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Aug 25 - 12:55 AM

Societe Generale: Views on AUD, NZD, JPY, GBP, NOK, SEK

By eFXdata  —  Aug 24 - 04:30 PM

Societe Generale discusses a rather complex environment where central banks are battling inflation, economic indicators like PMIs are weakening, and the equity markets remain optimistic. Here is how they view several currencies in this context:

  1. AUD and NZD (Australian and New Zealand Dollar):
    • These currencies are considered vulnerable given falling yields and ongoing struggles in China's economy, a significant trade partner for both countries.
  2. JPY (Japanese Yen):
    • The JPY is expected to remain within its current trading range for some time. However, a stronger yen seems "inevitable over time" according to SocGen.
  3. GBP (British Pound):
    • While sterling has challenges, SocGen suggests it might be too soon for a significant drop ("Wile E. Coyote moment"). They're cautious about being overly bearish on GBP at this point.
  4. NOK and SEK (Norwegian and Swedish Krone):
    • Given their "super-attractive levels," SocGen recommends "slowly buying more NOK and SEK," with the expectation that they will strengthen significantly by this time next year.

Conclusion: Societe Generale is focused on the tension between slowing economic indicators and central banks' determination to fight inflation. This makes the FX picture complex. However, they are looking favorably at NOK and SEK due to their attractive valuations, while being cautious but not overly bearish on GBP. They consider AUD and NZD as vulnerable currencies, and foresee a stronger JPY in the long run.

Société Générale Research/Market Commentary


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