Synopsis:

EUR/CHF has risen toward the upper end of its 0.93-0.95 range as resilient risk appetite and rebounding DM rates have worsened CHF’s rate disadvantage. Credit Agricole expects EUR/CHF to rise towards 0.97 later in 2025 as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) moves toward a zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP) amid ultra-low inflation.

Key Points:

1. CHF Rate Disadvantage Deepens

   • CHF is under pressure as developed market (DM) rates rebound, exacerbating the negative rate differential.
   • The SNB is expected to maintain near-zero rates this year, reinforcing CHF's role as a funding currency.

2. EUR/CHF Outlook

   • High CHF valuations and contained volatility make it an attractive funding currency.
   • EUR/CHF is expected to rise towards 0.97 later this year, assuming global uncertainties fade and rate differentials widen.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole sees further CHF weakness ahead, as ZIRP policies, low inflation, and a widening rate differential make it an ideal funding currency. If global risk sentiment remains steady, EUR/CHF should climb toward 0.97 later in 2025.

(Adds chart)

• USD/JPY slides with Trsy yields after PPI report backs Fed cuts

• Broadly weaker USD, lower oil also on optimism about Ukraine also weighs

• Trump outlined reciprocal tariff plan in memorandum

• Added Ukraine would have a seat in peace process, trusts Putins intent

• Pair eyes 152.74 200-DMA after sliding below 153.25 100-DMA

• Resist: 153.60 cloud base, 154.40 21-DMA and 153.82 55-DMA
yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Feb 13 (Reuters) - Dollar index fell on Thursday, weighed down by PPI data, which markets interpreted as leaving the Fed on course for rate cuts later this year, and optimism about Ukraine peace negotiations. The dollar later trimmed losses after U.S. President Donald Trump started outlining his plans for reciprocal tariffs. Treasury 10-year yields slid after details of the January producer price data suggested core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is likely easing. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine would participate "one way or another" in any talks to end the war, but there would be a separate U.S.-Russian track to the talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy spoke with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk about conditions necessary to reach a lasting peace in Ukraine. EUR/USD hit a two-week high of 1.0446 at the close of the London session before trimming gains. Positive momentum from the Feb. 3 low supports pair though bulls remain concerned about U.S. tariff proposals, future European Central Bank rate cuts and upcoming German elections. A close above the Jan. 27 doji near 1.05 is required to see bullish momentum build.

EUR/CHF fell after a Swiss inflation report suggested prices may be basing, while broad dollar weakness sent USD/CHF back below its 200-DMA to its 21-DMA at 0.9428. USD/JPY slid beneath its 100-DMA at 153.25 and set a 152.93 session low before stabilizing. The pair largely tracked Treasury yields though monthly hedging and fix-related activity was also involved. Higher lows and a close above its 200-DMA at 152.74 supports bulls but its inability to test the key pivot level of 155 and wider option skews keeps bears optimistic. GBP/USD rose to a one-week high of 1.2542 before paring gains, buoyed partly by a report that Britain's economy unexpectedly grew in the final quarter of last year.

Treasury yields fell 5 to 10 basis points. The 2s-10s curve was down 4 basis points at +22.2bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.53% with materials leading sector gainers.

WTI oil dipped to a new year-to-date low on Ukraine optimism before finishing nearly unchanged.

Gold rose 0.70% and copper gained 1.5% as the USD weakened. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.47%, USD/JPY -0.86%, GBP/USD +0.68%, AUD/USD +0.33%, =USD -0.48%, EUR/JPY -0.47%, GBP/JPY -0.23%, AUD/JPY -0.63%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• GBP$ firm into NY close, +0.6% at 1.2520, NorAm range 1.2542-1.2454

• Above-f/c PPI shrugged off as components hint at lower inflation

• Tariff delay talk and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire optimism weigh on USD

• Comforting US PPI might not do much for sterling

• Trader await next week's UK employment, price data for policy clues

• GBP$ res 1.2542 Thurs high, 1.2571 50% of 1.3043-1.21, 1.2620 dly cloud top

• Supt 1.2498 rising 10-HMA, 1.2442 Thursday low, 1.2382 flat 30-DMA

GBP Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

MUFG expects further JPY strength and downside risks for USD/JPY, driven by reversing global inflation trends, declining US yields, and BoJ rate hikes. While USD/CNY upside could exert short-term pressure on JPY, JPY is likely to weaken less than other G10 currencies due to its safe-haven status.

