SEB and Credit Agricole offer their analyses of the FOMC minutes from the November meeting, focusing on the Federal Reserve's policy stance, the implications for future rate decisions, and the potential impact on the USD.
- Policy Rate and QT Unchanged: SEB notes that the FOMC maintained the policy rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range and continued its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy, as expected.
- Written Guidance and Financial Conditions: The guidance signaled an upside bias based on data and other developments. The addition of tighter financial conditions in the minutes suggests that rising bond yields are partially accomplishing the Fed's objectives.
- Chair Powell's Dovish Remarks: Powell's comments during the press conference, indicating that the Fed is nearing the end of its hiking cycle and will “proceed carefully,” were perceived as dovish.
- December Meeting Outlook: While there's a possibility of a pause in rate hikes in December, SEB acknowledges that the door remains open for another hike if upcoming data is disappointing. Positive supply trends noted by Powell might lead the Fed to accept stronger GDP/employment growth.
- Key Focus Areas: SEB is interested in how much emphasis was placed on the rise in yields in the decision-making process, whether FOMC members align with Powell's views on nearing the end of the hiking cycle, and discussions about the balance of risks.
Credit Agricole's View:
- USD and Market Rates Outlook: Credit Agricole suggests that the USD might regain stability alongside stabilizing long rates.
- Relevance of November FOMC Minutes: The bank views the November FOMC minutes as possibly outdated, unlikely to provide significant insights into the Fed's reaction function.
- USD Performance around Thanksgiving: Historically, the USD tends to hold up well before Thanksgiving but usually weakens in the following week.
SEB's review of the FOMC minutes highlights a dovish tilt in the Fed's communication and anticipates potential shifts in the December meeting based on economic data and discussions on financial conditions. Credit Agricole, meanwhile, casts doubt on the relevance of the November minutes for providing new insights, focusing instead on the USD's historical performance around Thanksgiving. Both analyses underscore the significance of the Fed's future policy decisions and their potential impact on financial markets and the USD.