• EUR/USD consolidates around 1.1400 after its recovery from 1-year lows at 1.1325 to 1.1443 last week

• Massive nearby FX option expiries and related hedging flows could help contain into Thursdays US NFP release

• There are 2.6 billion euros 1.1385-1.1400 Monday, 5.5 billion 1.1400-20 Tuesday, 2.4 billion at 1.1400 Thursday

• Close below 1.1335 - 38.2% Fibo retrace of 1.0125-1.2084 rise opens 1.1300 barriers and 50% at 1.1105

• 1.1449 is key to the topside - 23.6% Fibo retrace of April-June 1.1849-1.1325 drop - close above can relieve pressure

• FX option implied volatility and its downside over upside strike premiums off highs for now - downside pressure easing

• Related - Month-end flows favour USD - Deutsche says fade. US/Iran update: Hormuz holds - for now
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


EUR/USD FX option strike expiries June 29-July 3


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)