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Oct 06 - 02:55 PM

ING: A Hesitant Step Away from the Dollar Despite High Valuations

By eFXdata  —  Oct 06 - 01:30 PM

Synopsis: While the rising yields and potential for further Federal Reserve rate hikes drive expectations for a stronger US dollar, ING believes that in the short term, it might be too costly to sell off the currency.

Key Points:

1. Lingering Gap in Rate Expectations:

  • ING's rates team has identified a potential target of 5.0% for 10-year treasuries.
  • There exists a notable gap between the Federal Reserve's dot plot and the current rate expectations for 2023 and 2024.
  • Given these circumstances, a spike in USD 2-year swap rates to levels surpassing 5.0% is a distinct possibility in the immediate future.

2. Dollar's Valuation:

  • Despite being on the higher side in terms of valuation, the dollar is seen as expensive to sell in the current market scenario.

3. The Influence of the Bond Market:

  • Instabilities in the bond market can potentially bolster the dollar, making it a stronghold for the time being.
  • ING suggests that the DXY (Dollar Index) has the potential to climb back above the 107.00 mark either today or early next week.

Closing Remarks: Given the short-term dynamics, ING advises caution for investors considering offloading the US dollar. The present market conditions, coupled with future rate expectations, indicate a sustained strength in the currency.

ING Research/Market Commentary


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