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Aug 10 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Remains Firm After Data Hints At Less-Hawkish Fed Path

By Paul Spirgel  —  Aug 10 - 10:25 AM

GBP/USD has backed away from its post-CPI and jobless claims-related gains above 1.28.
However, since the data has done little to shift expectations for Fed policy at the September 20 FOMC meeting, the steady Fed vs more-hawkish BoE outlook is likely to keep GBP/USD bid amid diverging UK-U.S.
rate expectations.

Sterling traders focus now shifts to UK CPI on August 16 for hints at UK inflation and how it may affect BoE policy, growth and GBP/USD pricing in the near-term.

IRPR on Eikon is forecasting a 60% chance for a 25bp BoE rate hike as the UK continues to struggle with its well-above target inflation.
Should the upcoming UK CPI data continue its precipitous decline, traders may begin to adjust positions and price a more dovish BoE rate tack pushing GBP/USD further away from its July 13 high at 1.3144.

With both the Fed and BoE rate meetings at the end of September, near-term data is likely to hold little sway, barring a colossal miss, as traders eye late August's Jackson Hole Symposium, core PCE data and early September's U.S. payroll data any of which are more apt to move markets given their proximity to central bank decisions.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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