Key Points:

1. JPY Strength Driven by BoJ Policy Shift & Market Dynamics

   • BoJ's 25bp rate hike (to 0.50%) was the biggest increase since 2007, signaling a shift away from ultra-loose policy.
   • Reversing global inflation trends and falling global yields reduce the previous USD/JPY bullish drivers.

2. Trump Tariffs & USD/CNY Upside Pose Short-Term Risks

   • Initial optimism on tariffs faded, leading to renewed USD strength and potential near-term JPY weakness.
   • If USD/CNY moves higher, some JPY selling pressure may emerge, though JPY should outperform other G10 currencies.

3. Long-Term Drivers Point to USD/JPY Decline

   • Ultra-low Japanese rates were a major factor in USD/JPY rising from 115 to 160 in 2022-2023.
   • With those conditions now reversing, JPY is likely to strengthen in the coming quarters.

Conclusion:

MUFG maintains a bearish USD/JPY outlook, expecting JPY strength to accelerate as global inflation eases, US yields decline, and BoJ policy normalizes further. While short-term risks exist from USD/CNY upside, the broader trend favors USD/JPY downside in 2025.

• GBP$ firm into Europe close, +0.72% at 1.2534; Thurs range 1.2540-1.2442

• Rallied after PPI components hint at softer prices, eyes Feb 5 high 1.2550

• Reciprocal tariff delay, Russia-Ukraine ceasefire speculation aids GBP rise

• Above f/c UK GDP, output data relieves some lingering fiscal tension as well

• Next week's UK employment and price data key for GBP bulls

• GBP$ res 1.2540 Thurs high, 1.2571 50% of 1.3043-1.21, 1.2643 dly cloud top

• Supt 1.2492 rising 10-HMA, 1.2442 Thursday low, 1.2382 the 30-DMA

GBP Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

ANZ expects the JPY to outperform G10 currencies in 2025, driven by BoJ policy normalization, weaker global growth, and higher risk aversion. While USD/JPY may decline toward 150, greater JPY gains are expected against EUR and CHF, making short EUR/JPY and short CHF/JPY preferred trades.

Key Points:

1. JPY Strength Driven by Macro Trends

   • Despite broad USD strength, USD/JPY has not reached new highs, signaling a shift in market dynamics.
   • Elevated FX volatility is discouraging carry trades, reducing speculative long USD/JPY positions compared to 2022-24.
   • Weaker global growth and tariff risks increase demand for safe-haven assets like JPY.

2. BoJ Policy Normalization Supports JPY

   • Growing services inflation and rising wages are pushing the BoJ toward further rate hikes.
   • Japan’s 2024 GDP data shows stronger consumption, reinforcing the case for higher domestic rates.
   • BoJ expected to reach a 1% terminal rate by end-2025, which, while still below US rates, reduces the appeal of short JPY positions.

3. Short EUR/JPY and Short CHF/JPY Trades Favored

   • JPY gains will be more pronounced against EUR and CHF than against USD.
   • Weaker European growth outlook and dovish ECB policy stance make EUR vulnerable against JPY.
   • CHF depreciation amid SNB easing increases downside risk for CHF/JPY.

Conclusion:

ANZ maintains a bullish JPY outlook, favoring short EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY as BoJ tightening, weaker global growth, and reduced carry appeal drive yen outperformance in 2025.

• USD/CAD slammed through range lows (1.4260), nears 1.42

• Potential tariff delay, Russia-Ukraine peace hopes spark drop

• CNBC note reciprocal tariffs may be delayed until Apr 1

• Though confirmation from Trump will be needed

• Meanwhile, Ukraine will take part in talks with Russia & U.S.

• Given sizeable CAD shorts, squeeze risk is elevated

• USD/CAD support sits at 1.4178 (Nov 25 high), 1.4104 (100DMA)

• That said, a false break of 1.4260 would be a concern for shorts
USDCAD hourly chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a 0.1% decline in headline retail sales for January, but core (control) sales rising 0.3%. Industrial production is expected to increase 0.5%, mainly driven by utilities usage, while manufacturing output sees a modest 0.1% gain, narrowly supported by autos and planes.

Key Points:

1. Retail Sales (Friday, Feb 16)

   • Headline retail sales expected to decline by 0.1%M.
   • Control group sales forecasted to rise by 0.3%M.
   • Wildfires could pose downside risks, but models already account for them.

