Sept 2 (Reuters) - History suggests the euro tends to gain against the yen in September but the chance of this happening again in 2026 depends on a mixed technical outlook.

EUR/JPY's seasonal performance shows positive returns in 16 of the last 26 Septembers, or 62% of the time. However seasonality should not be viewed in isolation and is most useful when supported by other factors.

The Bank of Japan will debate raising interest rates including in September with a focus on whether inflationary risks were heightening, Ueda said on Tuesday, signalling a strong chance of a hike this month. That has put pressure on EUR/JPY, helping drive the cross lower at the start of September.

EUR/JPY's downside could be limited by the key 183.50 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 179.44 to 186.02 August (EBS) rise, but a break and daily close under this level would shift the overall bias back to the downside. That would reduce the chance the cross ends September in positive territory.
Daily Chart


Daily Chart

(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Louise Heavens)