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Aug 01 - 10:55 AM

MUFG: Disappointment Over RBA's Stance Leads to Closure of Long AUD/NZD Position

By eFXdata  —  Aug 01 - 09:25 AM

MUFG has shed light on its decision-making strategy following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent policy announcement. The bank's stance, which contrasted with the market's expectations, has prompted the Japanese banking giant to reconsider its position on AUD/NZD.

Key Points:

  1. RBA's Policy Decision: The Australian dollar encountered downward pressure as the market grappled with the RBA's decision to keep its policy rate unaltered at 4.10%. This move has effectively muted prospects of additional hikes in the present tightening phase.

  2. Revised Market Expectations: Following the RBA's announcement, the Australian rate market has recalibrated its outlook. It now factors in a mere 16bps of hikes by year-end and a marginal 5bps hike leading up to the RBA's September policy meeting.

  3. MUFG's Trading Strategy: Adapting to the shifting landscape, MUFG has opted to exit its long AUD/NZD trading position. The underpinnings of their initial trade idea, predicated on a divergence in monetary policy between the RBA and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), no longer hold water given the recent developments.


The RBA's recent policy choice has cast ripples across the currency trading realm, prompting institutions like MUFG to modify their strategies. While the Australian dollar bears the brunt of dampened rate hike expectations, MUFG believes that the AUD/NZD trade dynamics, centered on a projected policy disparity between the RBA and RBNZ, are no longer valid under the current circumstances.

MUFG Research/Market Commentary


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