2. Industrial Production (Friday, Feb 16)

   • Expected to rise 0.5%M, primarily due to higher utilities usage.
   • Manufacturing output up only 0.1%M, with gains narrowly driven by autos and planes.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley sees weak headline retail sales but solid core growth, with industrial production gains mostly tied to utilities usage rather than broad-based manufacturing strength. Wildfires present a risk, but historical impacts have been inconsistent.

Synopsis:

BofA expects the RBA to cut rates by 25bps to 4.1% at its February meeting, though risks remain for a hold. While AUD is near its projected Q1 trough (0.62), it is too early to fade tariff-related risk premiums, with US trade investigations and China policy meetings in focus over the next six weeks.

Key Points:

1. RBA Rate Cut (25bps to 4.1%) Expected:

   • Q4 trimmed mean inflation fell to 3.2% (20bps below RBA’s forecast).
   • Supports gradual easing, but a February hold remains a risk.

2. AUD Outlook:

   • AUD has been highly sensitive to tariff risks, briefly hitting post-COVID lows.
   • Too early to fade tariff risk premium until US trade investigations and China policy meetings conclude.
   • Gradual AUD recovery expected in Q2, led by USD depreciation and later China stimulus effects.
   • Higher-than-expected RBA terminal rate (3.6%) supports a medium-term AUD floor.

Conclusion:

BofA expects a 25bps RBA rate cut but acknowledges risks for a hold. While AUD is near its forecast trough, tariff-related risks remain, and it is too early to fade downside risks. A recovery is expected in Q2, driven by USD weakness and China stimulus.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.6299 in Asia on US yield , USD/CNH drops

• Sellers emerged however; yen buying sank AUD/JPY which weighed on AUD/USD

• Iron-ore , stock drops added weight as did USD/CNH's bounce

• Trump post saying "Today is the big one: reciprocal tariffs" also weighed

• 0.6259 hit in Europe morning, NY opened near 0.6265, pair down -0.28% early

• Move below daily cloud and 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs concern AUD/USD longs

• Rising monthly RSI, monthly bull hammer gives longs some comfort though

• US weekly jobless claims, January PPI are key data risks in NY Thursday
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Feb 13 (Reuters) - FX traders can use a simple option to insure against a EUR/USD drop, something spot normally does in February. It's not usually a good idea to be long EUR/USD in February.

The euro rose to a one-week high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as news that Washington aims to begin talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine overshadowed a hotter-than-expected U.S. consumer prices reading overnight. However, the thick daily cloud resistance that currently spans the 1.0384-1.0581 region, should continue to limit the upside.

As 14-day momentum turned negative last week, that highlights the recent shift in risk back to the downside. Those who want to protect against a short-term EUR/USD relapse could buy a one-week 1.0410 EUR put option at a cost of 45 pips, priced with spot at 1.0416. Profit potential is unlimited if spot is below the 1.0365 break-even at the February 20 expiry. Losses are limited to the 45-pip premium paid.
Daily Chart:


Fenics Pricing Grid:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Nikkei ends more than 1% higher as weaker yen boosts appetite

• Yen consolidates after dropping on Wed on U.S. inflation data

• Wednesday saw USD/JPY jump from 152.45 to 153.80, according to EBS data

• Thursday has seen a 153.90-154.66 range, fully contained by Wednesday's move

• FX traders should beware USD/JPY's upside is limited

• The cloud currently spans the 153.60-155.63 region

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem with each other

• 30 and 60-day USD/JPY, EUR/JPY correlation coefficient remains above +0.50

Daily Chart:


Correlation Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD's recent rebound was limited by thick daily cloud resistance

• The daily cloud currently spans the 0.6280-0.6430 region

• Scope for losses sub 2025 0.6089 low, which in turn would unmask 0.6000

• A break above the daily cloud needed to shift the bias back to the upside

• Short at 0.6300. AUD/USD Trader . Previous

Daily Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Thick daily cloud resistance, that currently spans the 1.0384-1.0581 region

• That should continue to limit near-term recovery attempts

• 14-day momentum turned negative last week, highlighting the negative outlook

• We are short at 1.0400 for eventual losses to our 1.0150 target

• Meanwhile our stop is currently at 1.0500, above key resistance levels

• EUR/USD Trader . Previous update

Daily Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Early Thursday and a pullback against the recent bull run

• Our 0.8318 long still in play but looking more vulnerable

• A drop back inside the daily cloud could put the trade at risk

• Daily Ichimoku cloud parameters are tight, 0.8325-0.8335

• The Feb. 17 0.8334-35 cloud twist could also drag on the cross

• Fourteen day momentum remains negative but is fading

• Daily RSI is flat lining at neutral levels

• We maintain our long for now

• EUR/GBP Trader EUR/GBP Trader: [page:2343]
EUR/GBP daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Cable rises to 1.2515 as GBP benefits from better than forecast UK GDP data

