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Feb 06 - 07:24 AM

AUD/NZD - COMMENT-AUD/NZD Reversal Risk As Speed Bumps Slow AUD Bulls

By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 06 - 06:20 AM

AUD/NZD bulls face two major technical hurdles, daily and weekly ichimoku clouds.
Daily action is already reversing after nearing the 1.0448 cloud base today.
A close back below the 55-DMA, 1.0426, could trigger a bigger pullback.
AUD/NZD could revisit levels around 1.0250-1.0300 near-term.
Sentiment swings in reaction to coronavirus news have, on balance, helped the AUD more.
AUD/NZD has gained 1.35% since late January, retracing some of the 5.1% slide seen between November and December after a more hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand tone at its November meeting.
RBNZ meets on Feb.
12 and expectations are for no change.
On central-bank policy alone the NZD could find its feet.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady this week but further cuts are expected in 2020.
The outlook has been clouded by the China virus and lately by China's tariff cuts on some U.S. imports.
If trade optimism gains a footing, the current account divergence, Aussie surplus versus NZ deficit, could slow any fall in AUD/NZD.


AUD/NZD Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

AUD/NZD Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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