A big issue for EUR/USD traders is that they are not short as the pair tumbles toward last year's low at 1.0448 and a potential break that ends a nearly two-year quiet period.

The longer the quiet spell, the more volatile conditions are likely to be in the wake of a breakout for which traders are less likely to be prepared.

Speculators who have been paring shorts and booking profits are certainly not so ready as they were a few weeks ago with less than one billion euros of a an almost 7 billion bet remaining.

While they have been booking profits in November, EUR/USD has tumbled from 1.0937 to a 2024 low at 1.0462 which is just 14 pips shy of last year's low.

Should this largely unexpected move lower also surprise those who have reasons to trade EUR/USD that are not speculative, likely given the long period this pair has barely moved, there could be a big and sustained reaction as hedges are adjusted to reflect the likelihood that this pair drops further.

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