• Dec GDP up 0.4% vs 0.1% expected; Q4 GDP up 0.1% vs minus 0.1% expected

• 1.2515 is highest level since Feb 5 (1.2550 was one-month high that day)

• Asian session top was 1.5 pips shy of 1.2500 (before UK GDP data release)

• Rise towards 1.25 fuelled by Ukraine peace talks. 1.2377 = low on hot US CPI

• BoE's Pill 'cautious' about further rate cuts. Echoes view from MPC's Greene

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Koonenberry Gold fall as much as 5.9% to A$0.032, their biggest intraday pct fall since Feb. 7

• Mineral explorer announces share placement to raise A$2.0 million ($1.26 million ) at an issue price of A$0.030 per share

• Issue price at a discount of 11.8% to stock's last closing

• Funds from placement to accelerate exploration at co's Enmore and Lachlan projects - KNB

• Stock has risen 153.8% this year, as of 0439 GMT
($1 = 1.5891 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• +0.1% at the top of an active 1.2442-1.2462 Asian range on FX Matching

• UK housing market cools in January but surveyors stay upbeat - RICS

• UK launches an offshore wind farm incentive -'Clean Industry Bonus' scheme

• GDP, Construction, Index of services, IP and manufacturing lead today's data

• Charts- 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages base, as 21-day Bolli bands contract

• Neutral daily momentum studies - no significant bias at familiar levels

• Tuesday's 1.2332 base and then the February 1.2249 low are initial support

• Last week's 1.2550 high and then the 1.2616 2025 top are first resistance
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's Castle Minerals rise as much as 60% to A$0.004, their biggest intraday gain since June 2020

• Stock at its highest level since Oct. 2024

• Mineral explorer says strong gold intercepts at its Kpali Gold Prospect located in Ghana

• Near 69.7 mln shares change hands, vs 30-day average volume of 2.7 mln shares

• Stock has risen 75% this year, as of 0208 GMT

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Adelong Gold rise as much as 63.6% to A$0.009, their highest level since June 19

• Stock posts its biggest single-day since January 17, 2023; last up 45.5%

• Gold explorer enters deal to buy a high grade gold project in Victoria from a unit of Canada's Great Pacific Gold Corp

• Deal valued at A$700,000 ($439,670.00)

• About 55.1 mln shares change hands, vs the 30-day average of nearly 937,000

• Stock up 60% this year, including the day's move
($1 = 1.5921 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Aaditya Govind Rao in Bengaluru)

• USD/CNY fix neutral estimate 7.3106, up from previous

• PBOC fix still tightly leashed, but may edge up from 7.1710

• Sharp rise in UST yields, after US CPI, lifted DXY

• USD/JPY was the biggest beneficiary, with a +1.3% gain

• Powell cautions on reading too much into CPI

• Trump says interest rates should be lower
CNYFIX:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Steady after closing up 0.2% in a volatile session amid Ukraine optimism

• Trump's first big foray into Ukraine diplomacy - speaks to Putin, Zelenskiy

• Rising UST yields on strong CPI, cautious Fed saw EUR retreat from the highs

• Trump says he will sign reciprocal tariffs order soon amid trade war fears

• Should the tariff decision be announced in Asia, expect volatility

• Charts - neutral 5, 10 & 21 DMAs as 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• Net positive daily momentum studies - no significant bias at familiar levels

• Feb 4 1.0272 low, then last week's 2025 1.0125 base are initial support

• 1.0443 high last week, then the Jan 27th 1.0534 top initial resistance

• 1.0340 908mln and 1.0390 834mln, 1.0400 996mln close strikes for Feb 13th
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs forecasts core retail sales to grow by +0.2% in January (vs. consensus +0.3%) and expects headline retail sales to decline by -0.2%, impacted by higher gasoline prices and weaker auto sales.

Key Points:

1. Core Retail Sales (+0.2%) Slows:

   • Modest growth in card spending indicators.
   • Colder-than-usual weather likely weighed on consumer activity.

2. Headline Retail Sales (-0.2%) Weakens:

   • Higher gasoline prices provided some offset.
   • Lower auto sales dragged overall figures down.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs sees retail sales moderating in January, with headline figures turning negative (-0.2%) and core sales growth slowing (+0.2%). Weather and auto sector weakness likely contributed to the slowdown.