Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research flags the risk of the US administration abandoning the 'strong USD policy.'
"We have noted President Trump's frequent comments against the strong USD in recent weeks. His statements about the USD are becoming more frequent and more targeted, and are combined with increasing attacks on other central banks for doing too much and the Fed for doing too little," BofAML notes.
"We see a risk of further escalation of such USD rhetoric and even direct currency intervention, as the US economy is weakening and the USD is overvalued, which should put a ceiling on the USD for now.
However, we also see a risk that the Trump administration may decide to abandon the "strong USD policy," which would not violate G20 commitments and could be a game changer. We do not believe the historically low FX vol is pricing such risks," BofAML argues.