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Oct 09 - 11:55 AM

EUR/USD - REFILE-BUZZ-FX Options Wrap-Clues On EUR/USD Outlook And GBP's EU Summit Risk

By Richard Pace  —  Oct 09 - 09:55 AM

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Despite EUR/USD probing above 1.1800 Friday, implied volatility continues its descent, with one-month sold 7.1 and one-year below 7.0, down from 7.8 and 7.2 this week.

Risk reversals little changed, maintaining a EUR call premium around 0.4 in one-month and 0.55 in one-year.

Combined with light two-way flows, the price action is consistent with range trading, albeit with an upside lean, but spot gains could prove limited without a renewed catalyst nL1N2H00AM.

One-week expiry options now capture the European Union summit, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's self-imposed Brexit deadline.
It's not a hard deadline but could still create some Brexit noise and related GBP volatility.
Implied volatility has been marked around 1.5 vols higher to reflect that nL1N2H009J.

Falling USD/JPY implied volatility highlights the lack of actual volatility as spot falters on big technical resistance and sell orders above 106.00.
Asia flows tip in favour of JPY longs and may signal setback risk nL1N2H009P.

USD/TRY record highs extend - focus is on 8.00 barriers nL1N2H0086.

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1-3-12-month EUR/USD risk reversals Click here

EUR/USD 1-month implied volatility Click here

1-week GBP implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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