
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 09:50 AM
  • Stalling to the downside but price action tight and lacking direction
  • A small hammer candle Wed might point to an adjustment higher
  • Full blown reversal not in the charts and only minor damage to the trend
  • Favour selling into strength, offer by 1.2890, for bearish resumption
  • Key s/t levels, 1.2662 Wednesday low and 1.2827 Tuesday high
  • Weekly candles pointing to doji potential this week: pause before lower

GBP/USD Trader:

EUR/GBP Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 11:00 AM
USD: Extreme Bullishness Warrants Caution & Scope For Squeezes - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 08:48 AM

MUFG Research discusses the USD outlook and flags a scope for aggressive squeezes amid the extreme prevailing bullish USD sentiment.

"The turnaround for the dollar follows what we would describe as sentiment that was starting to feel extreme. EUR/USD had declined in ten out of twelve trading days and Dodd Frank option flows had also indicated extreme levels of positioning for the downside in non-dollar currencies. Speculative positioning data also indicated, according to our measure, seven consecutive weeks of building long dollar speculative positions by leveraged accounts," MUFG notes. 

"But context is always important when assessing performance and while over the period since April the dollar’s performance is impressive, a view of performance over a longer period of time is less so. 

So that is worth remembering during this period of strong bullish sentiment for the US dollar. The performance of the dollar since President Trump’s victory is much less impressive considering what has unfolded over that period – reason for caution over the outlook ahead we believe," MUFG argues. 

BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Aug 16 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-RBA Governor May Weigh In On AUD/USD Drop Friday
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 06:40 AM

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has an opportunity to comment on AUD/USD's drop to a 19-month low when he makes his semi-annual appearance before the Australian House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics Friday.
AUD/USD had been trading between 0.7300 and 0.7500 for nearly two months before breaking the base of that range as the Turkish lira tanked last Friday.
On the day of his last appearance before the parliamentary committee in February, when AUD/USD was trading close to 0.80, Lowe said the RBA would prefer a lower AUD exchange rate to higher nS9N1O5015.
Sentiment has shifted towards the U.S. dollar since then, with the USD index hitting a 14-month high Wednesday, when option-related bids prevented AUD/USD from breaking below 0.7200 (option barrier level).
Data published Thursday showed Australia's jobless rate fell to a six-year low last month nL4N1V71N0.
Related comments: nL4N1V71IK nL1N1V705J

AUDUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 07:24 AM
USD/JPY - Rides Out Wednesday Slump With Demand Mid-110S
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 06:00 AM
  • Monday's recovery into the close shook the underlying bear bias
  • Despite a dollar wobble Wednesday USD/JPY looks to be drawing demand
  • Talk of Tokyo bids 110.40-50 and a suggestion of stops above 111.50
  • Mkts remain unsettled by the Turkish tumult and this will temper Yen gains
  • Near-term action likely contained within daily cloud: 110.37-111.18
  • UST 10yr yield firmer, offers support, but within Wed's 2.8370-2.900% range

USD/JPY Daily Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD - Up Before UK Data On Hopes Of US-China Trade Thaw
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 03:00 AM
  • Cable rise to eye 1.2735 fuelled by risk bounce on US/China trade talks news
  • See: nL4N1V71F9. 1.2735 was Wednesday's Ldn am high (pre-UK CPI data)
  • 1.2662 was Wednesday's 14-month low, as USD benefitted from risk aversion
  • Asia low was 1.2686, before the news of the late August US/China trade talks
  • Cable may extend north if UK July retail sales above +0.2 pct f/c at 0830GMT
  • Large 1.2700 option expiry for 10am ET NY cut (1400GMT), GBP 1.7bln strike

UK retail sales: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 05:00 AM
USD/JPY - Bull View Holds While Daily Cloud Base Is Intact
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 02:50 AM
  • Bull picture less convincing after late Wed recovery and long wicked candle
  • Mon's hammer and Tues confirmation weakened by a near bear engulfing line
  • Daily cloud base support at 110.37 could be pivotal today
  • Still stand by the bull call and 112.00 test while daily cloud base contains
  • Now need a close above the 10DMA to strengthen the view
  • Risk of price panning out sideways within daily cloud n/t, 110.37-111.18

USD/JPY Trader:

USD/JPY Daily Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Aug 16 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - Wednesday Candle A Warning Of Supply Fade
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 16 - 02:20 AM
  • Potential change in the short-term trend after late Wed rally
  • Bull signal given by Wed's hammer candle: early signs of Thurs confirmation
  • Too early to call the turn just yet but watching today's close
  • Slowing bear momentum and bull cross on stochs adds to the potential
  • We maintain an offer by the 30MMA and Aug 14 high, 1.1425
  • Tight stop likely above a 50% Fibo, 1.1619 and 1.1301 and 10DMA, 1.1465

EUR/USD Trader:

EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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